2024 AdventHealth 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday May 5th, 2024. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Kansas Speedway
TV: FOX

On Sunday, the Cup Series will wave the green flag for the running of the AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway for what will officially be the 12th race of the season. Thus far this season, the Cup Series has produced just 6 different winners mainly due to the dominance of William Byron and Denny Hamlin who each have 3 wins each and are the only drivers with multiple wins. With that being said, Kansas Speedway has become one of those unexpected venues that have produced several surprise winners in recent years and we will look to take aim at a few underdogs yielding betting value.

Before we dive into track history and analytics, let’s first discuss our handicapping narrative. The intermediate speedways, like Kansas Speedway, are all about speed with the current rules package due to the fact drivers are nearly full-throttle the entire lap. These intermediate speedways are essentially the modern day horsepower tracks where engine power and ingenuitive aerodynamic advantages are going to show up on the stopwatch. For that reason, it is important to identify the drivers/teams that have consistently shown the most speed at these intermediate venues.

For those reasons, we will rely heavily on our dynamic averages, recent trends, and track history at Kansas Speedway to yield our betting selections. In terms of trends, I think it is worth noting early in this preview that Kansas Speedway has been dominated by the Toyota teams in recent years. Toyota teams have won the last 4 straight races at Kansas Speedway with 4 different drivers. Toyota teams have also won 7 of the last 9 races at Kansas Speedway overall. For whatever reason, the Toyota teams have simply performed phenomenally at Kansas and this is a track where they are confident that they can keep that trend going judging by some of the interviews this week. Therefore, we must keep that in consideration as we begin handicapping Sunday’s AdventHealth 400.

Kansas Speedway – Notes

• Denny Hamlin has the most all-time wins (4) at Kansas Speedway.
• Joey Logano (3), Kyle Busch (2), Martin Truex Jr (2), Brad Keselowski (2), Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, Bubba Wallace, and Tyler Reddick are all former winners at Kansas Speedway.
• Chase Elliott has a 10.6 average finishing position through 16 career starts, the best among all drivers.
• In the Next Gen Car, Denny Hamlin has finished 4th, 2nd, 1st, and 2nd in the last 4 starts at Kansas Speedway.
• Denny Hamlin has a 5.9 average finishing position over the last 10 races at Kansas Speedway, easily the best among all drivers.
• Kyle Larson has finished 4th or better in 4 of the last 5 starts at Kansas Speedway.
• Ross Chastain has finished 7th or better in 3 of the last 4 races at Kansas Speedway.
• Ryan Blaney has a poor 18.7 average finishing position over the last 10 races at Kansas Speedway.
• Toyota drivers have won the last 4 races at Kansas Speedway and 7 of the last 9 races.
• There have been at least 8 cautions in each of the last 4 races with the Next Gen Car.
• The eventual race winner has started outside the top 10 just twice in the last 14 races at Kansas Speedway.

Dynamic Averages

One of our most important handicapping metrics this week is our dynamic averages which shows performance results from the last 5 races at 1.5 mile speedways. As you will see, Kyle Larson has been absolutely amazing on the intermediate layouts with a lucrative 125.7 average rating. To articulate what it takes to produce a rating that high, Larson has led a minimum of 77 laps in each of the last 5 races at 1.5 mile venues, has led 43% of the overall laps in the last 5 races at 1.5 mile venues, and produced two victories. Needless to say, Larson has been absolutely incredible to produce the 125.7 rating that we see in our dynamic averages.

Behind Larson, we see familiar names like William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, and Ryan Blaney. One thing to potentially point out is that 6 Toyota drivers from Joe Gibbs Racing and 23XI Racing are in the top 10 of our dynamic averages which bodes well considering how strong they have performed at Kansas in recent years. Other potential observations include very disappointing results from Joey Logano (3-time Kansas winner), Kyle Busch (2-time Kansas winner), and Chase Elliott (former Kansas winner) who are among top talents in the sport and former winners at Kansas Speedway. While Elliott’s performance includes a couple of bad finishes, Busch and Logano’s results are more accurate with performance showing struggles from both teams at the intermediate layouts.

Practice and Qualifying Observations

Christopher Bell will lead the field to the green flag on Sunday after capturing the pole with a fast lap of 183.107mph. Interestingly, Bell and Ty Gibbs were the only Toyotas that qualified in the top 10 despite the fact that all the Toyotas looked strong in practice prior to qualifying. In practice, the 23XI Racing duo of Tyler Reddick (1st) and Bubba Wallace (3rd) were among the standouts. Both drivers have won the last two races at Kansas and posted two of the top 3 fastest laps of the session. However, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr, and Ty Gibbs were among the Toyota drivers that seemed to have the better lap times on the longer runs. Both Hamlin and Truex appeared to be really solid on the long haul which is characteristic to both driver’s driving styles.

Beyond the Toyotas, Kyle Larson and William Byron were easily the top two non-Toyota drivers and perhaps the best drivers overall. Byron and Larson led nearly every consecutive lap category and arguably has shown more speed than the Toyotas thus far this weekend. Larson has been the best driver on the 1.5 mile tracks and Byron is red-hot this season with 3 wins. Needless to say, both drivers appear to have another great opportunity going into Sunday based on the speed they have shown thus far this weekend. Other drivers that I thought were also pretty solid, from a practice perspective, included the likes of Chase Elliott, Bubba Wallace, and Noah Gragson. Meanwhile if you are wondering about the drivers that did not impress on Saturday, I would list almost everyone from the Ford camp. All of the Ford drivers seemed to struggle in practice and that included names like Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano who were far down the leaderboard. Therefore, it appears Ford’s struggles will continue into the weekend.

Betting Targets

For potential betting targets, I’m afraid Sunday’s AdventHealth 400 is going to be much like Saturday’s Heart of America 200. In Saturday’s Truck Series race, there was simply minimal betting value which forced into a conservative low-risk approach. Fortunately, we were able to hit a H2H match-up and parlay to squeak out a 2 unit profit and I feel like Sunday’s race is going to be another barn burner in terms of handicapping. Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin are the rightful favorites but have absolutely no value based on current betting odds. Perhaps the best value is William Byron at 10-1 odds due to the fact he will be starting at the rear of the field. However, Byron has shown enough speed to warrant consideration and may be a steal at his current number.

If we are looking at intermediate options or potential dark horses, Chase Elliott and Bubba Wallace are probably the best candidates in that category. Personally, I like Elliott and Wallace more in the realm of H2H targets rather than the outright victory. Meanwhile, Noah Gragson, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski are among the group of names that appear to be extremely undervalued. Obviously, the Ford drivers have looked awful which is the reason we are seeing ridiculous numbers on those drivers. Logano is a 3-time Kansas winner and is receiving 40-1 odds. While I believe the Ford struggles are real, I believe Logano, Gragson, and Keselowski are among the drivers with much higher upside than current betting odds suggest. As a result, all of those drivers can be potential betting targets in both H2H and prop bet formats.

2024 AdventHealth 400 DraftKings Optimal Lineup

2024 AdventHealth 400 Race Picks

*FINAL*

Denny Hamlin +500 (1 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +1100 (.75 unit)
William Byron +1200 (.75 unit)
Bubba Wallace +2200 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ross Chastain -145 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Chris Buescher -115 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)

Two Team Parlay

William Byron -165 over Bubba Wallace
Alex Bowman -105 over Ryan Blaney
Risking 1 unit to win: +213