2025 GOVX 200 Race Picks

By Jay Horne
Updated: March 7, 2025

2025 GOVX 200 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday March 8th, 2025. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: CW

NASCAR’s top two touring series will return to the sport’s championship venue this weekend at Phoenix Raceway. The Xfinity Series will kick off the action on Saturday with the running of the GOVX 200. For bettors, Saturday’s return to Phoenix will be the first race of the season on a traditional oval given the prior 3 races were a combination of superspeedways and road courses. As a result, tomorrow’s return to Phoenix could help us identify the drivers and teams that will be most dangerous as the season progresses at the traditional oval venues that occupy the larger portion of the schedule.

For Saturday’s GOVX 200, Justin Allgaier will enter the weekend as the outright betting favorite thanks to his championship clinching runner-up finish last fall. Along with Allgaier, Aric Almirola (Joe Gibbs Racing #19) and Alex Bowman (Hendrick Motorsports #17) are also listed as near outright betting favorites. Both talented Cup Series veterans are making part-time starts this weekend in strong equipment which puts the trio of Allgaier, Almirola, and Bowman into the heavy favorite group. However looking through this field, I could make the argument for about 10-12 different names going to victory lane given the right circumstances. Current betting odds seem to agree with that concept because there are 10 drivers listed at 15-1 odds or less.

For those reasons, I believe bettors can be optimistic that we have an opportunity to see a winner in victory lane on Saturday that is not an outright betting favorite. Through the first 3 races of the season in the Xfinity Series, the outright betting favorite has won twice and the 2nd highest betting favorite won the other race. In fact, that trend has been on-going in the Xfinity Series for some time with mostly outright favorites winning at a very high percentage. However, I do believe bettors can expect for that trend to change given the sheer number of highly talented drivers in the Xfinity Series which is going to produce some week to week surprise stories. From the betting side of the equation, we just have to do our best to identify these weekly breakout stars because they could be the difference in profit vs. losses starting Saturday at Phoenix!

Handicapping and Betting Strategy

Typically, Phoenix is one of those tracks where you have to consider everything into the handicapping equation. I would say a driver’s track history at Phoenix is very important because this style of track lends to specific driving talents. Therefore drivers that perform well at Phoenix, seem to correlate performance trends to other tracks like Richmond, Iowa, and others. As a result, we can look at these trends to form some baseline expectations. With that being said, I also believe bettors will want to observe practice speeds on Saturday which could be a big handicapping component this weekend. Phoenix is one of those tracks where you need a good setup. If drivers have nailed the setups or missed the setups, that should start becoming evident during Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions.

From a betting odds perspective, I simply think there is a bigger possibility that the odds get better on the likes of Allgaier, Almirola, and Bowman than the odds that those drivers lose betting value. However, I don’t believe bettors should wait until after practices to initiate any betting action. I do believe there are drivers that have enough current value to warrant early betting consideration. Since this field is loaded with talent and ripe to produce a somewhat surprise winner, I believe bettors can build a slightly diverse betting card that favors betting value especially in futures formats. With that being said, I believe the best sharp value will be in the form of H2H match-ups.

Phoenix – Xfinity Series Notes

Justin Allgaier (2), Brandon Jones, and Sammy Smith are the only former Phoenix winners in the field for the GOVX 200.
Alex Bowman has just two top 10 finishes in 19 career Cup Series starts at Phoenix. *Seems to suggest he is extremely overvalued based on current betting odds.*
Jess Love has finished 2nd and 6th in two career starts at Phoenix.
Sheldon Creed has finished 7th or better in his last 5 starts at Phoenix, including top 3 finishes in 3 of the last 4 starts.
Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have won 3 of the last 5 races at Phoenix.
Justin Allgaier has finished in the top 5 at Phoenix in 11 of his last 20 starts.
Joe Gibbs Racing cars finished 1,2,3 at Richmond last season. *Comparable venue*
Aric Almirola failed to lead a lap in either start at Phoenix in 2024 for Joe Gibbs Racing.
Sam Mayer has just one top 10 finish in 7 career starts at Phoenix.
The eventual race winner has started from the top 5 starting positions in 40 of 48 (83%) races at Phoenix!

Betting Targets

While I will be waiting until practice to decide if any of the outright favorites deserve their current betting odds, I do believe Justin Allgaier is a justified favorite based on his driving style and impressive history at Phoenix. If you wanted to grab an early favorite, Allgaier deserves the most exposure. Outside of Allgaier, the other drivers that warrant early betting consideration include the likes of Sheldon Creed and Taylor Gray. I believe both of these drivers have sharp betting value. Creed has a pretty high ceiling this week at a track where he has routinely shown strong speed. Meanwhile, Gray has impressed me throughout the early part of the season and finished 3rd at Richmond (comparable track) last year in his first Xfinity Series debut. While Gray is the option that I would prefer in H2H formats, he can also be considered a live dark horse for the outright win as well.

Another driver that should be on everyone’s target list includes rookie Carson Kvapil. Personally, I believe Kvapil may be the most underrated talent in the Xfinity Series. More importantly, Kvapil has shown his best racing at the shorter tracks which includes top 5 finishes in all 3 of his starts in 2024 at venues of 1 mile or less in length. Lastly, I would throw out names like Christian Eckes and William Sawalich who may be lottery ticket names that could provide value in low-risk/high-reward prop bets. I believe both drivers have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest. On the flip side of the betting targets, Alex Bowman and Sam Mayer are drivers currently on my “fade” list that I consider overvalued based on current betting odds.

Draftkings GOVX 200 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 GOVX 200 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Sheldon Creed +1000

Carson Kvapil +1400

Taylor Gray +1500

H2H Match-Ups and Props

*Bovada*

Two Team Parlay

+910

NASCAR Betting

2025 GOVX 200 Race Picks