2024 Drive for the Cure 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday October 12th, 2024. 4:00PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL
TV: USA

The opening round of the Xfinity Series playoffs will come to a close on Saturday with the running of the Drive for the Cure 250 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL. Last week, Sammy Smith scored his first victory of the season with a victory at Talladega Superspeedway. Smith previously made the postseason by securing the final spot in the playoffs and has already secured his advancement to the Round of 8 with the victory at Talladega. Going into Saturday’s return to the ROVAL, there are several big names that are in jeopardy of a first-round exit including the likes of Justin Allgaier, Shane Van Gisbergen, Sam Mayer, and others!

Despite being in jeopardy of not advancing, Shane Van Gisbergen has owned the road courses throughout the season and has captured 3 victories on the season. SVG is currently outside of the cutoff line which means he needs a strong afternoon that includes maximizing stage points. SVG has been nothing short of dominant this season on the road courses and will be a favorite to take down Saturday’s Drive for the Cure 250. With that being said, I personally believe this will be a tougher road course event for SVG to dominate because there are several drivers that have performed exceptionally well at the ROVAL who could have the opportunity to capture a victory as well.

The name leading that group of drivers is AJ Allmendinger who has never lost at the ROVAL in Xfinity Series competition. Allmendinger won 4 straight Xfinity Series races at the ROVAL from 2019-2022 and though he did not compete in last year’s race; Allmendinger won the Cup Series race at the ROVAL which speaks to how incredibly strong he has been at this venue. While I understand that Allmendinger has not been as strong as SVG at the road courses this year, I believe bettors can make a legitimate argument for the Dinger to be the outright favorite simply given his incredible resume at the ROVAL. With that being said, we should expect Allmendinger to be one of the guys to beat when the green flag waves on Saturday!

Handicapping and Betting Discussion

From a betting standpoint, don’t expect Saturday’s Drive for the Cure 250 to present the best betting opportunities especially in futures formats. SVG is currently at even odds for the win and Allmendinger is less than 3-1 betting odds. Therefore, the top two favorites have extremely saturated betting odds and for rightful reasons considering their resumes on the road courses and the ROVAL collectively. The chances of an SVG or Allmendinger win are extremely high and therefore stymies our betting value. Perhaps there are some drivers that have enough value to warrant low-risk plays in-case SVG and/or Allmendinger struggle but I would not classify any of those drivers as high-confidence plays.

For that reason, our best betting opportunities will likely be in H2H formats where we may be able to target drivers more aggressively depending on the match-up. To identify the drivers that are best suited for targeting in H2H match-ups, we should pay close attention to performances at the road courses throughout the 2024 season and also look at past races at the ROVAL for consideration as well. Those two items collectively will form the majority of our handicapping formula this week and will likely be the best path to profits. The only caveat that is worth mentioning is that the 2024 version of the ROVAL will be slightly different. Track officials slightly modified the infield layout between turns 6-7. The changes in turn 7 could produce some additional chaos but I don’t think the changes are significant enough to change our handicapping narrative that includes looking back at prior performances at the ROVAL because the layout is still very similar to the old layout!

Betting Targets

Without question, SVG and Allmendinger are the deserving favorites and I am somewhat gravitated to Allmendinger this week. I know the Dinger has a chip on his shoulder for not winning so far this season at the road courses and I have to believe this is his best opportunity to get back to victory lane. For that reason, I like creating parlay opportunities with Allmendinger’s current betting odds despite his rather conservative odds. While it may not yield crazy return value, I believe it creates the best potential value based on current odds and I have personally already locked-in a parlay with team Chevrolet winning on Sunday. I really like that bet considering all of the heavy hitters from the Chevrolet camp that will be competing on Sunday!

If we are going to take potential risks towards options outside of the top two favorites, Sheldon Creed and Sam Mayer are my personal favorite dark horses. Both drivers have shown strong performances throughout the season at the road courses and also have shown strong results at the ROVAL in previous years. Mayer is currently in a situation where he must maximize stage points which potentially hurts his ceiling. However, Creed appears to be in a safe points position and can potentially go after the win. Either way, I expect both drivers to perform well on Saturday which vaults them into consideration in H2H formats as well.

Another driver that fits a similar narrative is Parker Kligerman but perhaps with not quite the same ceiling. Kligerman has also been strong at the road courses all season and had a strong run during last year’s Drive for the Cure 250 making Kligerman another H2H option. Deeper into the field, I would also call out the likes of Alex Labbe and Josh Bilicki as potential guys that could have higher ceilings than current odds suggest. Labbe has always performed well at the ROVAL and Bilicki is a known road course talent that will be piloting Joe Gibbs Racing equipment this weekend. As a result, both drivers could provide value in H2H, fantasy, and prop bet formats.

2024 Drive for the Cure 250 Optimal Lineup

2024 Drive for the Cure 250 Betting Picks

*FINAL*

Sam Mayer +1200 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +2200 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Sheldon Creed -150 over Anthony Alfredo (3 units)
Riley Herbst -115 over Brandon Jones (3 units)
Cole Custer -115 over Connor Mosack (3 units)
Chandler Smith +500 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Jesse Love +1000 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

AJ Allmendinger +275 wins Drive for the Cure 250
Chevrolet -165 wins Bank of America ROVAL 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +500