2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Picks

Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday November 5th, 2023. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: NBC

After 35 races and over 10 months of competition, NASCAR’s Cup Series will hold its championship race at Phoenix Raceway. Going into Sunday’s finale, Kyle Larson may be the slight overall favorite. The Hendrick Motorsports phenom is known as one of the world’s best drivers, even outside of NASCAR. On Sunday, Larson will have the opportunity to score his 2nd career Cup Series Title in just his 3rd year with Hendrick. Meanwhile, the other 3 championship contenders including teammate William Byron, Christopher Bell, and Ryan Blaney will all be seeking the opportunity to score their first championship as the future faces of the sport!

While the championship picture will get the majority of the attention, Kevin Harvick also deserves a nod of the cap as he closes out a historic career. As many are aware, Harvick entered NASCAR during its darkest moment following the Daytona 500 in 2001. Since that time, Harvick has recorded 60 career wins, a 2014 Cup Series Championship, two Xfinity Series championships, and a 2007 victory in the Daytona 500 in what has been an unquestionable Hall of Fame career. Perhaps more importantly for this weekend, Harvick enters his final race at his best track. Harvick’s 9 victories at Phoenix are the most all-time in NASCAR and he has recorded 20 straight top 10 finishes. If there was ever a place where Harvick could turn back the hands in time, Phoenix provides that opportunity to close out an incredible career on a high note.

With those storylines in mind, our focus will shift towards identifying the best betting opportunities for Sunday’s finale. Traditionally, these championship races have been difficult for bettors. The reason for the difficulty is rather simple. The championship drivers, who are always the betting favorites, have won the final race of the season every year since 2014 which was the first year this new playoffs format was instituted. In recent years, the championship contenders have even finished 1st-4th (2020), and 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th (2021). Needless to say, the championship contenders have dominated these season finales in the Cup Series and odds makers know these factors which is why we will rarely find any type of true betting value among the championship contenders. With that being said, we will still try to identify the best options for Sunday’s race but most of our betting value may be found in H2H match-ups and prop formats.

Handicapping Notes

In terms of handicapping Phoenix, there are several different factors that bettors should consider. Historical narratives are somewhat important but I would argue that in-season trends along with recent performances at similar layouts are perhaps more important when predicting performance with the Next Gen Car. Fortunately, our dynamic averages (short tracks) will shed light into how drivers/teams have performed over the last 5 races on the short tracks this season. As you will see in that data set, Denny Hamlin has been the best driver throughout the year on the shorter layouts while Martin Truex Jr, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Chris Buescher, and Brad Keselowski have all recorded respectable results.

Personally, I am not as interested in simple “short track” results because all short tracks are different. Back in the spring, William Byron captured a victory at Phoenix and he does not even show at the top of our dynamic averages. As a sharper handicapping narrative, I think bettors should pay close attention to performances at Phoenix, Richmond, and New Hampshire. I believe those tracks are most similar to each other and how drivers must roll the corners. If we strictly keep our narrative to recent races at those venues, Kyle Larson has easily performed the best at those tracks and finished inside the top 4 positions at 3 of those races. Behind Larson, it has mostly been strong results from the Toyota drivers of Martin Truex Jr, Denny Hamlin, and Christopher Bell. Other guys that have performed fairly well at those venues include both Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano despite the struggles of the Ford teams throughout the majority of the season. Meanwhile, lower-tier drivers that have produced above average results at similar venues could be centered around the teammates of Chase Briscoe and Ryan Preece who may be worth considering in H2H formats.

Practice Observations

Unlike most weekends this year, practice and qualifying was split into separate events this weekend. Cup Series’ teams practiced on Friday and qualified Saturday afternoon. At the end of both sessions, William Byron earned his 4th pole of the season with a fast lap of 132.597mph. Not only will Byron have the luxury from starting from the pole but he also earned the #1 pit stall for Sunday which will be a big advantage. In qualifying, Kyle Larson (4th) was the only other championship contender that made it to the final round of qualifying. Meanwhile guys like Martin Truex Jr (2nd), Kevin Harvick (3rd), and Denny Hamlin (6th) were among the other big names that also qualified upfront for Sunday’s green flag.

Specifically in practice, Kyle Busch edged out Bubba Wallace, Ryan Blaney, and Christopher Bell for the fastest lap in practice. As I often say, single lap times can be somewhat misleading. In race trim, Christopher Bell appeared to have the best speed. Bell fired off really well and posted the best 10 lap average early in practice. However, I was most impressed with the speed from Ryan Blaney especially towards the end of practice. Blaney had the fastest car in this race last year and seems to have brought similar speed again this weekend. Meanwhile, I would call out drivers like William Byron, Kevin Harvick, and Chris Buescher as having speed that was within striking distance. I was also pleasantly surprised with the speed from guys like Bubba Wallace, Ryan Preece, and Ross Chastain who appeared to be faster than most would have expected coming into the weekend.

Betting Targets

As I stated at the beginning of this preview, it is really tough to find considerable betting value among the championship contenders. In betting NASCAR races, bets can only be justified by the ROI that can be yielded and the championship contenders simply offer minimal value. Personally, I like the underdogs this week in and outside of the championship picture. I believe Ryan Blaney has been performing better than anyone in recent weeks and has shown elite speed in recent races at Phoenix. Both Blaney and Bell seem to be solid pivot options, with better value, than the heavy favorites in Byron and Larson.

Additionally, I’m not ruling out the possibility that a non-championship contender could capture the checkered flag for the first time in this playoff format. Potential low risk/high reward betting targets include names like Kevin Harvick, Chris Buescher, and Martin Truex Jr who all have shown speed worthy of winning consideration. Beyond futures (win) bets, I think focusing on H2H match-ups will present the best path to profits this weekend. Based on current betting odds, Joey Logano, Chase Briscoe, and Ryan Preece are among the drivers that have much higher ceilings than current odds suggest. In observing betting odds, I also believe all of those drivers have a high likelihood of outrunning drivers that are getting similar odds and will likely be paired against them in match-ups!

2023 Cup Series Championship Optimal Lineup

2023 Cup Series Championship Betting Picks

*Final*

Ryan Blaney +400 (1.25 units)
Kevin Harvick +800 (.75 unit)
Martin Truex Jr +1400 (.5 unit)
Denny Hamlin +1800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Tyler Reddick -115 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Ross Chastain -110 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
Chase Briscoe -110 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Michael McDowell -130 finishes Top 20 (2 units)