2023 Alsco Uniforms 250 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 8th, 2023. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Atlanta Motor Speedway
TV: NBC
Early Saturday, NASCAR’s Craftsman Truck Series will kick off the opening race of the weekend with the running of the O’Reilly Auto Parts 150 at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. However by nightfall, the Xfinity Series will take center stage for superspeedway style racing at Atlanta Motor Speedway with the running of the Alsco Uniforms 250. Back in March, Austin Hill backed up his season opening Daytona victory with another superspeedway victory in the Raptor King of Tough 250 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The win was Hill’s 2nd straight at Atlanta going back to last season and he has become ‘the’ driver to beat in Xfinity Series competition at the superspeedways. For Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 250, Hill will once again be the overall betting favorite in his quest for a 3-peat.
While Austin Hill’s success at the superspeedways has been unprecedented, it’s rarely advisable to bet on the outright favorites at the superspeedways. The risk vs. reward threshold is just simply too lopsided. For Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 250, Cup Series talents Justin Haley and Ty Gibbs will also be joining the competition with the Xfinity Series regulars. Both Haley and Gibbs have been excellent superspeedway talents in their Xfinity Series careers and perhaps their presence could create some parity among the outright favorites. Still, we want to explore all betting options because we know the potential for surprise winners are higher for this style of racing just as Jeb Burton proved at Talladega earlier this year.
From a handicapping perspective, the Xfinity Series will not hold any practice opportunities prior to Saturday’s green flag. Qualifying is scheduled for late Saturday afternoon just a few hours before the scheduled start. Obviously, practice observations tend to be useless at the superspeedway events anyway so that does not necessarily change any betting approach. However, I just wanted to bring up the scheduling factor because I don’t think there is any reason to wait on locking-in bets unless we are gambling on the fact that a driver’s odds could get better following a disappointing qualifying run. Either way, I think we can go ahead and jump into reviewing the prior superspeedway performances this season to perhaps identify the drivers that deserve some focus going into the weekend.
2023 Superspeedway Loop Data
Before we adjust our focus to the loop data metrics below, I think it is worth mentioning that Austin Hill (2) and Ty Gibbs (1) are the only Xfinity Series winners at Atlanta since the repave/reconfiguration that essentially turned Atlanta into a mini-superspeedway. Drivers are essentially wide-open around this racetrack and relying on the drafting techniques to make their way to the front of the field. Now Atlanta is not as wide as the other superspeedways like Daytona and Talladega so track position is definitely a factor because there is simply less room to make big moves. Therefore, I think loop data is an important handicapping tool this week towards identifying the drivers (skill) and cars (speed) that have consistently run upfront in these events. We will be paying close attention to average driver ratings and average running position in our metrics below.
As you see, Austin Hill has clearly been the driver to beat at these superspeedway races this year. If the two wins were not convincing enough, Hill is averaging a lucrative 120.7 average rating. However behind Hill it gets a bit more surprising with the likes of Riley Herbst, Parker Kligerman, Brett Moffitt, and Jeb Burton all in the upper echelon of average ratings. Surprisingly, Herbst and Brett Moffitt have the 2nd and 3rd highest average running positions in the field despite not being known as “superspeedway” talents. Meanwhile, we see a lot of the expected frontrunners from J.R. Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing in the middle of the pack in terms of our performance metrics. Keep in mind, these metrics do not guarantee anything for Sunday but they do paint a pretty common trend line that must be considered as well.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|
| Austin Hill | 120.7 | 1.7 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 113 | 11 | 156 | 409 |
| Riley Herbst | 93.5 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 11.3 | 9.7 | -5 | 13 | 11 | 398 |
| Justin Haley | 91.0 | 18.5 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 288 |
| Parker Kligerman | 90.7 | 17.7 | 13.0 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 31 | 8 | 6 | 409 |
| Jeb Burton | 90.5 | 14.7 | 12.7 | 9.3 | 13.7 | 77 | 16 | 17 | 409 |
| Brett Moffitt | 90.0 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 15.7 | 10.7 | -20 | 3 | 20 | 408 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 87.0 | 4.0 | 15.3 | 14.0 | 12.0 | -1 | 8 | 18 | 369 |
| Cole Custer | 85.7 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 409 |
| Sheldon Creed | 85.3 | 4.3 | 13.3 | 19.0 | 15.3 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 325 |
| Justin Allgaier | 84.6 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 20.0 | 13.3 | 38 | 5 | 43 | 302 |
| Josh Berry | 82.9 | 15.7 | 6.7 | 21.0 | 12.7 | 71 | 10 | 17 | 388 |
| Brandon Jones | 82.6 | 17.7 | 7.3 | 15.7 | 13.0 | -32 | 10 | 10 | 409 |
| Daniel Hemric | 81.4 | 8.7 | 18.0 | 19.7 | 16.7 | 22 | 5 | 15 | 293 |
| Sam Mayer | 80.4 | 13.3 | 8.7 | 21.7 | 12.7 | 59 | 4 | 14 | 387 |
| Chandler Smith | 79.9 | 8.3 | 17.7 | 21.7 | 13.7 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 362 |
| Ryan Sieg | 79.7 | 22.3 | 11.3 | 13.7 | 12.7 | 48 | 7 | 18 | 398 |
| Anthony Alfredo | 79.1 | 10.3 | 24.3 | 25.0 | 18.3 | 18 | 14 | 23 | 325 |
| Parker Retzlaff | 78.0 | 12.3 | 20.7 | 12.7 | 17.7 | -3 | 10 | 2 | 400 |
| Jeremy Clements | 73.2 | 32.7 | 15.3 | 17.0 | 18.3 | 27 | 11 | 0 | 408 |
| Brennan Poole | 66.3 | 22.3 | 20.0 | 17.0 | 23.3 | -21 | 7 | 2 | 365 |
| Joe Graf Jr | 65.6 | 27.0 | 23.7 | 17.3 | 22.7 | -48 | 9 | 0 | 401 |
| Sammy Smith | 63.8 | 9.3 | 24.7 | 23.0 | 20.7 | -35 | 7 | 0 | 351 |
| Gray Gaulding | 59.3 | 28.0 | 19.3 | 16.0 | 22.3 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 409 |
| Josh Williams | 58.7 | 23.3 | 23.7 | 19.0 | 24.7 | -1 | 11 | 0 | 279 |
| Parker Chase | 53.8 | 29.0 | 25.5 | 27.0 | 26.0 | -16 | 2 | 0 | 162 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 48.1 | 24.7 | 24.7 | 31.0 | 26.3 | -45 | 1 | 0 | 218 |
| Kaz Grala | 45.6 | 30.3 | 32.0 | 30.3 | 27.7 | -63 | 2 | 0 | 203 |
| Garrett Smithley | 45.0 | 31.5 | 29.5 | 26.0 | 30.5 | -40 | 1 | 0 | 132 |
| Ryan Ellis | 44.0 | 31.7 | 29.7 | 23.0 | 28.3 | -11 | 1 | 0 | 325 |
| Blaine Perkins | 42.5 | 32.3 | 30.7 | 31.0 | 30.0 | -11 | 1 | 0 | 229 |
| Kyle Sieg | 42.4 | 26.3 | 27.7 | 20.7 | 27.7 | -76 | 7 | 0 | 407 |
Betting Targets
I routinely state that we could make arguments for any driver at the superspeedway races and have a leg to stand on. However, my betting targets are mostly related to the drivers/teams that consistently put themselves in positions to make something happen at these races and have decent betting value. With that being said, my favorite driver from an odds standpoint is Justin Haley who is receiving surprisingly generous 10-1 odds going into Saturday. Haley has always been best at the superspeedway venues and has the power with the #10 team to get the track position that can give him a legitimate chance at victory. I was very shocked to see guys like Ty Gibbs and Sheldon Creed receiving smaller numbers than Haley. Therefore, I will not pass up on perhaps the best superspeedway talent in the field.
Behind the top 4-5 guys is where things turn into a crapshoot. Justin Allgaier and John Hunter Nemechek are some solid pivot options among the favorites. However, I tend to continue to seek better betting value in hopes of big underdog style victory. Riley Herbst, Sam Mayer, Brett Moffitt, and Ryan Sieg are among the group of guys that I believe provide excellent value based on current betting odds. Sieg is one of my favorite dark horse targets at every superspeedway race. He consistently runs upfront despite not getting the finishes to show for it in recent races. Still, these are the types of drivers that yield big underdog potential and additional value in prop bet formats as well. For perhaps deeper prop bet options or fantasy fliers, don’t overlook the talents of Parker Retzlaff and Anthony Alfredo who both appear to exceed their equipment in these superspeedway events.
2023 Alsco Uniforms 250 Race Picks
*Final*
Justin Haley +1000 (1 unit)
Parker Kligerman +2000 (.5 unit)
Sam Mayer +2000 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +2000 (.5 unit)
Brett Moffitt +4000 (.25 unit)
H2H Match-ups and Props
Justin Haley -110 over John Hunter Nemechek (2 units)
Riley Herbst +575 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Parker Retzlaff +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
