2025 United Rentals 300 Race Picks

Date/Time: Saturday February 15th, 2025. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Daytona International Speedway
TV: CW

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will return to action for the first series event of the season at Daytona International Speedway with the running of the United Rentals 300. Last year, the Xfinity Series consistently put on the best racing performances throughout the year and we should expect another similar storyline this season especially considering the wealth of talent that the series continues to produce. From a betting perspective, Daytona typically yields the unexpected but the opportunity for a big payday hangs in the balance!

The biggest difference going into the 2025 campaign surrounds the numerous driver/team changes which commonly occur each year in the lower touring series. The biggest changes to highlight this season includes Harrison Burton who will move from the Cup Series to the Xfinity Series full-time in the #25 car with AM Racing, Christian Eckes took a step up from the Truck Series and will drive the #16 full-time this year with Kaulig Racing, rookie phenom Connor Zilisch will race full-time in the #88 for JR Motorsports, Taylor Gray jumps up from the Truck Series into a promising ride with the #54 at Joe Gibbs Racing, and Carson Kvapil will also move to a full-time role with JR Motorsports.

When you combine these full-time changes along with several other team/driver changes and returning talent, the Xfinity Series is truly stacked with talent this year which is why we should expect very good racing throughout the season. While the competition is undoubtedly rich from top to bottom, the other thing that really stands out is that the series no longer has a huge week to week favorite. Justin Allgaier, SVG (Road Courses), and Cole Custer were among those big week to week favorites last year. However, Allgaier is the only driver returning to full-time action and there is likely to be a wide array of different challengers each week which should keep fans and bettors on the edge of their seat.

Betting Strategy – Important Note

With so many new drivers and new faces in the series, this Xfinity Series may be more difficult to predict this season at least for the first few weeks. More importantly, tomorrow’s United Rentals 300 at Daytona International Speedway is already a wildcard superspeedway race that can be won by nearly anyone. For those reasons, I believe bettors must be very conservative through the first several weeks of Xfinity Series competition and limit our overall risk until we have a higher confidence level in the drivers that are in the situations to bring home profits!

Unfortunately, the Xfinity Series has not produced a lot of positives for bettors in recent years. The main reason for that trend is that Austin Hill has won consistently as the outright betting favorite. Outright favorites rarely win at the superspeedways but Hill has been the exception to the rule. Additionally, the Xfinity Series simply has not produced many surprise or big odds style winners over the last couple of seasons. While I would argue that trend is bound to come to an end, I just don’t think bettors can get carried away with overall risks since the latest winners have produced the least ROI. Therefore, minimizing overall risk should be at the forefront of our betting strategy for Saturday.

Xfinity Series Superspeedway Notes

While we may not know the week to week overall favorites in the Xfinity Series this season, rest assured that Austin Hill remains the top dog in the series on the superspeedways. Over the prior 3 seasons, Hill has racked up 7 superspeedway wins including the last 3 season openers at Daytona which is already a series record. Hill is knocking on the door to be considered the best superspeedway talent in series history and the Richard Childress Racing cars of Hill and teammate Jesse Love captured 4 of 6 victories at the superspeedway venues in 2024 with Hill capturing 3 of those checkered flags. Needless to say, Hill remains the best in the series at this style of racing.

Outside of Austin Hill, the likes of Jesse Love, Sheldon Creed, and Sammy Smith were among the best superspeedway performers during the 2024 season statistically. Love captured the previously mentioned win at Talladega and Sammy Smith won the fall race at Talladega following several quality superspeedway performances. Meanwhile, Creed never got to victory lane in 2024 but he was consistently putting his car in winning positions at the superspeedways. From a betting standpoint, all we can ask for is to be in position for a chance at winning in the final laps and hope for some luck to fall our way. With that being said, identifying some of the drivers that have continued to put themselves in a winning position can go a long way towards solving the superspeedway enigma.

Betting Targets

For what it is worth, the Xfinity Series did practice on Friday and rookie Taylor Gray paced the field with the fastest lap at 186.004mph. Gray is driving the #54 car for Joe Gibbs Racing and honestly all of the JGR cars appeared strong in Friday’s practice. With that being said, I don’t put much stock into practice speeds at the superspeedways because it really does not have any correlation towards finishing positions. Instead, I will base my primary betting targets on those trends mentioned above around drivers that have consistently put themselves into a winning position.

Once we identify drivers that have consistently performed well at superspeedways, then we simply have to determine those drivers that have enough betting value to warrant wagering action. The drivers that fit that criteria are undoubtedly among the likes of Sheldon Creed, Ryan Truex, Christian Eckes, and Sammy Smith. Those 4 drivers appear to have the most value based on current betting odds. Jesse Love and Justin Allgaier are reasonable targets but appear to be at even value. Meanwhile, drivers like Carson Kvapil, Dean Thompson, and Justin Bonsignore appear to have dark horse and prob bet value as breakthrough long shot options!

2025 United Rentals 300 Betting Picks

*More picks may be added closer to race time. Continue to check back until “FINAL” status is displayed*

Sheldon Creed +1200 (.75 unit)
Christian Eckes +2200 (.5 unit)
Carson Kvapil +2500 (.5 units)
Sammy Smith +2500 (.5 unit)
Sam Mayer +2500 (.5 unit)
Taylor Gray +2500 (.5 unit)
Dean Thompson +3500 (.25 unit)
Justin Bonsignore +4000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Jesse Love -130 over Connor Zilisch (2 units)
Matt DiBenedetto +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)