2024 Credit One Bank 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday October 26th, 2024. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Homestead-Miami Speedway
TV: CW

Last week, AJ Allmendinger delivered one of the biggest wins of the season by piloting the #16 car to victory lane at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the Ambetter Health 302. As many are aware, Allmendinger’s victories have mostly been produced on the road courses but the Dinger had been winless throughout the 2024 season. Additionally, Allmendinger has received some criticism this season due to the fact that he has failed to win on the road courses despite Shane Van Gisbergen who has captured 3 victories on the road courses. However, Allmendinger put all of the noise and concerns to rest with last week’s victory and became the first Xfinity Series driver to lock themselves into the championship finale at Phoenix in two weeks. On Saturday, the Xfinity Series returns to action for the running of the Credit One Bank 300 at Homestead-Miami Speedway to provide another opportunity for a playoff hopeful to cash their ticket to the championship round!

In last week’s race at Las Vegas, we spent a lot of time dissecting in-season performance trends at the 1.5 mile speedways. I explained that most 1.5 mile speedways are very speed dependent and performance trends in close proximity especially late in the season. While Allmendinger seemingly came out of nowhere based on his prior performances at the intermediate layouts, this week our handicapping formula will be much different despite the fact that Homestead is also another 1.5 mile speedway. As I explained in our Truck Series preview which will also take place on Saturday, Homestead has a very rugged surface that is abrasive on tires and provides minimal grip for drivers. As a result, drivers will be fighting very difficult racing conditions as they attempt to make the most speed and keep the car under control when the green flag waves on Saturday.

For these reasons, our handicapping outlook will not be as focused on in-season performance trends as it will be towards identifying the best drivers for these specific racing conditions. Typically, the low-grip venues bring out the most talented drivers with the best car control and without question this race will heavily favor the betting favorites. While that may not be ideal for bettors looking for a big win, we can still find ways to turn a profit especially in H2H formats. As a result, we will dive into the drivers that have performed well at this style of racing and also ensure that we are putting our money on the best talents as opposed to the drivers that may have the best equipment. One of my handicapping rules for these types of races is that we never target a H2H match-up where we are fading the superior talent. If we follow that rule, we will win at a much higher clip!

Practice and Qualifying Observations

On Friday, Chandler Smith emerged with the pole for Saturday’s Credit One Bank 300. Smith posted a fast lap of 163.305mph for his 3rd pole of the season. Smith and Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Shedon Creed and Aric Almirola captured the top 3 qualifying positions. Meanwhile, Cole Custer, Justin Allgaier, AJ Allmendinger, Parker Kligerman, Riley Herbst, Sam Mayer, and Sammy Smith rounded out the top 10 qualifying positions. With that being said, single-lap qualifying times should not warrant any real betting consideration. Lap times will fall off by 1.5-2 seconds after about 20-25 laps meaning long-run speed will be much more important than qualifying results or single lap times.

Prior to qualifying, Xfinity Series teams participated in practice which gave us our first glimpse of potential long-run speed that we should be targeting. In practice, the Stewart-Haas Racing duo of Cole Custer and Riley Herbst emerged as some of the fastest drivers on the speed charts. Herbst was slightly the fastest of the duo but both drivers were really solid in outright speed and consistency. Behind those guys, Connor Zilisch and Chandler Smith posted some really fast lap times however neither driver compiled many consecutive laps for whatever reason. Aric Almirola, Sheldon Creed, and Justin Allgaier all appeared to be very solid on the stopwatch as well. Additional drivers that appeared to be showing speed for the 2nd consecutive week included Ryan Sieg and Brandon Jones.

Betting Targets

There are a lot of big names starting at the front of the field on Saturday and as I alluded to earlier; this type of racing is very biased to the big names/most talented drivers which are usually the betting favorites. For Saturday’s return to Homestead, I would rather have Cole Custer on my betting card than any other big name. As I mentioned in the practice observations, the Stewart-Haas Racing cars were really fast. More importantly, Custer has been really good at Homestead throughout his career which includes a victory and two runner-up finishes in 5 career starts. Chandler Smith, Riley Herbst, and Justin Allgaier are all in close proximity in terms of expected results but I would urge bettors to back the #00 as the best option among the favorites.

Behind the favorites, we don’t have as many dark horses to consider even though it feels like someone unexpected emerges every week in the Xfinity Series. If there is a surprise story or first-time winner on Saturday, Sheldon Creed has to be considered the candidate that is bound to break through for a victory. The JGR cars have some really strong speed this week though I think there may be some long-run concerns. If those cars can hit the long-run equation, Creed has an excellent opportunity and is worthy of betting consideration in all formats. Aric Almirola, Creed, and Cole Custer are the drivers that I will be targeting in H2H formats. I add Almirola to that list because I feel like he is an underrated talent and thrives at long-run style races. Deeper into the field, Ryan Sieg is once again very much in play following another prop bet win last week at Vegas. Sieg and Connor Zilisch are guys that did not have the best qualifying efforts but should move forward once the green flag waves.

2024 Credit One Bank 300 Optimal Lineup

2024 Credit One Bank 300 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Sheldon Creed +800 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1000 (.75 unit)
Sam Mayer +1400 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Cole Custer -135 over Aric Almirola (3 units)
Justin Allgaier -110 over AJ Allmendinger (3 units)

Two Team Parlay

Cole Custer +300 wins Credit One Bank 300
Kyle Larson +330 wins Straight Talk Wireless 400
Risking .75 units to win: +1215