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2024 Xfinity 500 Race Picks

2024 Xfinity 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday November 3rd, 2024. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Martinsville Speedway
TV: NBC

Last week, Tyler Reddick delivered one of the most clutch moments in recent history by passing two cars on the final lap to win at Homestead and punch his ticket to the championship finale at Phoenix. Reddick joined Joey Logano as the two drivers that have secured their championship tickets which means two spots will be up for grabs when the round of 8 concludes on Sunday at Martinsville Speedway for the running of the Xfinity 500. As things currently stand, Christopher Bell and William Byron are the two drivers above the cutoff line. However, there are numerous drivers, both playoff and non-playoff drivers, that could steal a victory on Sunday and shake-up the final 4 at Phoenix!

Back in the spring, William Byron earned a victory in the Cook Out 400 in the first race of the season at Martinsville Speedway. Byron has been really good at Martinsville with 2 victories in the last 5 races. In terms of this year, Byron started the season on fire by winning 3 of the first 8 races. However, Byron’s victory in the spring was the last win for the #24 team this year. The #24 team has not necessarily run poorly during the 2nd half of the season but they have not shown the elite speed that was flexed during the early part of the season. Obviously, Byron is among the drivers that desperately need an extremely strong performance to keep their championship hopes alive and it will be interesting to see if they can return the speed shown in the spring.

While Byron has been one of the best drivers at Martinsville in recent years, there are several other drivers that deserve equal respect for their resumes at Martinsville. From a betting standpoint, we have seen a similar narrative all weekend with 4-5 drivers listed as very big favorites in each NASCAR touring series. The reason for this trend is because there are a handful of drivers that consistently put themselves at the front of this half-mile paperclip and have shown the skill set to continuously put themselves in a position for a victory. For that reason, odds-makers have not allowed much value on the guys with proven Martinsville resumes and that will make things difficult from a betting perspective as we try to extract as much value as possible with our selections.

Martinsville – Cup Notes

  • Denny Hamlin has the most wins (5) among active drivers at Martinsville.
  • Martin Truex Jr (3), Kyle Busch (2), Brad Keselowski (2), William Byron (2), Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and Alex Bowman are all former winners at Martinsville.
  • Ryan Blaney (5.1) and Joey Logano (5.2) have produced Top 5 average finishing positions over the last 10 races at Martinsville which is the best among all drivers.
  • Joey Logano has finished in the Top 10 in 10 straight races at Martinsville.
  • In the 5 races at Martinsville in the Next Gen Car, Kyle Larson has one victory and two runner-up finishes.
  • Chase Elliott (109.7), Ryan Blaney (109.0), Kyle Larson (105.5), and Ryan Blaney (104.5) are the only drivers to average a 100+ driver rating over the last 7 races at Martinsville.
  • Bubba Wallace has finished 11th or better in the last 4 races at Martinsville.
  • Chase Briscoe has finished in the Top 10 in 5 straight races at Martinsville.
  • Brad Keselowski’s best finish in the Next Gen Car at Martinsville is 17th.
  • Michael McDowell’s best finish at Martinsville is 14th in 27 career starts.
  • Chevrolet drivers have won 5 of the last 8 races at Martinsville.
  • The eventual race winner has started outside the Top 10 in 4 straight races at Martinsville.
  • There have been less than 7 cautions in each of the 5 races at Martinsville in the Next Gen Car.

Handicapping Martinsville

When it comes to handicapping Martinsville, our best angle is to look at prior performances because this track is so unique and unlike any other venue on the schedule. While handicappers can look at tracks like New Hampshire, Richmond, and a few other short-tracks for comparison, the most useful information is observing the track history and how drivers have performed in the new car at this layout. To help paint a better picture of that narrative, I have compiled loop data metrics for the 5 races at Martinsville in the Next Gen Car. Bettors should use these metrics as a fundamental baseline going into Sunday’s Xfinity 500 and avoid making any betting selections that greatly contradict these metrics. Again, this is not our sole handicapping component this week but it’s definitely our primary component.

DriverAvg. RatingAvg. StartAvg. Mid RaceAvg. FinishAvg. Pos.Pass Diff.Fastest LapLaps LedTotal Laps
Kyle Larson107.56.88.46.07.4-181161842218
Ryan Blaney107.313.46.64.08.2381791502218
Denny Hamlin106.211.86.810.48.4512064612215
Chase Elliott104.78.88.010.28.2-181943862217
Chase Briscoe101.96.88.87.69.021341422218
Joey Logano99.012.49.04.410.244831092218
William Byron95.514.412.89.211.4211143002217
Christopher Bell88.315.213.615.814.421201502213
Bubba Wallace85.712.416.29.812.6505902218
Ryan Preece84.410.714.314.713.321411351314
Ross Chastain80.319.013.010.214.22339312217
Alex Bowman76.017.516.315.816.3103001714
Brad Keselowski75.711.811.820.415.6-262672023
Martin Truex Jr75.511.421.415.216.84079472213
Todd Gilliland69.915.012.818.415.6-301902213
Daniel Suarez68.617.417.023.017.8-454201987
Chris Buescher66.516.820.615.418.8-101802214
Ty Gibbs65.913.816.818.818.333301811
Tyler Reddick65.818.818.221.818.0-333401904
Austin Dillon62.122.222.021.221.4104012030
Austin Cindric61.820.619.820.620.2-22962211
Kyle Busch58.617.624.220.222.2-101802209
Erik Jones57.824.221.019.221.491302213
Michael McDowell54.021.422.821.621.8-432602213
Ricky Stenhouse Jr50.723.622.421.222.8-36102210
Noah Gragson49.524.025.025.324.09401309
Corey LaJoie49.425.823.626.824.8-401332205
Harrison Burton48.426.626.823.025.4161102209
Carson Hocevar47.228.524.524.026.0-1040910
Justin Haley39.324.628.029.428.4-34202203
Zane Smith37.528.531.032.529.5230807

Practice and Qualifying Observations

Following Saturday’s on-track activities, Martin Truex Jr emerged with the pole for Sunday’s Xfinity 500 with a fast lap of 96.190mph. The pole award is Truex’s first in his farewell tour and 3rd overall at Martinsville. Truex topped the likes of Chase Elliott, William Byron, Chase Briscoe, and Ty Gibbs among the top 5 qualifiers. Perhaps the biggest storyline of the afternoon surrounded Denny Hamlin who wrecked during final practice and had to resort to a backup car. Hamlin failed to post a qualifying effort and his championship hopes will start from the 37th position on Sunday.

While qualifying speeds are often misleading because long-run speed is critical for a place like Martinsville, I must admit that the Toyota teams appeared to show the most speed. Martin Truex Jr, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell all emerged as the elite favorites following Saturday’s practice session. Both Truex and Bell led every major consecutive lap category with Bell emerging as the best long-run driver. Those 3 Toyota drivers stood along at the top of the speed charts with notable mentions going to the likes of Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott who also appeared among the fastest cars in the field. Other drivers that appeared to be outshining the top talents included the likes of Carson Hocevar, Ryan Preece, and Ty Gibbs as additional drivers that appeared to be trending far above what current betting odds suggest. As a result, those bottom-tier talents can be considered legitimate H2H options going into Sunday’s Xfinity 500!

Betting Targets

In breaking down the favorites, I will admit that Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell are emerging as my outright overall favorites. Blaney has been among the best in the Cup Series over the last several years and was the only Ford manufacturer to display winning speed on Saturday. Meanwhile, Bell has been the fastest car for the last several weeks and will get the opportunity to show his short-track strength again this weekend. Bell also has a pretty sizable points lead which could give him the option to make more aggressive strategy calls on Sunday to get the outright victory.

Obviously, Denny Hamlin will be starting behind the 8-ball this weekend due to his wreck during practice. While I believe the Toyotas have shown the most speed, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson are also formidable options that have shown winning speed throughout the weekend and have shown positive trends from an historical analysis. For some reason, Elliott consistently is underrated at Martinsville but is among the best drivers in the Cup Series at Martinsville. For that reason, I have Elliott listed high on my H2H target list. Meanwhile, Chase Briscoe and Ryan Preece are among my top H2H targets. Both Briscoe and Preece have consistently performed better than their expectations and will enter the weekend with a great opportunity to outrun their current projections.

2024 Xfinity 500 Optimal Lineup

2024 Xfinity 500 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Chase Elliott +450 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +650 (1 unit)
Christopher Bell +1400 (.75 unit)
Chase Briscoe +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

William Byron -115 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Ryan Preece -125 over Todd Gilliland (2 units)
Austin Dillon -110 over Carson Hocevar (2 units)
Joey Logano -115 finishes Top 10 (2 units)
Chase Briscoe +600 finishes Top Ford (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace +1800 finishes Top Toyota (.5 unit)