2024 Enjoy Illinois 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday June 2nd, 2024. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: World Wide Technology Raceway
TV: FOX

Last week, NASCAR’s longest race on the schedule became one of the shortest races of the season when the Coca Cola 600 was shortened as a result of Mother Nature. The rain-shortened event handed Christopher Bell his 2nd win of the season to join William Byron, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson as the drivers with multiple wins this season. As things currently stand, the 2024 season has produced just 8 different winners through 14 races and only 11 races remain before the start of the playoffs. On Sunday, another opportunity awaits for Cup Series competitors when the green flag waves for the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway.

This Sunday’s Enjoy Illinois 300 will be just the 3rd race in series history at Gateway. The Cup Series debuted at Gateway, now known as World Wide Technology Raceway, back in 2022 during the debut season of the Next Gen Car. In the opening race back in 2022, Kyle Busch led the most laps in that event but Joey Logano emerged in the latter stages of the race to steal the victory while Busch finished in the runner-up position. However, Rowdy got his revenge in last year’s return to Gateway by winning in dominating fashion by leading 121 laps en route to victory. In that same race, Logano also posted another strong 3rd place result.

Needless to say if you look at the first two races at Gateway, Busch and Logano have stood out amongst the competition. However, neither Logano nor Busch has been performing well this season. In fact, anyone could argue both teams are struggling significantly on a week to week basis. Therefore, it will be interesting to see if this week’s return to Gateway perhaps opens the opportunity for Busch and/or Logano to earn this first victory of the season and lock-in a playoff position. If Busch and Logano continue to struggle, perhaps Gateway can still yield the opportunity for another first-time winner this season. Let’s discuss all of the handicapping indicators that drivers should explore as we attempt to put together a strong betting card!

Handicapping Strategy

For anyone unfamiliar with World Wide Technology Raceway, it is a 1.25 mile oval with two distinct ends of the track. In turns 1-2, the turns are narrow which requires heavy braking on entry and will provide drivers the opportunity to shift. In turns 3-4, the turns are more sweeping with drivers trying to apex the corner as early as possible to carry speed down the frontstretch and potentially set up passing opportunities in the braking zone entering turn 1. Needless to say, this track definitely has some unique characteristics and is unlike the majority of the tracks on the schedule. Also, the corners are relatively flat which requires a lot of car control and a good handling setup to ensure drivers can hammer down while still getting the grip to carry speed off the corners.

For these reasons, this track definitely tailors to drivers with this specific skill set which is why we have seen some familiar names at the front of these races. However, I don’t believe prior races at Gateway should be our only form of handicapping. We should also look at tracks like New Hampshire and Pocono which all share varying resemblances. If we combine the track style with our observations from on-track sessions from Saturday, we should be able to provide a pretty strong baseline of expectations. WIth that being said, I would still preach a cautious betting strategy. This track has historically been tough to handicap and I imagine Sunday’s Enjoy Illinois 300 will be another tough challenge.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

On Saturday, Cup Series’ teams had the opportunity to get their first taste of World Wide Technology Raceway for the weekend. Once the dust settled, Michael McDowell emerged as the pole winner following a fast lap of 138.598mph. Before the season, McDowell had never earned a pole but Sunday’s fast lap at Gateway marked his 3rd pole win of the season. McDowell will be joined by Austin Cindric on the front row which was another surprising qualifying effort. Behind the front row, a lot of heavy hitters in the likes of Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, and Denny Hamlin will fill the next two rows. The only real big surprise from qualifying surrounded the fact that Hendrick Motorsports cars all qualified outside the top 10, however all cars were in the 11th-17th range which is not too far outside of the picture.

In practice on Saturday, I thought Joey Logano was among the most impressive drivers which makes his 12th qualifying effort seem somewhat underwhelming. In practice, Logano posted the fastest lap of the session and also the best 5 and 10 lap consecutive averages. Hamlin also nearly had the best 15 lap average but Ryan Blaney and Denny Hamlin were best on those numbers. Personally, I thought Hamlin was easily the best car on the long-run which has been a theme this year with the #11 team. I also thought the 23XI Racing cars of Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace were among those drivers that showed really consistent speed on the long-run, potentially boosting their stock going into Sunday. Meanwhile, the Chevys from Hendrick Motorsports and the Fords from Stewart-Haas were among the groups of drivers that did not show strong speed in practice on Saturday.

Betting Targets

When I started this preview, I was pretty adamant that I would not take either Kyle Busch or Joey Logano simply based off of track history because both drivers have struggled so much this season. However, Logano has definitely checked off all the right indicators to prove he may contend on Sunday. Logano did win at the All-Star Race a few weeks ago and the Fords have looked better recently. Perhaps that is the perfect combination to get one of the sport’s best drivers back to victory lane. Despite being among the group of “favorites,” I think Logano has as much value as anyone on the entire board for Sunday’s Enjoy Illinois 300.

Denny Hamlin is likely the rightful outright betting favorite. While Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell are also deserving of “favorite” status, I’m not sure I like the betting value on either driver, especially Blaney who has ballooned to a 5-1 favorite. Instead, I believe there are worthy pivot options in the likes of Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr, and Kyle Busch are the drivers that are also producing value in the intermediate betting range. Originally, I was not going to bet on Busch simply based on the struggles from Richard Childress Racing but Rowdy’s betting odds are in a range where value can be found.

If you are looking for deeper H2H/prop bet options, Austin CIndric and Carson Hocevar are two drivers that appear poised to outperform their current betting odds. Even after a 2nd place qualifying effort, Cindric is listed in the 30-1 range. In that betting range, Cindric has value in both H2H/prop bet formats. Hocevar is a bottom-tier option that may be worth a look in low-risk/high-reward prop bet formats. The young driver looked really solid in practice and typically has his best performances at these tracks where driver input is so important. For deeper fantasy options, Carson Hocevar (value) and Ryan Preece (ceiling) are among the low-cost guys that I would expect to yield value.

Enjoy Illinois Optimal Draftkings Lineup

2024 Enjoy Illinois 300 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Joey Logano +800 (1 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +1000 (.75 unit)
Tyler Reddick +1200 (.75 unit)
Kyle Busch +1600 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Martin Truex Jr -130 over William Byron (2 units)
Tyler Reddick -115 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Joey Logano +275 finishes Top Ford (1 unit)
Carson Hocevar +550 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)