2024 Toyota 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday June 1st, 2024. 1:30PM (EST)
Where: World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway
TV: FS1

On Saturday, NASCAR’s Craftsman Truck Series and Xfinity Series will each get their opportunity in the spotlight for an exciting afternoon of racing. While the Xfinity Series prepares for road racing at Portland International Raceway, the Craftsman Truck Series will join the Cup Series at World Wide Technology Raceway at Gateway. Needless to say, bettors will have two opportunities to construct a profitable betting card on Saturday and it’s worth noting that this will be the last Truck Series race for the next 4 weeks until the series reconvenes in Nashville.

Last week, Nick Sanchez earned his 2nd win of the season following a dramatic finish at Charlotte. Sanchez joined Corey Heim and Kyle Busch as the only multi-winners in the Craftsman Truck Series this season. While Sanchez got the victory at Charlotte, Heim perhaps let the victory slip away after dominating the majority of the NC Education Lottery 200. Heim has won 2 of the last 3 races and has easily been the most dominant driver on a week to week basis. In fact, Heim has led the most laps in 4 straight Truck Series races and will enter this week as the outright betting favorite yet again.

To make matters more daunting for the competition, Heim won his only start at Gateway back in 2022. For those reasons, Heim is listed as an overwhelming betting despite a somewhat underwhelming 9th place qualifying effort on Friday. With that being said, there are still a few other drivers that should be on everyone’s radar going into Saturday that may provide advantageous betting opportunities. We will discuss observations from Friday’s on-track sessions and also look to identify drivers that have excelled at this style of racing at Gateway which features very flat corners and consistent shifting, especially in turns 1-2 and possibly at both ends of the track on long green flag runs.

Handicapping Strategy

As I typically say, every week the handicapping formula changes in the sport of NASCAR. Last week at Charlotte, our handicapping was primarily focused on in-season performance trends at the intermediate speedways. For this week’s race at Gateway, our focus will shift closer towards track history and similar track types. Gateway is one of those tracks that is very unique and often favors the drivers with the unique skill set who are able to make fast lap times on a flat surface which requires shifting and a ton of car (truck) control. Since this track favors drivers with a specific skill set, we can look back at prior history, at Gateway, as a reliable handicapping indicator and also revert back to similar track types to establish a solid foundation of expectations.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

Ty Majeski won the pole for the Toyota 200 late Friday with a fast lap of 138.658mph. Majeski’s lap was considerably faster than Christian Eckes, Nick Sanchez, Dean Thompson, and Tanner Gray who rounded out the top 5 qualifying positions. I do think track conditions played into some of the qualifying results. The track was considerably cooler in the later stages of qualifying but Majeski’s top speed was impressive despite the track conditions compared to others that went out even later in qualifying. Personally, I did not have any of the Thorsport Racing trucks on my radar going into Saturday but Majeski’s speed in practice and qualifying was downright impressive.

In practice which preceded qualifying, I thought Christian Eckes and Majeski were easily the most impressive trucks on the stopwatch. I was expecting Corey Heim to be the guy to beat once on-track activities began but Heim was not quite as strong as many expected, though surely within striking distance. I would also make noteworthy observations towards drivers like Nick Sanchez and last year’s winner Grant Enfinger. Sanchez had strong outright speed while Enfinger stood out as a driver/truck that did not fall-off much. Despite the size of Gateway, this track actually produces significant tire wear so long run speed will be important and that defending winner seemed to be trending in the right direction.

Betting Targets

Going into the weekend, I thought this would be a two-horse race between Corey Heim and Christian Eckes. However, I believe Friday’s on-track sessions proved that other contenders will be in the picture on Saturday. In fact, Ty Majeski has ballooned to the outright betting favorite following his pole performance in qualifying. While I believe that is a bit of an overreaction, I can’t deny that Majeski has shown tremendous speed. However, I will also point to Majeski’s win percentage and the struggles from Thorsport Racing as reasons to be less optimistic; especially at less than 2-1 odds. As a result, I think we can take the extra value on Eckes and/or Heim and perhaps even look at some of the deeper dark horses like Grant Enfinger and Nick Sanchez without killing our ROI. Enfinger and Sanchez both have enough value to target in all formats but may have diminishing value in H2H formats based on current betting odds.

For outright H2H options, I really like Stewart Friesen as a sharp play going into Saturday. Friesen has been solid in both practice and qualifying sessions this weekend and perhaps more importantly he has always been strong in prior races at Gateway proving his skill set is well suited for this style of racing. If he can avoid mishaps and trouble, Friesen has high-upside and a more realistic ceiling than the drivers with similar betting odds. Colby Howard and Connor Mosack are a few other names that have some H2H appeal if we find lower-tier match-ups. Howard will be in the #1 truck for TRICON Garage this weekend while Mosack will be making an appearance with Niece Motorsports. Both drivers are in solid equipment and have a high likelihood of moving forward making both drivers ideal H2H match-up and fantasy targets.

Draftkings Toyota 200 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2024 Toyota 200 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Corey Heim +350 (1 unit)
Grant Enfinger +850 (.75 unit)
Stewart Friesen +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Stewart Friesen -115 over Ben Rhodes (3 units)

Two Team Parlay

Christian Eckes +320 wins Toyota 200
AJ Allmendinger +200 wins Pacific Office Automation 147
Risking .75 unit to win: +870