2025 EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Race Picks

By Jay Horne
Updated: March 1, 2025

2025 EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Race Picks

Date/Time: Sunday March 2nd, 2025. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Circuit of the Americas (COTA)
TV: FOX

NASCAR’s Cup Series will make their annual stop in Austin, Texas on Sunday for the running of the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas (COTA). After two straight weeks of unpredictable superspeedway racing, bettors can find solace that we have returned to handicapping friendly venues. However, the Cup Series has been anything but predictable at COTA since the series first debuted here back in 2021. More importantly, this season’s Cup Series field is absolutely stacked with superior road course talents including Shane Van Gisbergen, AJ Allmendinger, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, and others. Therefore, this race may be somewhat difficult to handicap yet again!

Along with the full-time Cup Series talents, we must also mention that Connor Zilisch will make his Cup Series debut on Sunday as well. Admittedly, I rarely mention debuts at the Cup Series level because it rarely is worthy of betting consideration. However, Zilisch is the type of talent that can win in his debut similar to SVG’s accomplishment at Chicago two years ago. The rookie phenom won his Xfinity Series debut at Watkins Glen last season and also won Saturday’s Xfinity Series race at COTA while overcoming self-inflicted penalties. Simply put, Zilisch’s road course skills are extraordinary and he will be another driver that is worthy of betting consideration for the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix.

Earlier today, Tyler Reddick earned his first pole of the season with a fast lap of 88.095mph. Reddick is a former winner (2023) at COTA and the pole is also his 2nd at COTA in just 5 starts. Behind Reddick, teammate Bubba Wallace had a very surprising 2nd place qualifying effort which gave the 23XI Racing duo the front row for the start of Sunday’s main event. Behind the teammates, Chase Elliott, Carson Hocevar, and Daniel Suarez rounded out the top 5 positions. However, SVG, Larson, and Ross Chastain were among the expected favorites that were also close behind and will start towards the front of the field on Sunday. Most importantly, Saturday’s on-track activities did not produce any type of overwhelming favorite which leaves the door open for some speculation towards how things will unfold between the green and checkered flag on Sunday.

Betting Strategy

Current betting odds are somewhat conservative because there are so many prestigious road course talents that are within striking distance and there is not a clear outright favorite. For that reason, it feels like betting odds are just really conservative to reduce value from the heavy favorites. Luckily, I was not expecting any significant betting value in futures formats this week. Road course venues rarely produce significant betting value from the drivers capable of winning. As a result, I will be personally looking to target drivers in H2H formats and perhaps prop bet formats to extract the sharp value from current betting lines. I believe allocating the majority of our risk towards these types of bets will be our most reliable path towards producing profits!

COTA – Betting Notes

Before I outline a few betting notes below, let’s first highlight the fact that this year’s COTA layout will be different from the prior 4 races at COTA. The first four races unfolded on COTA’s full 3.410 mile/20-turn layout. However, NASCAR elected to use the condensed 2.40 mile layout which eliminates a significant portion of the track that was formerly from turns 7-11. Fans will likely notice that the front-stretch will be much shorter on the condensed layout. From a handicapping perspective, I don’t think the shorter layout changes much but it does likely reduce the risk of this race being decided by fuel strategy if nothing else.

Chase Elliott (2021), Ross Chastain (2022), Tyler Reddick (2023), and William Byron (2024) are the only former winners at COTA in Cup Series competition.
Tyler Reddick (123.5), Ross Chastain (119.8), William Byron (119.7), and Alex Bowman (108.8) are the only drivers to produce +100 average driver ratings through the last 3 races at COTA in the Next Gen Car.
Tyler Reddick has finished inside the top 5 in each of the last 3 starts at COTA in the Next Gen Car.
Outside of Reddick, Ross Chastain and Alex Bowman are the only other drivers that have finished inside the top 10 in all 4 races at COTA.
Chris Buescher and Kyle Busch have both finished in the top 10 in the last two races at COTA.
Daniel Suarez’s best finish at COTA is 24th in 4 career starts.
Bubba Wallace has a 32.3 average finishing position through 4 career starts at COTA.
Chevrolet drivers have won 3 of the 4 races at COTA.
There have been at least 11 lead changes through all 4 races at COTA.

Practice Observations

In a refreshing format, NASCAR’s Cup Series participated in two separate practice sessions on Saturday in preparation for Sunday’s main event. In the first practice on Saturday morning, SVG produced the top speed at 87.401mph. SVG was the only driver in the sub-99 second bracket while Alex Bowman and Connor Zilisch were the only other drivers in the low 99 second bracket. Kyle Larson, AJ Allmendinger, Daniel Suarez were among other drivers that were in close proximity in terms of fast times. In the late session, SVG once again posted the fastest time though there were some different names towards the top of the charts which included Carson Hocevar, William Byron, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott.

Unfortunately, the 45 minute practice sessions did not offer enough time for drivers to string together long-runs which are most closely related to race conditions. In the final practice session, Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Alex Bowman were among the names that posted the best 5 and 10 lap averages. Meanwhile, Ryan Blaney and Daniel Suarez were among the names that were also much higher on the average lap charts than most would have expected. However, it is still relatively tough to extract a clear picture from practice because there were several drivers like SVG, William Byron, and others who did not even run 5 consecutive laps, with more drivers failing to run 10 consecutive laps. With that being said, SVG, Reddick, Chastain, Elliott, and Larson appeared to be the class of the field which unironically aligns with our dynamic averages at the road courses.

Betting Targets

When you combine practice observations along with our dynamic averages and other handicapping angles, I believe Tyler Reddick is the rightful favorite going into Sunday. Reddick has been nothing short of impressive throughout his career at COTA and the 23XI Racing cars have clearly shown speed throughout the weekend. However, SVG, Larson, and Chastain appear to be legitimate threats for the race win. The problem with trying to narrow down a group of favorites is the fact that legitimately 10-12 drivers were within a few tenths of each other on the 10 lap average charts. The shorter COTA layout seems to have brought the competition closer together in lap times and that means track position/strategy towards the stage breaks could be the difference in getting a driver in position for victory.

If we are looking at current betting odds, Ross Chastain and Alex Bowman appear to have the most value in all formats. Chastain has a strong COTA resume and has been in the top 5 in nearly every category throughout the weekend and is receiving 15-1 odds. Meanwhile, Alex Bowman is another driver that has a strong COTA resume and has also been in the top 5 in nearly every speed metric throughout the weekend. The difference is that Bowman is getting monstrous 25-1 odds. With that being said, I realize both Chastain and Bowman are drivers that are likely outside of the top 5 in drivers that I would handicap going into Sunday, however both drivers fall into the category of guys that could win given the right circumstances. In H2H and prop bet formats, I believe bettors can be even more aggressive towards both Chastain and Bowman.

There are more drivers in the intermediate range of suspects that bettors could use as pivots as well. Daniel Suarez has shown excellent speed this weekend and appears poised for his best COTA weekend to date. Kyle Busch is an underrated COTA talent that has also shown solid speed throughout the weekend. Both drivers could offer appeal in H2H formats given the right match-up. Meanwhile, I would list drivers like Ty Gibbs and Chris Buescher as even bigger dark horses that could produce high-yield value in prop bet formats that warrants the betting risk. Despite a string of bad finishes going back to last year, Gibbs is still a strong road course talent and has failed to finish worse than 9th in his prior two career starts at COTA. Lastly, I would throw out names like Ryan Blaney and Austin Cindric as pure fantasy options along with other names I have listed above that can be seeked for purely fantasy purposes based on their poor starting positions.

Draftkings EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2025 EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Kyle Larson +750

Chase Elliott +900

Ross Chastain +1400

Alex Bowman +2500

H2H Match-Ups and Props

*Bovada*

Two Team Parlay

+805

NASCAR Betting

2025 EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Race Picks