2025 Food City 500 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday April 13th, 2025. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Bristol Motor Speedway
TV: FOX

NASCAR’s Cup Series will have the opportunity to battle inside The Last Great Colosseum on Sunday for the running of the Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway. So far this season, betting favorites have dominated the Cup Series with 7 of the 8 wins coming from drivers in the top 5 betting positions. The only exception was Josh Berry’s upset win at Las Vegas. While we would hope to see more surprise winners in the near future, Bristol Motor Speedway has been dominated by a hand-full of drivers over the last several races. In fact, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have combined to win 4 of the last 5 races at Bristol and Hamlin will be seeking a rare 3-peat on Sunday as he looks for his 3rd straight win over the last 3 races!

Despite Bristol’s reputation as a tough half-mile bullring that requires strong short-track skills behind the wheel, there was a large variety of surprising names that qualified inside the top dozen during Saturday’s qualifying session. Among the surprise stories, Alex Bowman qualified on the pole with a fast lap of 128.675mph. Perhaps more surprising was the fact that Ricky Stenhouse Jr qualified on the outside pole. Meanwhile, names like Ty Gibbs, AJ Allmendinger, Carson Hocevar, Justin Haley, and Ty Dillon were among the drivers that qualified in the top 12 starting positions. Needless to say, there are a lot of surprise names at the front of the field and a lot of big names that will be trying to come from deep in the field when the green flag waves on Sunday!

Despite the varying qualifying results, Bristol has typically been somewhat friendly to handicappers especially in H2H match-ups where sharp value is easier to identify. The Cup Series has been very difficult to tackle in futures (win) formats because the field is so close that track position means everything. In recent weeks, we have seen the majority of the Cup Series races determined by restarts and performance on pit road opposed to the drivers/cars with the best speed. For Sunday’s Food City 500, we could easily have more situations that are decided by late race cautions and/or restarts because cautions are common with racing at Bristol. However, we will still throw some futures (win) bets out in hopes to hit a winner; while keeping our sharp focus on H2H match-ups!

Handicapping Bristol

In previous years, I have handicapped Bristol primarily by examining track history and prior performances at Bristol. After all, Bristol requires a unique skill set to make fast laps and typically we see similar names emerge at the front of the field. While prior track history may be the biggest handicapping angle, I have learned that we must take into consideration many other handicapping angles which include current form, recent performance at the short tracks, and practice/qualifying observations to give us our best barometer for expectations on race day. Additionally, don’t rule out more extreme handicapping angles like pit road performance which could become key late in the race. Essentially, bettors should not be hung up on any specific handicapping angle and should consider all angles for racing at Thunder Valley.

Bristol – Cup Series Notes

• Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 8 career victories at Bristol.
• Denny Hamlin (4), Brad Keselowski (3), Kyle Larson (2), Joey Logano (2), and Chris Buescher are also former winners at Bristol.
• Kyle Larson has a lucrative 5.1 average finishing position over the last 10 races at Bristol.
• Denny Hamlin has 2 wins in the last 3 races at Bristol. Hamlin also has the 2nd best average finishing position (8.2) over the last 10 races at Bristol.
• Chase Elliott has the 3rd best average finishing position (9.2) over the last 10 races. Elliott also has two runner-up finishes in the last 4 races.
• Christopher Bell has the highest average driver rating (122.4) at Bristol in the Next Gen Car.
• Christpher Bell, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson have a 120.0+ average driver rating at Bristol in the Next Gen Car. *The next closest competitor is Chris Buescher at 98.9.
• Ty Gibbs has led at least 100 laps in 2 of the last 3 races at Bristol.
• Christopher Bell has top 5 finishes in 3 of the last 4 races at Bristol.
• Chris Buescher has finished 8th or better in 4 of the last 6 races at Bristol.
• Joey Logano has finished outside the top 10 in 8 straight races at Bristol.
• Tyler Reddick has a career average finishing position of 20.3 at Bristol.
• Chevrolet drivers have won just 2 of the last 12 races at Bristol.
• There have been a minimum of 8 cautions in 19 of the last 22 races at Bristol.
• The eventual race winner has started from the top 5 starting positions in 7 of the last 8 races at Bristol.

Practice Observations

While Denny Hamlin may be the driver going for the 3-peat on Sunday, Kyle Larson emerged from Saturday as the driver to beat. Larson dominated the practice session by posting the best consecutive lap average metric in every category. Like Hamlin, Larson has also won 2 of the last 3 races at Bristol and appeared to have one of the fastest cars in practice. Behind Larson, Alex Bowman and Ricky Stenhouse were also among the drivers that were showing very solid speed. Bowman and Stenhouse qualified on the front row which will undoubtedly hurt their betting odds; however bettors should also realize that those qualifying results were not the result of a fluke lap; but rather speed shown since unloading this weekend.

Behind a few of the aforementioned drivers above, I also noticed that John Hunter Nemechek, Denny Hamlin, and Noah Gragson were also among the drivers that appeared to have strong speed in practice. Bowman, Logano, and Byron posted the best 25 lap averages which is noteworthy considering that long green flags at Bristol can exceed 100 laps. Meanwhile, I believe it is also worth mentioning that names like Christpher Bell, Kyle Busch, and Chase Elliott were way further down the speed charts than anyone would have expected, given each driver’s resume at Bristol. Additionally, I would call out names like Ross Chastain and Josh Berry among the drivers that were also struggling on the speed charts in practice.

Betting Targets

Based on prior track performance, current form, and weekend observations thus far, Kyle Larson is without a double the driver to beat going into Sunday. Larson is topping out at nearly every handicapping indicator and should have an opportunity to compete for his 2nd victory of the season. Behind Larson, I believe Denny Hamlin should be in the discussion. However, Hamlin is receiving odds that rival Larson for the outright betting favorite and I simply think Hamlin is overrated from an odds standpoint. Outside of the heavy favorite duo of Larson and Hamlin, Christopher Bell has produced similar performance metrics and is getting more than twice the value. As a result, I believe Bell is among the drivers that is a must-bet especially in futures (win) formats.

Behind those big names drivers, I believe we can start looking at drivers that may be less polarizing to score their first victory at Bristol. Among those names, I believe Ty Gibbs and Chase Elliott have the best likelihood to breakthrough in Thundery Valley. Both drivers have strong resumes at Bristol and showed really solid long-run speed in practice on Saturday. Meanwhile, the likes of Brad Keselowski, Noah Gragson, and Michael McDowell are drivers that appear to be poised to outrun their current betting odds which could be considered in low-risk/high-reward style prop bets!

Draftkings 2025 Food City 500 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Food City 500 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Christopher Bell +1200 (.75 unit)
Chase Elliott +1200 (.75 unit)
Ty Gibbs +1800 (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +4000 (.25 unit)
Brad Keselowski +4000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Chase Elliott +105 over William Byron (2 units)
Ryan Preece -130 over Ross Chastain (2 units)
Ty Gibbs +250 wins Group 2 (Busch, Logano, Reddick)(1 unit)
Michael McDowell +350 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Christopher Bell +450 wins Group A (Larson, Hamlin, Blaney)(1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kyle Larson +285 wins Food City 500
Chris Buescher +125 finishes Top 10
Risking 1 unit to win: +760