2024 The LiUNA Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday March 2nd, 2024. 5:00PM (EST)
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: FS1
Racing action at Las Vegas Motor Speedway will continue into Saturday as the Xfinity Series takes center stage for the running of The LiUNA which will drop the green flag shortly after 5:00PM (EST). So far this season, Austin Hill has been the only winner in Xfinity Series competition due to back to back victories at Daytona and Atlanta. However, Las Vegas Motor Speedway promises to deliver a different product of racing which will be more consistent with other 1.5 mile venues. As a result, we hope to kick off “traditional” oval style racing with some Xfinity Series winning tickets!
On Friday, Xfinity Series teams and drivers had the opportunity to practice for the first time since Daytona. I believe practice observations were very important towards our handicapping efforts this week because this is the first race of the season on a true 1.5 mile speedway where drivers are not completely wide-open. Typically, performance metrics at 1.5 mile speedways can carry over to other similar venues which is a reason we typically handicap well towards the end of the year when in-season performance trends are easier to identify. For this week’s LiUNA at Las Vegas, we must keep an open-mind to potential performance trends to see what teams have gained or lost speed over the offseason.
Not only does the performance narrative drive some uncertainty this week but I also believe bettors should be very cautious through these opening weeks in the Xfinity Series. Personally, I believe the entire series is wide-open this year without any true “dominant” betting favorites from a week to week basis. In reality, the entire series has a ton of talent from veterans like Justin Allgaier, AJ Allmendinger, Cole Custer, and Aric Almirola who is making a part-time start for Joe Gibbs Racing on Saturday. Meanwhile, there are numerous other talents like Austin Hill, Jesse Love, Chandler Smith, Sam Mayer, Riley Herbst, and others who are trying to find success to help pave a way to the Cup Series. Needless to say, I believe most weeks we are going to have numerous drivers that deserve betting consideration which could make things difficult especially early in the season.
Historical Notes
While a new season could change historical narratives, I did want to go back to the last couple of races at 1.5 mile venues last season to highlight noteworthy observations. For starters, John Hunter Nemechek was the guy to beat on the 1.5 mile layouts for the majority of the 2023 season. Nemechek won 3 of the last 5 races at 1.5 mile venues and will clearly continue to be a threat in his part-time role with Joe Gibbs Racing this season in the #20 car. Behind Nemechek, Riley Herbst ended the 2023 season as one of the more surprising contenders at the 1.5 mile venues. Herbst captured his lone win of his Xfinity Series career in the fall race at Las Vegas and then finished runner-up to Sam Mayer at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Mayer and Herbst were surprise contenders at the end of 2023 and it will be interesting to see if those guys can regain momentum on the traditional ovals. From an organizational standpoint, Joe Gibbs Racing and JR. Motorsports were consistently the top teams at the 1.5 mile speedways but that is kind of easy to say when they also have the best drivers from a numbers standpoint. Surprisingly, there were a number of teams that displayed winning speed and when you combine the new season narrative, I’m not sure there are many organizational trends that I would rely on going into Saturday.
Practice Observations
As stated earlier, the Xfinity Series held a brief practice session at Las Vegas prior to qualifying Friday afternoon. Cole Custer emerged from qualifying with the pole with a fast lap of 181.281mph. Custer edged out Chandler Smith for the top spot and was followed by AJ Allmendinger, Parker Retzlaff, and Austin Hill in the top 5 qualifying positions. While qualifying displayed those guys with the best single lap speed, we know racing conditions will be different. In practice, I personally thought Justin Allgaier was significantly better than the rest of the field. Allgaier had the best 10 lap averages by a small margin but his times were actually much better than the stopwatch suggested because he went onto the track later than many cars. We might actually get some decent betting odds on Allgaier because he blew a tire during his qualifying run and will have to start at the rear of the field. However if they can replicate the race speed shown in practice, he may have a rocketship.
Behind Allgaier, Cole Custer, Riley Herbst, and Austin Hill were among the top guys in terms of overall speed and consistency. While Austin Hill’s opening wins have been overshadowed by the “superspeedway” narrative, Hill won last year’s spring race at Las Vegas and should be strong again due to the similarities of his track races which is very similar to a mini-superspeedway due to the grip level. Behind some of the big names and top teams, there were also some relatively surprising names towards the top of the speed charts. Parker Retzlaff has shown top 5 speed in nearly every session and qualified in the 4th position. Meanwhile, Corey Heim and Ryan Sieg were also among the group of lesser known drivers that were showing impressive lap times which may be useful in H2H situations.
Betting Targets
Based on current betting odds, I believe Justin Allgaier has the most betting value among the outright favorites and can likely be targeted in all formats. Somehow Cole Custer is an overwhelming favorite at less than 3-1 odds. While Custer’s talent is definitely top-tier, I’m not sure if anyone should be less than a 3-1 favorite at a track like Las Vegas where lap times are consistently in close proximity to the top guys putting an emphasis on track position. I wish John Hunter Nemechek had better odds because he has shown a history of dominance at the 1.5 mile tracks despite lacking a bit of speed in practice. Instead, I believe Austin Hill and Riley Herbst are both capable of winning and are perhaps better pivots with much better value for the outright win.
As I stated in the opening of this preview, our betting picks should be rather conservative especially when trying to predict a winner this week. Every new season yields a level of uncertainty and while we think we may have a good understanding of what to expect, reality is not always aligned. For those reasons, I like chasing the better value for the outright victory and then trying to identify a couple of sharp betting targets in H2H match-ups to produce our best chance towards profits. The drivers that I believe could produce value in H2H match-ups include Justin Allgaier, Parker Retzlaff, Jesse Love, and Anthony Alfredo which covers all of the different betting ranges. Retzlaff and Love have been very good at the superspeedways throughout the first 1-2 races and while Las Vegas is not a superspeedway, they have some similarities. Retzlaff has been fast all weekend and I believe Love will move forward after a slow start to the weekend. If we can find the right match-ups targeting these drivers, we will likely have them in our betting lineup!
2024 The LiUNA Betting Picks
*FINAL*
Justin Allgaier +750 (1 unit)
Austin Hill +750 (1 unit)
Riley Herbst +1100 (.75 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Austin Hill -150 over AJ Allmendinger (2 units)
Justin Allgaier +105 over John Hunter Nemechek (2 units)
