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2024 Championship 150 Race Picks

2024 Championship 150 Race Picks

NASCAR Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday November 8th, 2024. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: FS1

The 2024 NASCAR season will culminate in the Valley of the Sun this weekend at Phoenix Raceway. Over the weekend, NASCAR will have the luxury of crowning 3 different champions in the Craftsman Truck Series, Xfinity Series, and Cup Series. After a full season grind, it comes down to just one race for the final four drivers that are competing for a championship in each series. The action kicks off late Friday with the running of the Championship 150 which will highlight the Truck Series Championship battle which will be decided among Corey Heim, Christian Eckes, Ty Majeski, and Grant Enfinger!

Unlike the Xfinity and Cup Series which competed at Phoenix back in the spring, this weekend’s championship finale in the Truck Series marks the only race this season at Phoenix Raceway. In some ways, that makes handicapping slightly more difficult because we simply have less data to analyze. Additionally, the Truck Series has not even competed at a venue that I would consider similar to Phoenix since the race at Richmond back in August. During that time, Ty Majeski had caught fire with back to back victories at IRP and Richmond. I think bettors could argue that Majeski has been the best overall driver at the short tracks this season. However, I think the margin between the championship contenders, in the Truck Series, is razor thin which will make things difficult from an expectations perspective.

Typically, bettors lose some of the interest towards the end of the season because these final races are heavily favored by the championship contenders who are putting every ounce of development, technology, and efforts into their programs for this final race of the season. In the early years of this championship format, these races were always won by the championship contenders but that trend has slowly faded. In the Truck Series, the championship contenders have failed to win 2 of the last 3 races which is a similar trend that we have seen in the Cup Series. As a result, I think bettors have to keep an open mind and continue to consider the non-championship contenders who are getting overshadowed in this championship drama. Our focus for Friday and throughout the weekend will be to identify drivers that have the opportunity to steal the spotlight and produce the best ROI as we make a final attempt to produce profitable betting cards!

Phoenix – Betting Notes

  • Stewart Friesen (2019) and Christian Eckes (2023) are the only former winners at Phoenix Raceway.
  • In last year’s season finale at Phoenix, this year’s championship contenders Christian Eckes (118.7), Ty Majeski (116.6), and Corey Heim (108.9) all had +100 average driver ratings.
  • Ben Rhodes has finished in the Top 5 in 4 of the last 5 races at Phoenix.
  • Grant Enfinger has finished 6th or better in 4 of the last 6 races at Phoenix.
  • Kaden Honeycutt has finished in the Top 10 in both career starts at Phoenix.
  • Over the last 3 short track races, Christian Eckes (136.6), Ty Majeski (122.6), Grant Enfinger (114.2), and Layne Riggs (104.3) are the only drivers to produce a +100 average driver rating.
  • Layne Riggs has finished 6th or better in the last 4 short-track races.
  • Taylor Gray has finished in the Top 5 in 2 of the last 3 short track races.
  • Last year, Chase Purdy (finished 3rd last week at Martinsville) finished 3rd in his only start at Phoenix.
  • There have been 7 cautions or less in 9 of the last 11 races at Phoenix.
  • The eventual race winner has started from the pole in 2 of the last 3 races at Phoenix.

Handicapping and Betting Strategy

In the betting notes above, I attempted to identify stats and trends that are from recent performances at Phoenix and recent performances at the short-tracks. I think both of those handicapping angles are collectively are best handicapping formula this week. Obviously, there are drivers that shine on the short tracks but we also don’t want to overlook drivers that have also performed well in the prior Phoenix appearances. For those reasons, I think we can identify some of the lower-tier drivers that may be worthy of early betting consideration especially in H2H and prop bet formats.

Also, our handicapping notes above reflect heavily that the 4 championship drivers are also the best short track talents. As a result, more of our focus may shift towards H2H and prop bet formats which have more value than current futures (win) odds. In terms of determining the outright winner and potential series champion, I would say the margin is so razor thin that we may want to wait on practice observations before making any selections. Typically, I think that practice times are often overrated when handicapping races. However, I think the margin is so close among these Truck Series contenders, from our main handicapping angles, that we may just need to wait to see if practice and qualifying sessions could be the handicapping angle that solidifies our lineups!.

Practice Speeds

This weekend’s on-track schedule is slightly weird because Truck Series teams practice earlier this evening but qualifying will not take place until Friday closer to race time. However as I stated before, I think practice speeds can be given some credit this weekend especially amongst the favorites. After Thursday’s practice, Heim emerged as the potential driver to beat which is what I was expecting. Heim laid down a fast lap of 136.960mph which was the fastest in Thursday’s session. Grant Enfinger, Ty Majeski, Taylor Gray, Connor Mossack, and Christian Eckes were all among the top 6 in fastest lap times.

While single lap speeds are not as ideal as long-run speed, I would also add that Heim led all drivers with the fastest 5 and 10 lap consecutive averages as well. Heim clearly showed the best speed throughout the session however Christian Eckes was not far behind. Eckes was a close 2nd to Heim on the speed charts while Ty Majeski and Grant Enfinger were not much further behind. Behind the championship contenders, I thought Stewart Friesen was the biggest surprise. Friesen has struggled in significant ways in recent weeks and there are rumors the team may shutdown at the end of the season. Despite those facts, Friesen has consistently shown speed at Phoenix and has shown excellent speed so far this weekend. Further on back, Nick Sanchez and Connor Mosack were among names that appeared to show solid speed as well!

Betting Targets

For now, I am being very conservative towards my confidence level in the guy most likely to emerge from Friday’s season finale at Phoenix as the Truck Series Championship. The data and analytics tell us that the duo of Christian Eckes and Ty Majeski have far outperformed the rest of the outright competitors. However, I cannot rule out Corey Heim as the outright favorite. Heim has been the best overall talent this season, showed the best speed in practice, and arguably had the fastest truck in last year’s race at Phoenix before being wrecked by Carson Hocevar. As a result, I believe Heim is the sharp pick for the outright betting favorite with Eckes worthy of the #2 outright position over the likes of Majeski and Enfinger.

Based on current betting odds, there is minimal value towards the championship contenders as we may have expected. Heim and Eckes are likely worthy of being thrown into parlays to potentially create value. However, I would look outside of the championship contenders to find true betting value in the likes of Layne Riggs and Ben Rhodes. Rhodes has finished in the top 5 at Phoenix in 4 of the last 5 races. Meanwhile, Riggs has been one of the best drivers in the series, on the short-tracks, during the 2nd half of the year. Personally, I like both drivers in H2H formats but both also deserve consideration in futures (win) formats as well. Meanwhile, I would also throw out names like Kaden Honeycutt and Stewart Friesen as drivers poised to shatter current projections. Both Honeycutt and Friesen are listed at 50-1 odds but have much higher ceilings than those odds would suggest. As a result, I like both drivers in H2H and prop bet formats.

2024 Championship 150 Optimal Lineup

***TBD after qualifying***

2024 Championship 150 Betting Picks

*More plays may be added. Please check back until “FINAL” status is displayed.*

Corey Heim +150 (2.5 units)
Grant Enfinger +700 (.75 unit)
Ben Rhodes +2200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Kaden Honeycutt +600 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Christian Eckes +285 wins Championship 150
Christopher Bell +450 wins Cup Series Championship Race
Risking .5 unit to win: +1010