2023 Henry 180 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 28th, 2023. 3:00PM (EST)
Where: Road America
TV: NBC

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will kick off an eventful afternoon on Saturday with the running of the Henry 180 at Road America. While the Craftsman Truck Series and Cup Series will compete at Richmond Raceway this weekend, the Xfinity Series will participate in a standalone event in Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin. Saturday’s opening race will be the first of two betting opportunities considering the Truck Series will race under the lights at Richmond in the running of the Worldwide Express 250. Therefore, bettors should have plenty of racing to look forward to on Saturday.

Despite being nearly 1,000 miles away from Richmond, road course ace AJ Allmendinger will step down from Cup Series competition and compete in Saturday’s Henry 180. As many are aware, Allmendinger is among the best road course drivers in the business and has 11 career Xfinity Series wins at road course venues. Allmendinger is also a former winner at Road America dating back to his 2013 victory. Despite going 0-3 in this race over the last 3 years with finishes of 2nd, 4th, and 6th, Allmendinger strengthened the argument that he will be the guy to beat on Saturday after taking the pole with a track record fast lap of 111.606mph.

As you can imagine, Allmendinger will be the overall and heavy favorite going into Saturday’s opener. However, I would warn bettors that there are other drivers that appeared strong on Friday as well. Top Xfinity Series talents like Cole Custer, Justin Allgaier, and John Hunter Nemechek were all fast in Friday’s on-track sessions. Allgaier specifically was perhaps the most impressive in practice on Friday pacing the field by nearly a full second on the stopwatch. The former 2018 winner at Road America has finished in the top 5 in all 3 road course races this season and is poised to have one of his best opportunities to get back to victory lane. Meanwhile, Cole Custer has won 2 of the 3 road course style races already this season at Portland and Chicago. Therefore, Custer has earned the right to be among the top considerations going into the weekend.

Handicapping Strategy

For road course races, we rarely see a ton of value in futures (win) bets. Just as is the case with Saturday’s Henry 180, these road course events are usually top heavy with the favorites having a high probability of finding victory lane. As a result, there is usually minimal value in win bets for these races. Therefore, H2H match-ups tend to provide the most value proportionate betting opportunities. Since drivers make the most of lap times at road courses, narrow mistakes on pitroad or even less than optimum setups can still often be overcomed if we are targeting the better drivers in our match-ups. Therefore, targeting the sharp drivers/match-ups will be our primary focus on Saturday to yield our best opportunity towards profits.

Practice Observations

I am not going to spend a ton of time talking about practice speeds. I already alluded to practice observations above by mentioning Allgaier’s fast lap speed and some of the other popular names that were at the top of the speed charts. Aside from the names already mentioned, Riley Herbst had a great afternoon on Friday in the #98 car. Herbst’s lap times were in the top 5 in both practice and qualifying. Herbst has finished 7th in each of his last two starts at Road America and appears to have a really fast car for the race yet again. Meanwhile, guys like Kaz Grala, Connor Mosack, and Josh Bilicki were all in the top dozen cars in both practice and qualifying on Friday from the group of less-known talents. Mosack specifically is in better equipment this week in the #19 for Joe Gibbs Racing. After getting a lot of seat time in recent weeks, perhaps Mosack’s ceiling should be raised going into the weekend.

Betting Targets

For the outright win, Allmendinger is obviously the favorite going into Saturday. However, Allmendinger has not exactly been overwhelmingly impressive at Road America compared to other road course venues like the ROVAL, Mid-Ohio, and Circuit of the Americas. Therefore, I lean towards chasing better value with the likes of Allgaier and Custer for the outright win. Qualifying times were extremely close so I am not too concerned with starting positions among the top 5. As a result, I could even pivot towards Allgaier considering the speed shown in practice and his resume at Road America as the best betting value for the outright victory.

For H2H targets, Riley Herbst is an obvious choice that appears to be trending in the right direction. There were a lot of guys like Josh Berry, Brandon Jones, Chandler Smith and others that struggled on Friday that would normally be far ahead of Herbst on the performance scale. However, I would prefer Herbst in the majority of match-ups even if favored against better oval talents. Additionally, guys like Kaz Grala, Connor Mosack, and Parker Kligerman are additional betting targets that appear to have much higher ceilings than current odds suggest. Obviously the kicker is that we must evaluate each match-up for the best betting value. Therefore, check back later for final match-ups after I have had the opportunity to evaluate them all!

Draftkings Henry 180 Optimal Lineup

2023 Henry 180 Race Picks

*Final*

Cole Custer +400 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1000 (1 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

John Hunter Nemechek -115 over Parker Kligerman (2 units)
Justin Allgaier -140 over Sheldon Creed (2 units)
Riley Herbst -135 over Kaz Grala (2 units)