2024 Zip Buy Now Pay Later 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Friday November 1st, 2024. 6:00PM (EST)
Where: Martinsville Speedway
TV: FS1

In the last two weeks, Grant Enfinger has emerged as the championship favorite following back to back wins at Talladega and Homestead. Enfinger has emerged as one of the championship favorites despite the fact that Corey Heim and Christian Eckes have been the top two favorites from wire to wire this season. However as things currently stand, Enfinger is the only driver that is locked into the championship finale at Phoenix. On Friday, the remaining 3 drivers, to fight for a championship, will be decided when the Craftsman Truck Series concludes the Round of 8 at Martinsville Speedway with the running of the Zip Buy Now Pay Later 200.

Back in the spring, Christian Eckes earned a victory in the Long John Silvers 200 at Martinsville Speedway. Eckes began the year strong by winning the first two Truck Series races at short-tracks from Bristol to Martinsville. However, Ty Majeksi emerged as the best short track talent during the 2nd half of the season following back to back wins at IRP and Richmond. Majeski has emerged as one of the top rated talents at the short tracks and finished runner-up to Eckes in the spring race at Martinsville. Needless to say, Eckes and Majeski will enter the weekend as deserving outright betting favorites!

From a betting perspective, Martinsville Speedway is sort of unique in the fact that the top short track talents are usually among the drivers you want to target for the outright victory. However, Martinsville has also produced some relatively surprise winners at a higher rate than some other short tracks. The reason for this narrative is because Martinsville Speedway is the smallest short track on the schedule. As everyone is aware, passing can be very difficult at Martinsville’s flat half-mile layout which means track position can be important especially late in the race. If there are any drivers that can steal track position late in Friday’s Zip Buy Now Pay Later 200, they may have the opportunity to deliver a surprise victory and perhaps earn a championship opportunity as well.

Martinsville – Truck Notes

• Grant Enfinger (2020), Corey Heim (2023), and Christian Eckes (2024) are all former winners at Martinsville.
• Before his win in the spring, Christian Eckes only had one other Top 5 finish (4th) at Martinsville in 5 career starts.
• Ty Majeski has finished 4th and 2nd in his last two Martinsville starts. *Majeski’s 117.5 driver rating is the best among Truck Series competitors over that two-race period.
• Outside of his win last year, Corey Heim has failed to lead a lap and has best finish of 10th in his other two starts at Martinsville.
• Ben Rhodes has finished 7th or better in 6 out of the last 8 races at Martinsville.
• Taylor Gray has finished 8th or better in 3 out of 4 starts at Martinsville.
• Tanner Gray has finished Top 5 in 2 of his last 4 starts at Martinsville.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 3 of the last 4 races at Martinsville.
• There have been a minimum of 11 cautions in 5 of the last 6 races at Martinsville.

Handicapping Strategy

The reason that I listed some of the trends above is because our primary handicapping angle should be prior performances at Martinsville Speedway. Martinsville is unlike any other track on the Truck Series schedule and that puts a big emphasis on track history. However, our data sample for simply analyzing prior performances at Martinsville is relatively small because most drivers only have a handful of starts. For that reason, our handicapping angles must also expand to evaluate how drivers have performed at other short-tracks this season. Tracks like North Wilkesboro and IRP are good examples of tracks that are not necessarily similar to Martinsville in terms of a layout but do require some of the same driver skill sets needed to succeed at Martinsville. As a result, we must take into account other short-track performances this week to pull together the full handicapping picture.

Betting Targets

When you take into account all of the handicapping angles described above, Christian Eckes has been the best driver this season on the short tracks despite the late-season surge from Ty Majeski. Eckes is the only driver in the field with an average running position of inside the top 5 through all short-track competition and in many of those races his average running position has been 3rd or better which is really strong. As a result, I think Eckes gets the nod as the outright favorite ahead of practice and qualifying which will take place later this afternoon. While I may wait to see practice and qualifying before making some betting selections, I believe Eckes’ current value can be considered for parlay and H2H consideration prior to today’s on-track activities. Meanwhile, I’m staying away from Corey Heim and Layne Griggs simply because they are overvalued. Heim has not been great at Martinsville and Griggs has not shown enough to warrant 4-1 betting odds anywhere.

One of the unfortunate components to the Truck Series surrounds the fact that there have not been a lot of H2H match-ups offered for most of the races this season. I bring up that fact because typically Martinsville would be a place we heavily target H2H match-ups. However if we are faced with limited options, it may be a battle of having to identify the best H2H options among the limited number of drivers that are offered in H2H formats. Based on current betting odds, Grant Enfinger and Taylor Gray appear best poised to outrun the projections. Enfinger and the #9 team have been red hot and receiving relatively generous betting odds. Enfinger is a former winner at Martinsville and has looked strong throughout the season on the short-tracks. Therefore, I could argue that Enfinger is a target in all formats this week and would limit Taylor Gray to strictly H2H formats.

If you want to look much deeper into the field, Tanner Gray and Jake Garcia are drivers that could shatter their current betting odds and may be worth consideration in prop bet formats especially if you cannot find either driver in H2H formats.

2024 Zip Buy Now Pay Later 200 Optimal Lineup

2024 Zip Buy Now Pay Later 200 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Ty Majeski +350 (1 unit)
Grant Enfinger +1200 (1 unit)
Taylor Gray +1400 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Taylor Gray -115 over William Sawalich (3 units)
Christian Eckes -125 over Layne Riggs (3 units)
Tanner Gray +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Jake Garcia +2000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Christian Eckes +320 wins Zip Buy Now Pay Later 200
Aric Almirola +330 wins National Debt Relief 250
Risking .75 unit to win: +1275