2024 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday October 13th, 2024. 2:00PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL
TV: USA

After a wild race at Talladega that shook up the playoff standings, NASCAR’s Cup Series playoffs will continue on Sunday with a pivotal stop at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL course that will conclude the Round of 12 and eliminate 4 drivers from the championship picture. As things currently stand, Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano are among the big names that are in jeopardy of being eliminated if they fail to gain points on the field. While we will keep one eye on the playoff picture, it’s time to turn our attention to finding the best betting opportunities for Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400!

The ROVAL will mark the 5th and final road course style race of the season for the Cup Series which means we have plenty of data to point towards in-season performance trends at the road courses. Earlier this year, Hendrick Motorsports captured the first 3 victories of the season at the road courses with William Byron winning at Circuit of the Americas, Kyle Larson winning at Sonoma, and Alex Bowman winning at the Chicago Street Course. Last month, Chris Buescher became the most recent winner at the road courses by capturing a victory at Watkins Glen thanks to a last lap pass over Shane Van Gisbergen (SVG). Needless to say, there have not been any repeat winners at the road courses thus far this season and that means bettors must keep an open mind going into Sunday’s main event.

While SVG may have let a win get away back at Watkins Glen, he earned the pole for Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 with a fast lap of 99.246mph during qualifying on Saturday. It was the first pole in SVG’s career and he continues to prove that he is going to be a force, on the road courses, when he moves to the Cup Series full-time in 2025. While SVG will garner a lot of attention going into Sunday, the Cup Series playoff drivers may have to deal with more than one part-time threat. Last year’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 winner AJ Allmendinger also returned this weekend and posted a solid qualifying effort in the 3rd position. Therefore, two of the best road course drivers in the sport will be starting at the front of the field. Not to mention, both SVG and Allmendinger will likely have excellent opportunities to seek a victory given they can optimize race strategy due to the fact they will not be racing for stage points.

ROVAL – Road Course Notes

• Chase Elliott has the most wins (2) at the ROVAL among active drivers.
• Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and AJ Allmendinger are also former winners at the ROVAL.
• Tyler Reddick has the highest average driver rating (117.0) among all drivers at the ROVAL over the last 3 races.
• Alex Bowman has the best average finishing position (6.4) among all drivers at the ROVAL. *Bowman has never finished outside the top 10 in 5 career starts.
• Kyle Busch has finished 4th or better in each of the last 3 races at the ROVAL.
• Tyler Reddick and Chris Buescher have finished 8th or better in the last 3 races at the ROVAL.
• Ross Chastain has finished 7th or better in the 3 road course races this season. *Excludes Chicago Street Course
• Michael McDowell has an underwhelming 22.8 average finishing position through 6 career starts at the ROVAL.
• Daniel Suarez has a measly 27.0 average finishing position through 6 career starts at the ROVAL.
• Chevrolet drivers have won 4 of 6 races all-time at the ROVAL.
• The eventual winner has started from the Top 10 starting positions in 5 of 6 races at the ROVAL.
• There have been at least 7 cautions in 5 of 6 races at the ROVAL.

Dynamic Averages – Road Courses

Due to the fact that road course racing is a unique skill set, I think it is important to evaluate our dynamic averages this week which displays performance trends over the last 5 road course races. Surprisingly, Ross Chastain has produced the best average driver rating (102.4). Chastain is not necessarily a name that usually comes to mind at the road courses and he has a pretty poor record at the ROVAL. However, our dynamic averages suggest Chastain is performing much better than the historical trends would indicate. Behind Chastain, we start to see a lot of the names I mentioned in our notes above with Chris Buescher, Tyler Reddick, Shane Van Gisbergen, Ty Gibbs, Chase Elliott, and a host of other drivers who are all hovering around the 90+ average rating mark. Gibbs is one of the names that sticks out on that last because he has been putting together some really solid strong runs in recent road course events.

Beyond the names that we expect to run well, I would also bring attention to the names that have produced poor performance trends which is evident by our dynamic averages. Michael McDowell, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr, and Ryan Blaney are among some of the most prestigious names that have sub 75 average ratings. It’s worth noting that Blaney has historically performed well at the ROVAL. In fact, Blaney won the inaugural race at the ROVAL in 2018 and has a career 10.4 average finishing position through 6 career starts. Meanwhile, Truex and McDowell have produced relatively poor results throughout their history at the ROVAL which aligns with the dynamic averages and perhaps suggest that those should be drivers to avoid!

Practice Results

Cup Series teams had the rare opportunity of two practice sessions on Saturday. The ROVAL was slightly reconfigured this year mainly in the in-field portion of the course from turns 6-7 and had some additional modifications to the chicane on the front-stretch. For those reasons, Cup Series teams were allowed additional practice time in preparation for Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400. Without much surprise, AJ Allmendinger and SVG were the drivers that led both practices. Allmendinger posted the fastest lap in the opening session while SVG claimed the top speed in the final session. To keep things simple from an observation perspective, I am going to combine my thoughts from both sessions.

In general, I thought SVG flexed the most speed throughout all sessions on Saturday and will enter Sunday as the deserving outright favorite. AJ Allmendinger, William Byron, Chase Elliott, and Tyler Reddick appeared to all show speed worthy of contending. Reddick just barely missed the pole and was the only driver aside from SVG to break the 82 second bracket in qualifying which likely boosts his outlook ahead of Sunday. Meanwhile, I would call out names like Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Michael McDowell as names that appeared to be off in the speed department. Busch and McDowell rebounded a bit during qualifying however I did not like their pace in race trim. Lastly, I would also add Martin Truex Jr and Chris Buescher to the list of drivers that appeared to struggle on Saturday and may be trending in the wrong direction going into Sunday.

Betting Targets

At 2-1 odds, there is no way in hell that I am trying to bet on SVG. All respect to SVG’s talent but I’m not sure anyone deserves 2-1 betting odds at the ROVAL where track position and strategy will play a factor in how this race unfolds. Perhaps the good news with SVG’s ridiculous betting odds is that there is some value among the rest of the field. While AJ Allmendinger deserves consideration, I am personally gravitated to the likes of Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott, and perhaps William Byron as drivers that are excellent pivot options with much better value. Elliott has been terrific at the ROVAL and remains one of the best road course talents in the sport. Byron won earlier this year at COTA which is perhaps the most challenging road course on the schedule. Meanwhile, Reddick has easily been the best road course driver, outside of SVG, in the Cup Series with the Next Gen Car. Therefore, I simply like the betting value and realistic ceilings of those drivers in that intermediate betting odds range.

One thing that bettors should keep in mind this week is that strategy will be very important in the playoff race. We must consider the drivers that will have to race for stage points and those that may be able to optimize the strategy to go after the race win. For those reasons, I really like William Byron in H2H formats. While Byron could have a shot to contend for the victory, he can essentially clinch by staying out of trouble early in the race paving the way to flipping the final stage for an optimal finish. Another driver that fits into that narrative is Ross Chastain who leads our dynamic averages that I mentioned earlier. Chastain had a mediocre afternoon on Saturday but has shown recent momentum, road course stats, and should have the ability to utilize optimal strategy.

Deeper into the field, Alex Bowman and Bubba Wallace are among the drivers that are severely undervalued going into Sunday. Bowman has the best average finishing position at the ROVAL and has been performing well in the playoffs. As a result, I believe Bowman could easily march forward from his 17th place starting position and likely outrun everyone in his current betting odds range. Wallace is not known for his road course skills and honestly does not have great historical stats. However, Wallace has been performing better throughout the season compared to historical narratives. Furthermore, Wallace looked really solid in the speed department on Saturday yet is receiving enormous 100-1 betting odds. For that reason, Wallace is a potential betting consideration in H2H and prop bet formats!

2024 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Optimal Lineup

2024 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Tyler Reddick +800 (1 unit)
Chase Elliott +1000 (.75 unit)
William Byron +1200 (.75 unit)
Ty Gibbs +2800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ty Gibbs -115 over Daniel Suarez (3 units)
Ross Chastain -130 over Michael McDowell (2 units)
William Byron -130 over Christopher Bell (2 units)
AJ Allmendinger +300 wins Group 1 (SVG, Reddick, Larson)(1 unit)