2024 Coca Cola 600 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday May 26th, 2024. 6:00PM (EST)
Where: Charlotte Motor Speedway
TV: FOX

On Sunday, fans will be treated to the greatest day in motorsports which includes a full day of high profile racing events. The early hours will belong to Formula 1 with the running of the Monaco Grand Prix, the afternoon will belong to IndyCar with the running of the Indianapolis 500, and the evening will belong to NASCAR for the running of the Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway. The Coca Cola 600 is NASCAR’s longest race and considered one of the crown jewel races. The green flag is scheduled to wave shortly after 6pm and will race into the night time hours before crowning the winner of one of the most prestigious races in the sport.

Perhaps the key word in that opening dialogue is “scheduled” because rain is once again in the forecast for the Cup Series on Sunday. The good news is that most of the forecast calls for scattered storms so if we do experience rain; perhaps it will not be enough to postpone the event. Once racing is underway, we should expect good racing because Charlotte Motor Speedway has produced incredible racing throughout the weekend in ARCA, the Craftsman Truck Series, and the Xfinity Series. For whatever reason, it appears that the track is causing more significant tire wear and that has really brought out the best in Charlotte Motor Speedway. In every race this weekend, we have seen intense multi-groove racing with strategy playing an important factor as well and those are perfect ingredients for a Coca Cola 600.

Of course, one of the key storylines will be the fact that Kyle Larson will be attempting the historic double between the Indy 500 and the Coca Cola 600. From the betting side of the house, Larson’s attempt at the double does not change a lot. If anyone can pull off a successful 1100 miles of racing between Indianapolis and Charlotte, Larson is the guy to make it happen. For what’s it worth though, no prior driver attempting the double has ever won the Coca Cola 600. In total 4 drivers (John Andretti (1 attempt), Robby Gordon (5 attempts), Tony Stewart (2 attempts), and Kurt Busch (1 attempt)) have attempted the double and Tony Stewart’s finish of 3rd in the 2001 Coca Cola 600 still stands as the best finish among drivers that have attempted the grueling 1,100 miles of racing. Therefore, I can see arguments why some would want to avoid Larson this week simply based on the taxing schedule but I am not in the camp of people that are trying to avoid Larson, simply because he has been the best driver in the Cup Series this season on the 1.5 mile speedways.

Handicapping Strategy

So far this weekend, this new style of racing Charlotte Motor Speedway is producing has presented some challenges from the handicapping side of the house. Though we hit a race winner on Friday thanks to late race strategy, I also believe it killed our betting card in Saturday’s BetMGM 300. While strategy in the lower series is sometimes a product of the limited tires each series allows, I don’t think we can rule out strategy playing an important factor into how Sunday’s race unfolds. If that happens, don’t be surprised if we see another somewhat surprise winner in victory lane. Weirdly enough, I believe strategy has made the biggest impact on our H2H match-ups this weekend so perhaps I will be conservative on our H2H match-ups this weekend and perhaps throw out some extra dark horses for our win bets in hopes to hit a more value winner. Either way, bettors should simply realize there are a lot of variables that will come into play in Sunday’s race making this a somewhat less confident handicapping race.

Loop Data

One of the most important handicapping tools that we should observe this week is our dynamic averages that includes the last 5 races on 1.5 mile speedways. These dynamic averages are important towards showing the teams/drivers that have performed best at similar layouts. As you will see below, Kyle Larson has dominated the 1.5 mile speedways in recent races with a lucrative 129.7 average driver rating. Simply put, Larson has been the guy to beat at the 1.5 mile speedways and that is one of the reasons that I have been trying (unsuccessfully) to have him in a parlay this weekend to optimize his betting value.

Behind Larson, we start to see a lot of the Toyota drivers led by Denny Hamlin. While Hamlin is having a terrific start to the season, the power of the Toyota teams cannot be undermined and there are 4 Toyota drivers in the top 7 positions in our loop data rankings. As you will see in the section below, Toyotas were also very strong on Friday led by Ty Gibbs who earned his 1st career pole. Before we move on from our loop data metrics, I would also point out a few other noteworthy observations which includes underwhelming performance trends from the likes of Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, and Chris Buescher who are big name/talents that have not performed well on the 1.5 mile speedways in recent races producing sub 80.0 average driver ratings over the last 5 races.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

As mentioned earlier, Ty Gibbs won the pole for Sunday’s Coca Cola 600 with a fast lap of 183.955mph for his first career pole. Behind Gibbs, William Byron earned a front row spot ahead of Christopher Bell, Martin Truex, and Chase Elliott. It’s worth noting that all 4 Hendrick Motorsports drivers made it to the final round of qualifying but Larson and Bowman had somewhat disappointing laps in the final round. It’s also worth mentioning that Tyler Reddick qualified in the 8th position. However, Reddick will not only be forced to start from the rear on Sunday but will also have to serve a pass-thru penalty due to an unapproved adjustment being identified during inspection. Therefore, Reddick will be starting behind the 8-ball on Sunday.

In terms of practice observations on Saturday, Kyle Larson appeared to be the fastest guy in the pre-qualifying session. Larson led all drivers with the best 5 and 10 consecutive lap averages. Behind Larson, Ty Gibbs, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex were all posting very similar lap times. I would imagine that long-run speed is going to be the difference maker, however the split practice sessions simply did not offer long-run opportunities. William Byron actually posted the fastest lap of the session but did not run many consecutive laps at all which could be a good sign especially considering how he looked in qualifying. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell and Joey Logano were among the drivers that looked “off” in terms of pre-session expectations. Chris Buescher was solid but hit the wall which will force him to a backup car!

Betting Targets

As we look into potential betting targets, keep in mind that we should be leaning towards value based on the type of racing that Charlotte Motor Speedway has shown thus far this weekend (increased tire wear, low grip, tough passing, etc). While I can’t blame anyone from betting Kyle Larson or Denny Hamlin based on their collective dominance this season, both drivers are in the non-value bucket unless you can find creative ways to put them into a parlay with a much higher payout to yield sufficient ROI. With that being said, Martin Truex Jr and William Byron are likely your best pivot options among the favorites. Based on the race conditions I expect Sunday, Truex is really climbing the ladder as a guy that typically excels in longer races where tire wear plays a factor. As a result, Truex is one of the few guys that is justified betting in all formats.

In the intermediate range of drivers, things get very difficult. Pole sitter Ty Gibbs appears to have the fastest car he has shown in some time. Ryan Blaney had some really good lap averages in practice. Meanwhile, Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott have shown speed and some strong trends on the 1.5 mile surfaces. Reddick has a career 100 plus driver rating at Charlotte over 6 starts but again he will likely lose a lap early on due to the penalty. Current betting odds are making it very hard to find value as everyone of the drivers that I have mentioned are listed as less than 12-1. Deeper into the field, Chris Buescher, Ross Chastain, and Noah Gragson are the dark horses with long shot value potential especially in prop bet formats. Based on the way Gragson and Buescher have been running, I would also consider both drivers ideal H2H targets as well.

Draftkings Coca Cola 600 Optimal Fantasy Lineup

2024 Coca Cola 600 00 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Denny Hamlin +700 (1 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +750 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1200 (.75 unit)
Chris Buescher +2000 (.5 unit)
Noah Gragson +6000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Martin Truex Jr -115 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)
Ryan Blaney +100 over Christopher Bell (2 units)
Chase Elliott -145 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Noah Gragson +400 wins Group 4 (Bowman, Chastain, Wallace)(1 unit)
John Hunter Nemechek +1400 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)