2023 NASCAR Cup Championship Odds
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Betting Preview
By Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
We are just less than a month away from returning to racing for an exciting new season in NASCAR. Following a successful debut of the Next Gen Car which produced a record 19 victories by different drivers, the 2023 campaign is building with anticipation for another blockbuster year. Additionally, there are several huge storylines going into the new year which will be followed throughout the year including Kyle Busch’s debut at Richard Childress Racing, Kevin Harvick’s farewell tour, AJ Allmendinger’s return to the Cup Series, and many other intriguing aspects which fuel the fire at NASCAR’s top level. As we prepare for another promising season of NASCAR betting, I wanted to take a look at the 2023 season in the proper NASCARWagers’ lens by examining the early 2023 Cup Series Championship betting odds!
Before we examine current betting odds and potentially target a few drivers with betting value going into the 2023 season, I must first remind everyone that I am not a huge fan of championship betting in NASCAR especially early in the season. The NASCAR playoff format is built for entertainment opposed to rewarding the most consistent front-runners throughout the year. As a result, drivers can essentially dominate the early part of the season and have just 1-2 weeks of bad luck to find themselves eliminated in the playoffs. Perhaps now more than ever, the Next Gen Car makes it even more difficult for drivers to overcome the threat of bad luck and that makes championship futures very tricky to predict. With that being said, I think there are different types of betting strategies that can still yield upside for championship betting.
Personally, I have favored a strategy throughout the years that sprinkles a few bets on 2-3 drivers every couple of weeks in hopes of compounding value for a payout at the end of the year. I personally like that strategy because it allows bettors to reevaluate their championship targets consistently throughout the season as odds fluctuate. For now, I am going to deviate from season-long strategies and simply focus on current betting odds. As bettors are aware, the Next Gen Car has done a great job of providing parity in the Cup Series and that includes additional challengers for the championship. Before the beginning of the 2022 season, I don’t know of many people that would have put their money on guys like Christopher Bell and Ross Chastain to earn a ticket to the Championship 4 yet both of those drivers were in the fight for a championship at Phoenix. As a result, I want to look at the 2023 Cup Series odds (below) very objectively and give my thoughts on a few drivers that may be worth early consideration!
2023 Cup Series Championship Betting Odds
| Driver | Odds |
|---|
| Chase Elliott | +575 |
| Kyle Larson | +600 |
| Denny Hamlin | +800 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1000 |
| William Byron | +1200 |
| Kyle Busch | +1200 |
| Martin Truex Jr | +1200 |
| Joey Logano | +1200 |
| Christopher Bell | +1200 |
| Ross Chastain | +1200 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1600 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1800 |
| Alex Bowman | +2800 |
| Chase Briscoe | +4000 |
| Bubba Wallace Jr | +4000 |
| Austin Cindric | +5000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +5000 |
| Ryan Preece | +5000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +6600 |
| Erik Jones | +10000 |
| Chris Buescher | +10000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +10000 |
| Noah Gragson | +10000 |
| AJ Allmendinger | +10000 |
| Austin Dillon | +20000 |
| Justin Haley | +20000 |
| Aric Almirola | +20000 |
| Harrison Burton | +30000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | +30000 |
| Michael McDowell | +30000 |
| Todd Gilliland | +50000 |
| Corey Lajoie | +50000 |
| Cody Ware | +50000 |
| Ty Dillon | +50000 |
| BJ McLeod | +50000 |
The Favorites
| Driver | Odds |
|---|
| Chase Elliott | +575 |
| Kyle Larson | +600 |
| Denny Hamlin | +800 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1000 |
| William Byron | +1200 |
| Kyle Busch | +1200 |
| Martin Truex Jr | +1200 |
| Joey Logano | +1200 |
| Christopher Bell | +1200 |
| Ross Chastain | +1200 |
There are currently 10 drivers listed at 12-1 odds or less for the 2023 Cup Series Championship and it would be hard to argue against any of those drivers’ chances to make a run at a title. Surprisingly, 2022 Cup Series Champion Joey Logano is listed at prime 12-1 odds for the chance at a repeat which is fairly generous considering how versatile Logano is as a driver. The prior two Cup Series champions in Kyle Larson (2021) and Chase Elliott (2020) are currently the biggest favorites on the board. Elliott was the 2022 regular season champion and the most consistent front-runner throughout the season which easily justifies his betting odds. While I am a fan of Larson, I’m not sure he displayed the same strength to warrant such a low number. Meanwhile, I could make an argument for nearly every other driver in this list with the exception of Martin Truex Jr who is coming off one of his worst seasons in recent memory and a driver I believe has regressed significantly in the Next Gen Car. Needless to say, I would not put any bets on Truex until proven otherwise. If I had to chase value among the favorites at this point in the season, Christopher Bell (+1200) and Joey Logano (+1200) deserve solid consideration as the best value bets in this group!
Intermediate Challengers
| Driver | Odds |
|---|
| Tyler Reddick | +1600 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1800 |
| Alex Bowman | +2800 |
| Chase Briscoe | +4000 |
| Bubba Wallace Jr | +4000 |
| Austin Cindric | +5000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +5000 |
| Ryan Preece | +5000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +6600 |
While you could basically throw a dart at any of the favorites for early championship consideration, I believe the true handicapping and expertise of the sport becomes more valuable the deeper you go in the field. In the range of drivers currently receiving intermediate betting odds, Tyler Reddick is on the lower side of this list, perhaps more close to the betting odds of the “favorites.” However, I believe Reddick is a prime candidate to challenge for a championship. For those that remember, I had Reddick pegged as my breakout driver of the year before the 2022 season. While a few could argue that Ross Chastain or Christopher Bell deserved that title, Reddick delivered 3 wins and was becoming one of the most dangerous drivers in the sport before his premature playoff exit. Now with 23XI Racing and essentially JGR equipment, Reddick has the potential and equipment to take another step forward. At 16-1 odds, this is about as good as you can ask for pertaining to a legitimate championship contender.
As we move down the list of drivers in the “intermediate” range of championship hopefuls, I believe Kevin Harvick deserves respect at 18-1 odds. While Harvick definitely appears to be on the downside of his career, let’s not forget that Stewart-Haas Racing has struggled significantly as an organization over the last two years. I still believe Harvick is capable of contending for a title, which he proved with back to back wins at Michigan and Richmond last year, if the organization can find the speed they have been missing. If the Stewart-Haas Racing guys improve this season, I believe Chase Briscoe at 40-1 odds is a downright steal. Briscoe scored an early win at Phoenix in the spring race last year and closed out the season with top 10 finishes in 5 of the last 6 races. I think people forget how dominant Briscoe was in the Xfinity Series before becoming a full-time Cup Series driver and part of the problem has been the SHR struggles. Like Harvick, I think Briscoe has potential at his current betting odds for a potential surprising championship run.
Dark Horses
| Driver | Odds |
|---|
| Erik Jones | +10000 |
| Chris Buescher | +10000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +10000 |
| Noah Gragson | +10000 |
| AJ Allmendinger | +10000 |
| Austin Dillon | +20000 |
| Justin Haley | +20000 |
| Aric Almirola | +20000 |
| Harrison Burton | +30000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | +30000 |
| Michael McDowell | +30000 |
| Todd Gilliland | +50000 |
| Corey Lajoie | +50000 |
| Cody Ware | +50000 |
| Ty Dillon | +50000 |
| BJ McLeod | +50000 |
All bettors love the hope of an extreme dark horse cashing a 100-1 ticket or greater. However, the harsh reality is that these types of bets rarely pay off in the championship category. These bets are much better suited for a single superspeedway type of event as opposed to a Cup Series Champion. However if I had to take a stab at the drivers in this absurd value range to potentially surprise onlookers this season, AJ Allmendinger would easily be my pick from this group of drivers. Allmendinger spent 10 years racing at the Cup Series level in inferior equipment and arguably gets the best opportunity of his career in his return with Kaulig Racing in a car that is designed to eliminate the inferior qualities of years past. Allmendinger already proved he has the talent to get the job done with his surprise win at the Indianapolis road course in 2021. In 18 starts for Kaulig Racing in the Cup Series last year, Allmendinger produced finishes of 9th or better in 7 of his last 10 races. Everyone knows that Allmendinger is going to be a threat at the road courses this year and all that is needed is another win to lock a driver into the playoffs. If Allmendinger can make the show, he could be a driver that really surprises people down the stretch!
