2023 Alsco Pennzoil 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday March 5th, 2023. 3:49PM (EST)
Where: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
TV: FOX

NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to Sin City on Sunday for the running of the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. So far this weekend, Las Vegas has produced excellent racing in the lower touring series and that is because these drivers are essentially wide-open every lap with multiple lanes to choose. For Cup Series competition, I’m expecting more similar style racing on Sunday in the Next Gen Car which produced 23 lead changes in the spring race last year at Las Vegas. This race on Sunday will likely favor the drivers that can minimize the time off the throttle and drive the car on the edge.

Obviously the Next Gen Car has greatly leveled the playing field and that means there are more drivers that can potentially win these 1.5 mile races especially at a venue like Las Vegas which is not overly difficult from the driver seat. As a result, I imagine drivers and teams will be playing the strategy game throughout Sunday afternoon in an attempt to get their driver out front and in clean air. Following Saturday’s practice and qualifying, we have some early observations that could point us in the right direction. We will discuss those observations and also take a look at how drivers/teams performed throughout 2022 on the 1.5 mile surfaces to steer us towards the best betting options in the gambling paradise of the world.

Before we start to dive into our handicapping angles, I think we should call out the fact that unlike the Xfinity Series, the Cup Series will not be running the exact same cars that they competed with last week at Fontana. Perhaps some teams will elect to use similar equipment but it does not come as a requirement like it was for the Xfinity Series which introduced the concept to help reduce overall cost throughout the garage. Therefore, we do not necessarily need to hang our hat on any observations from last week’s Pala Casino 400. With that being stated, I will say that I was extremely impressed with the outright speed from the Trackhouse Racing cars last week and we will definitely need “raw” speed to be on our side with our selections for the Pennzoil 400.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway – Cup Series Quick Notes

• Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski are tied for the most wins (3) among active drivers at Las Vegas
• Logano’s 3 wins have all come within the last 8 races at Las Vegas including the most recent trip to Sin City last October. Logano also leads all drivers with the best average finishing position (8.5) throughout his career in Vegas.
• Despite only 1 career win at his home track, Kyle Busch has produced 11 top 5 finishes in 23 career starts at Vegas
• Martin Truex Jr has finished 8th or better in 10 of the last 11 races at Las Vegas which also includes two victories
• Bubba Wallace has just one top 15 finish at Las Vegas, in 10 career starts, via a 6th place result in 2020
• Las Vegas typically produces minimum cautions. However in both races in the Next Gen Car last year, Vegas produced caution totals of 12 and 8.
• Josh Berry will replace Chase Elliott in the #9 for the Pennzoil 400. Elliott reportedly broke his leg and will miss several weeks of racing.

Practice Observations

I mentioned above that Joey Logano won the most recent race at Las Vegas last October and Logano kept his Vegas momentum going on Saturday by capturing the pole with a lap of 186.053mph. Therefore, I think we put Logano towards the top of the list before noting any observations. For the rest of the competition, I will refer to Saturday’s brief practice session as the best gauge of on-track observations. In practice, Kyle Larson took the honors of the fastest man in practice with a speed of 184.407mph. Larson was followed by the likes of Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Chris Buescher, and William Byron who were the fastest 5 in terms of single lap speed.

In terms of race speed, it was hard to gauge true race trim due to the brief nature of practice. However, I will say that Logano, Blaney, Byron, and Larson appeared to be the most consistent throughout all metrics on Saturday. I would also throw Kevin Harvick and Ross Chastain as notable mentions. Both Harvick and Chastain showed solid speed in the consistency department. I also think both of those drivers displayed solid speed last week at Fontana which perhaps boosts their stocks for Sunday. Other notable mentions among drivers that were trending positive light from a practice perspective includes Aric Almirola, Chris Buescher, and Harrison Burton.

Cup Series 1.5 Mile Loop Data

Before we solidify any selections based on Saturday’s observations, I think it is important to take into consideration the way teams/drivers performed at the 1.5 mile intermediate speedways in 2022. If we take a look at the last 5 races on 1.5 mile speedways via our dynamic averages, Ross Chastain, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, and William Byron were the top 5 drivers over the course of those events. Oddly enough, those drivers are the same names already called out above. Therefore, I think there is a case to be made for any of the drivers among the top of our dynamic averages at the intermediate layouts.

Betting Strategy and Targets

Current betting odds are pretty solid among the top 5-6 drivers which include the likes of Logano, Busch, Larson, Byron, Blaney, and Chastain. Personally, I believe Byron, Larson, and Logano are likely the best of those options. The problem is that current betting odds give us little to be excited about with each of those drivers receiving less than 8-1 odds. Simply put, there is not much value in win (futures) odds this week. I could make arguments for small plays on longshots like Kevin Harvick (+2500) and Tyler Reddick (+3000) as more reasonable small-risk plays that provide more ROI value.

For that reason, this week’s betting lineup will be relatively conservative on the side of win (futures) bets. Instead, I will be looking to exploit value between individual driver pairs in the form of H2H match-ups. Some of the drivers that I really like, based on the drivers within their current odds range, include guys like Kevin Harvick, Bubba Wallace, and Chris Buescher are your likely betting targets that have the highest ceiling compared to current odds. Chris Buescher specifically has been very consistent at Las Vegas throughout his career with inferior equipment. Therefore, his ceiling in this new car increases with that narrative. Meanwhile, Bubba Wallace is a driver that ran extremely well at Kansas (win) and Las Vegas (29 laps led) in the playoffs late last season. Therefore, Wallace perhaps deserves some sharp value as a driver has a higher ceiling than current odds suggests.

Draftkings Alsco Uniforms 300 Optimal Lineup

2023 Alsco Uniforms 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Joey Logano +600 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +900 (1 unit)
Kevin Harvick +2500 (.5 unit)
Bubba Wallace +3000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Kevin Harvick -115 over Tyler Reddick (3 units)
Aric Almirola -115 over Ricky Stenhouse Jr (3 units)
Bubba Wallace +400 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Chris Buescher +250 finishes Top 10 (1 unit)