2025 Wurth 400 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday May 4th, 2025. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: FOX

Last week, Austin Cindric became the 6th different winner in the Cup Series during the 2025 season with a victory at Talladega Superspeedway. While the racing at Talladega was somewhat underwhelming, tomorrow the Cup Series visits Texas Motor Speedway for the running of the Wurth 400. Unlike recent races at Talladega, Texas has been an action-packed venue since the repave and reconfiguration back in 2017. In fact, Texas has averaged more cautions than any other track in the Cup Series with at least 10 cautions in 6 of the last 7 races. Therefore fans and bettors should expect potential chaos throughout 400 miles of racing in the Lone Star State!

Since the reconfiguration, Texas Motor Speedway has produced a ton of chaos because drivers are forced to drive cars on the edge. In fact, drivers are nearly full throttle through turns 3-4 due to the steep 24 degrees of banking. However, the reconfiguration from 2017 flattened the banking in turns 1-2 which forces drivers to wrap the bottom which is consistent with the line at all flat tracks. Despite these facts, Texas still produces tremendous speed which means drivers are pushing the limits, especially through turns 1-2 where there is minimal grip. For these reasons, we often see a lot of accidents and drivers sliding into each other which is the reason for the caution numbers mentioned above.

The reason I want to emphasize the volatile racing at Texas is because the abundance of cautions often leads to a lot of crazy restarts and strategy scenarios. Without question, drivers and teams will be strategizing throughout 400 miles of racing on Sunday in an attempt to execute the best strategies that optimize track position. These strategy scenarios are not always handicapping friendly because strategy is very difficult to predict and often brings drivers into the equation that normally would not be on the basis of pure speed. For those reasons, I believe bettors must be very cautious with their overall betting risks on Sunday and perhaps even take some chances on some of the drivers that provide low-risk/high-yield value!

Cup Series Notes – Texas

• Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 4 career wins at Texas. Denny Hamlin is the only other active driver with multiple wins with 3 in total.
• Behind Busch and Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, and Austin Dillon are all former winners at Texas.
• Chase Briscoe has the best average finishing position (9.0) among active drivers.
• William Byron has a 3.25 average finishing position over the last 4 races at Texas.
• Tyler Reddick has the best average driver rating (111.3) in the Next Gen Car at Texas.
• Tyler Reddick, William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott have a 100+ average driver rating in the Next Gen Car at Texas.
• Brad Keselowski has 8 straight top 10 finishes at Texas including a runner-up finish last year.
• Chris Buescher’s best finish at Texas is only 14th in 15 career starts.
• Ross Chastain has just one top 10 finish in 11 career starts at Texas.
• Kyle Busch has a lackluster 52.6 average driver rating in the Next Gen Car at Texas.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 5 of the last 6 races at Texas.
• There have been at least 10 cautions in 6 of the last 7 races at Texas.

Dynamic Averages

I always review the dynamic averages closely when handicapping races at the 1.5 mile venues. The reason for this handicapping angle is because the 1.5 mile venues have essentially become horsepower style tracks in the Next Gen Car. Since drivers are nearly full speed, performance trends are more easily identifiable and more likely to continue. With those things considered, William Byron unsurprisingly leads our dynamic averages at the 1.5 mile venues with an impressive 114.1 average driver rating. What may be surprising is the fact that Alex Bowman slots into the #2 spot with a strong 107.0 average driver rating. Byron and Bowman are the only drivers with triple digit average driver ratings by a fairly wide margin. Meanwhile, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, and Denny Hamlin are all within their expected ranges from the leaders. Other potential noteworthy observations include AJ Allmendinger (93.0 through two starts) and disappointing metrics from Kyle Busch (61.7) and Brad Keselowski (58.8).

Practice Observations

Carson Hocevar emerged from Saturday’s on-track activities as the fastest man in town. Hocevar won his first career pole with a fast lap of 191.659mph. Hocevar edged out William Byron and Austin Cindric by a mere two one-hundredths of a second to earn the honor to lead the field to the green on Sunday. While qualifying has rarely correlated to success at Texas, track position certainly helps. However, I was more intrigued with practice observations opposed to qualifying results from a handicapping perspective. In practice, Hocevar also posted the fastest lap of both split sessions with a speed of 190.894mph. Hocevar edged out some surprise names at the top of the speed charts which included AJ Allmendinger, Noah Gragson, Kyle Larson, and Michael McDowell in the top 5 in single lap speed.

In terms of consistency which correlates closer to race speed, I thought Austin Cindric had one of the most impressive practice sessions on Saturday. Cindric led the best 10, 15, 20, and 25 lap average categories while also producing one of the best overall averages of the entire session. Outside of Cindric, I thought Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, and Kyle Larson were all very strong on the speed charts. Additionally, I would give notable shoutouts to the lap times produced by Hocevar, Ty Gibbs, and Alex Bowman as well. Meanwhile, drivers that appeared to be “off” in terms of speed included big names like Brad Kesleowski, Kyle Busch, and Ross Chastain. All 3 of those drivers struggled on the stopwatch and appear to be trending in the wrong direction going into Sunday.

Betting Targets

Based on all handicapping angles, I believe William Byron would be my #1 target going into Sunday. Surprisingly, Byron is getting pretty decent value behind guys like Larson, Blaney, and Reddick. While I don’t understand that rationale, I will gladly take a guy that I consider my #1 at 8-1 odds. I believe that is solid value for someone that should be considered as an outright betting favorite. However, admittedly we could make legitimate betting arguments from any of the names in the range of betting “favorites” because all of those drivers have performed well at Texas and at the 1.5 mile venues in general. With that being said, I will gladly take Byron’s value to anchor my betting card!

Behind the top guys, I believe we can take some chances on drivers with solid betting value. My favorite value play on the entire card is Alex Bowman who is currently listed at better than 20-1 odds. Bowman popped in the #2 slot in our dynamic averages and had a very strong practice session on Saturday. Add in factors like momentum, a top 5 pit crew, and I can see a lot of scenarios where the #48 challenges for a victory on Sunday. For those reasons, I like Bowman as a betting target in all formats. Other value options include drivers like Chase Elliott, Bubba Wallace, and Chase Briscoe who are all north of the 20-1 odds range. All 3 of those drivers have shown solid performance trends at Texas and have solid betting value. Additionally, I really like Wallace as a potential sleeper based on the way the 23XI Racing cars have been performing this year.

Lastly, there are several drivers that are receiving huge numbers that have much higher upside than current betting odds suggest. Among those drives includes the likes of AJ Allmendinger, Noah Gragson, and Erik Jones. Allmendinger has been surprisingly strong at the 1.5 mile venues yet is receiving a monstrous 125-1 price tag. While these drivers are obviously risky, I do believe we can use these lucrative price tags to find potential prop bet targets that can produce low-risk/high-reward type wagers. From a fantasy standpoint, there are several big names starting at the rear which includes Elliott, Keselowski, Chatain, and others. All of these drivers deserve fantasy exposure simply based on place-differential upside. Personally, I have more exposure to Elliott and Ryan Preece among those starting towards the rear.

Draftkings 2025 Wurth 400 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Wurth 400 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

William Byron +750 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +800 (1 unit)
Alex Bowman +2200 (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace +2500 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

AJ Allmendinger -125 over Michael McDowell (3 units)
Alex Bowman -145 over Josh Berry (2 units)
Toyota +210 wins Wurth 400 (1 unit)
AJ Allmendinger +360 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)
Chase Briscoe +850 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace +850 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)