Toyota SaveMart 350 Fantasy Preview
By: NASCAR Wagers, NASCAR Handicapping Service
On Sunday, Jimmie Johnson became the first 3 time winner in 2014 by winning at Michigan International Speedway. It was just a few weeks ago that Johnson was receiving a lot of flak from the media after he was winless going into the Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte. Critics were quick to point out that it was Johnson’s longest winless streak to start any season throughout his prestigious career. Well Johnson has since won 3 of the last 4 races while placing himself in the #1 spot in the Chase and it is safe to say that the #48 team has hit their summer groove. This week Johnson and the rest of the Sprint Cup Series will step away from oval racing to take a visit to Sonoma Raceway for some interesting road course action. Let’s take a look at our early Toyota SaveMart 350 fantasy preview.
Outside of Johnson’s hot streak, it is hard to ignore Hendrick Motorsports has also been very hot in recent weeks as well. Outside of Johnson’s 3 wins, Hendrick Motorsports has won 5 straight points races going back to Jeff Gordon’s win at Kansas along with Dale Earnhardt Jr’s win at Pocono two weeks ago. One of the questions heading into the weekend is can the Hendrick car’s be stopped? At first glance it appears probable that Hendrick’s streak will conclude this week as road course racing typically provides a level playing field. However, Hendrick’s streak could easily continue for two simple reasons, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. Gordon has posted a lucrative 6.9 average finish over his last 10 races including 9 Top 10 finishes during that stretch. Gordon’s 5 wins are the most in Sonoma Raceway history and he has been very close in recent years with 2 runner-up finishes in his last 3 starts. Johnson has been solid as well winning in 2010 and posting 5 straight top 10 finishes. As we say every week, never count out the #48. For this week’s sake, don’t count out any Hendrick car.
Outside of Johnson and Gordon, there are a few other drivers that could easily find their way to victory lane this week. A few guys that have been running well that also are typically strong at Sonoma include Clint Bowyer and Kurt Busch. Bowyer has the 2nd best average finishing position among all active drivers. Bowyer has 1 victory (2012) and 5 Top 5 finishes in his 8 career starts. More importantly Bowyer has been running very well in recent weeks and it is pretty clear the #15 team has turned the corner after a slow start to the season. Kurt Busch has also been running strong. The #41 team finished 3rd at Pocono and ran up front with the leaders all afternoon at Michigan before pit strategy delegated the elder Busch to a 13th place finish. Still, Busch has been impressive at Sonoma finishing 1st, 4th, and 3rd in his last 3 starts. With better equipment this season, it is hard to imagine that Busch will not be a factor by the time the checker flag waves on Sunday.
Of course anytime road course races roll around, Marcos Ambrose is among the favorites. The Aussie is a profound road course ringer and has posted 5 straight top 8 finishes through his 6 career starts. Of those races, Ambrose has only truly contended for the win in one of those races namely in 2009. However if you are looking for someone that should be rock solid on your fantasy roster, it would be hard to leave the #9 driver off your roster. In fantasy cap leagues that do not adjust on a weekly basis, Ambrose is a must-have. If you are looking for a few diamonds in the rough for this week’s fantasy lineup, consider guys like Carl Edwards and AJ Allmendinger. Allmendinger’s open wheel experience has proven to be worthy at road course races. Allmendinger won last year’s Nationwide Series race at Road America and has finished no worse than 13th in his last 4 starts at Sonoma in a Cup ride. Edwards has been hit and miss at Sonoma but his bad finishes were due to bad luck more often that bad runs. Edwards has posted two 3rd place finishes in the last 3 years and has posted several respectable runs at the 2.52 mile road course. These goods should add plenty of value to your fantasy rosters and we wish everyone the best of luck in the week ahead. As always, check back throughout the week as we break down betting previews and give our predictions on the Toyota SaveMart 350.
