2025 Pennzoil 400 Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday March 16th, 2025. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: FOX

So far this weekend, Las Vegas Motor Speedway has delivered excellent racing among NASCAR’s premier touring series. On Sunday, the Cup Series will have their opportunity to take center stage in Sin City with the running of the Pennzoil 400. The major storyline going into Sunday’s main event surrounds the #20 team and driver Christopher Bell who has a chance to make history yet again. Last week, Bell became just the 18th driver in NASCAR history to win 3 races in a row. If Bell is able to get back to victory lane again, he would join a small elite list of drivers that have won 4 races in a row which includes the likes of Cale Yarborough, Darrell Waltrip, Dale Earnhardt, Harry Gant, Bill Elliott, Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon, and Jimmie Johnson!

While Bell’s quest for a 4th straight victory will be exciting from a fan perspective, we must shift our focus towards a betting perspective. The unique circumstance surrounding Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 is that this will be the first race of the season, for the Cup Series, on a 1.5 mile speedway. Typically, I like to handicap the intermediate speedway by looking at in-season performance trends because those trends transition very well to the other 1.5 mile venues. However since this is the first race of the season at an intermediate layout, we have to be somewhat cautious because we simply do not know the drivers/teams that may have found or lost speed over the offseason. We will have to be cautious until we allow for some of those trends to unfold as we progress throughout the season.

Despite the lack of in-season performance trends, I do believe bettors can put some weight into performance history at Las Vegas. Las Vegas Motor Speedway is one of those 1.5 mile speedways where the Cup Series is nearly full throttle the entire lap. As a result, drivers have to keep their foot on the throttle throughout the corner and must drive the car on the edge without having to lift. This edgy style of driving favors some of the best wheelmen in the sport and that is why we see names like Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, and Kyle Larson routinely run at the front of the field. For those reasons, we can trust driver performance history at Las Vegas as a solid handicapping baseline but then we must identify the drivers that are poised to potentially best their historical averages as well!

Las Vegas – Cup Series Trends and Notes

• Joey Logano leads all active drivers with 4 career wins at Las Vegas.
• Brad Keselowski (3), Kyle Larson (3), Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, and Alex Bowman are also former winners at Las Vegas.
• Kyle Larson has won 2 of the last 3 races at Las Vegas.
• Joey Logano has won 2 of the last 6 races at Las Vegas.
• Hendrick Motorsports drivers have won 4 of the last 6 races at Las Vegas.
• Kyle Busch has finished 4th or better in 5 of the last 8 races at Las Vegas.
• Ross Chastain has finished in the top 5 in 4 of the last 6 races at Las Vegas.
• Christopher Bell has finished in the runner-up position in 2 of the last 3 races at Las Vegas.
• In the Next Gen Car, Kyle Larson (112.9), William Byron (110.1), and Ross Chastain (108.) are the only drivers with 100+ average driver ratings in the last 6 races at Las Vegas.
• Chase Briscoe has finished in the top 20 just once in the last 6 races at Las Vegas.
• Ty Gibbs has just one top 20 finish in 5 career starts at Las Vegas.
• Chevrolet teams have won 6 of the last 9 races at Las Vegas.
• The eventual race winner has started from the 2nd place starting position in 3 of the last 4 races.

Dynamic Averages

As I stated above, we must be conservative with our expectations this week because we simply don’t know what may have changed over the off-season when it comes to speed at the 1.5 mile tracks. With that being said, I still believe bettors need to review our dynamic averages which displays performance trends over the last 5 races at 1.5 mile venues. These performance trends still have credibility until we see trend reversals. Therefore, this is still a useful handicapping tool that must be reviewed as we approach tomorrow’s race. We just have to concede the fact that these trends are likely to change, somewhat, as we move forward with the 2025 campaign.

Practice Observations

Saturday’s practice sessions were split into two groups. In the opening session, Bubba Wallace posted the fastest lap with a speed of 186.290mph. Wallace posted his fastest lap over the likes of Noah Gragson, Michael McDowell, and Carson Hocevar. The Spire Motorsports duo of McDowell and Hocevar were the surprise story. Spire Motorsports has continued to show improved speed and spoiler alert; they earned their first pole in NASCAR history in qualifying with Michael McDowell. However, we know that single lap speed is not going to bring us any profits. In race conditions, it appeared that Bubba Wallace had the best race speed though Hocevar also looked pretty solid.

The 2nd practice group was loaded with all of the big name drivers and the 2nd group posted 8 of the top 11 best single lap speeds. Ross Chastain posted the fastest lap of all drivers with a speed of 187.846mph. William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Austin Dillon were among others that also were in the top 5 in terms of single lap speed. In terms of consecutive lap averages, Chastain, Byron, Reddick, Bowman, and Larson were all within very close proximity of each other among the group of drivers that were displaying “winning” speed. I thought there was a pretty big drop off behind those cars. Additionally, I would point out the fact that Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin were among the big names that did not show a ton of speed in race conditions. Ryan Blaney also blew a tire and will have to start at the rear on Sunday following repairs.

Betting Targets

Kyle Larson, William Byron, and Joey Logano have been the best drivers in the Next Gen Car at Las Vegas and I don’t think that trend will change this weekend. I was not impressed with Logano’s car in practice but his overall resume at Las Vegas is undeniable. Luckily, I already have some exposure to Larson from our Truck Series parlay on Friday and I may limit too much additional exposure. However, Larson would be my top pick if I had to choose an outright favorite. In terms of betting odds, Logano likely has the best betting value among the group. At near 10-1 odds, Logano has to be in-play based on history at Las Vegas which also includes a victory in the fall race last October.

Outside of the top names described above, I’m sure Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and Ryan Blaney deserve respectful consideration as well. However, I am looking even deeper in the field at potential dark horses that could steal a win on Sunday. Among the many dark horses, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, and Bubba Wallace are the drivers that are standing out. Luckily, we took Chastain and Bowman at opening odds which yielded tremendous value compared to their current betting odds. Meanwhile, Wallace is currently getting 30-1 odds following his poor qualifying effort. I think Wallace has shown speed this weekend and has also shown great trends at the 1.5 mile speedways. For that reason, I have the #23 listed as a dark horse but I would prefer to target Wallace in H2H formats specifically.

Note: For deep fantasy and prop bet targets, Justin Haley and Riley Herbst have promising upside from the rear of the field in fantasy formats. Both drivers are considered bottom-tier drivers from an odds perspective but have much higher upside than current odds suggests.

Draftkings Pennzoil 400 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 Pennzoil 400 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

William Byron +800 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +900 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +2500 (.5 unit) *early pick
Alex Bowman +2500 (.5 unit) *early pick

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Alex Bowman -110 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
Christopher Bell -135 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Chris Buescher -130 over Austin Cindric (2 units)
Justin Haley +700 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)