2022 Season Finale 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Championship Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Sunday November 6th, 2022. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Phoenix Raceway
TV: NBC

On Sunday, NASCAR’s incredible 2022 campaign will conclude at Phoenix Raceway in the Season Finale 500. Through 35 races, the Cup Series has produced a record tying 19 different winners. We have seen breakout stories among drivers, among organizations, and it has all been possible thanks to the Next Gen Car which has provoked unprecedented parity at NASCAR’s top division. The competition has been razor thin which has produced incredible moments which we saw last week with Ross Chastain’s miracle at Martinsville. The “video game” move earned Chastain the opportunity to be the final driver in the Championship 4 and those 4 drivers will have the opportunity to race for a championship on Sunday in arguably the most competitive season in NASCAR history.

If you don’t already know, the Championship 4 will consist of Chastain, Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, and last week’s winner Christopher Bell who kept his championship hopes alive for the 2nd time this year by winning in a must-win scenario. In that group of drivers, Elliott and Logano are the only former Cup Series Champions and have been the more consistent front-runners throughout the season. In fact, Elliott leads the Cup Series with 5 victories on the season and also won the regular season title which helped his playoff journey. However if we have learned anything from this 2022 campaign, it’s that nothing is guaranteed in a single-race format with this new car and that should provide exciting racing yet again going into Sunday’s finale.

While the championship drivers will justifiably get the bulk of the attention this weekend, there are absolutely no guarantees that a championship winner will be victorious this weekend especially with this Next Gen Car. Back in the spring, Chase Briscoe delivered the first big “upset” of the season when he won the Ruoff Mortgage 500k at Phoenix in relatively dominating fashion. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of another upset this Sunday. Earlier today, Joey Logano silenced some of the upset noise by capturing the pole with a lap of 134.389mph which was nearly a half-second better than the pace witnessed back in the spring. However, Logano was followed closely by surprising names like Harrison Burton, Cole Custer, and Ty Gibbs who were among top 10 qualifiers. Therefore, we must consider everyone as we determine the best betting options for the last race of the season!

Phoenix Quick Notes

• Kevin Harvick has the most all-time wins (9) at Phoenix Raceway
• Other former winners among active drivers include Kyle Busch (3), Denny Hamlin (2), Joey Logano (2), Chase Elliott (1), Kyle Larson (1), Chase Briscoe (1), and Martin Truex Jr (1)
• In the last 7 races at Phoenix, Joey Logano has the best average finishing position (6.3) and highest average driver rating (112.3).
• Christopher Bell’s best career finish at Phoenix is 9th in 5 career starts
• Ross Chastain’s best career finish at Phoenix is 2nd which occurred earlier this year
• Denny Hamlin has finished in the top 5 in 16 of 34 career starts at Phoenix
• Aric Almirola’s career average finish at Phoenix is 14.1 which is a personal best among traditional ovals
• Alex Bowman has just one top 10 finish in 14 career starts at Phoenix and a 23.1 average finishing position
• Michael McDowell’s 30.8 average finishing positions at Phoenix is the worst among active drivers with more than 5 career starts at Phoenix
• The race winner has started inside the top 10 in 9 of the last 10 races at Phoenix
• The average number of cautions over the last 10 races at Phoenix is 7.7

Loop Data

For those that have followed my handicapping through the years, I preach that some historical trends are more reliable than others depending on the track. However, I would also add that historical trends are less valuable than ever with the Next Gen Car but the data is still useful if you know how to analyze it. On top of historical trends, my handicapping also takes into account in-season performance trends and though that has also been difficult with the Next Gen Car; I believe we can look at performance trends from similar layouts this season to provide a baseline of expectations going into Sunday. As stated earlier, a lot has changed since the Cup Series visited Phoenix back in the spring. As a result, I have compiled loop data stats from Phoenix, both Richmond races, and Loudon which I believe are the best comparable venues. The data below shows how drivers have performed over those 4 races and are merely one piece of the overall handicapping puzzle.

Data reflects races from Phoenix, Richmond (2), and Loudon

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	113.8	11.5	5.0	3.5	6.8	43	87	55	1413
Chase Elliott	109.5	14.8	5.8	8.0	7.0	57	85	64	1413
Martin Truex Jr	104.1	8.3	7.0	12.5	9.3	8	97	252	1320
Ryan Blaney	103.7	5.8	9.3	9.8	8.3	31	86	272	1412
Joey Logano	101.3	12.5	5.3	13.8	6.5	2	57	252	1411
Denny Hamlin	99.0	8.0	11.3	6.0	9.8	57	57	27	1413
Christopher Bell	97.0	9.8	15.0	8.8	12.0	44	84	105	1411
William Byron	95.3	3.8	11.8	10.8	8.8	-28	57	134	1413
Ross Chastain	91.3	11.3	8.5	11.8	10.3	-10	46	80	1410
Kyle Larson	89.9	9.3	5.8	16.8	9.5	7	72	13	1338
Kyle Busch	88.0	15.0	11.0	9.3	11.3	40	29	1	1413
Chase Briscoe	85.7	13.5	15.3	12.5	13.5	-17	56	107	1409
Chris Buescher	81.9	19.5	11.5	11.3	14.3	-9	45	0	1412
Aric Almirola	76.3	13.5	12.3	18.0	15.5	-15	43	0	1392
Brad Keselowski	74.7	13.5	17.8	14.5	15.8	-17	20	0	1411
Tyler Reddick	72.4	16.8	18.5	16.8	17.3	63	26	0	1406
Bubba Wallace	70.0	17.8	18.8	16.0	18.0	18	21	0	1408
Daniel Suarez	66.0	20.0	16.0	13.3	18.8	10	15	0	1411
Austin Dillon	65.8	20.0	17.8	17.5	18.8	-11	26	0	1410
Austin Cindric	65.1	22.3	17.3	17.3	18.3	18	10	0	1410
Cole Custer	64.5	16.8	20.5	22.8	19.3	-83	16	2	1407
Alex Bowman	63.6	17.3	22.5	19.3	20.0	30	42	0	1114
Erik Jones	56.6	12.5	18.8	25.5	20.8	-39	9	0	1249
A.J. Allmendinger	53.5	25.0	24.3	21.0	23.7	-6	3	0	1008
Ty Dillon	52.0	27.0	22.3	22.3	23.3	4	2	0	1113
Harrison Burton	51.7	25.5	25.0	24.5	23.3	-23	6	3	1405
Justin Haley	50.5	29.0	24.0	21.8	24.8	-6	12	0	1406
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	49.1	28.0	26.5	25.0	24.3	-7	22	6	1404
Todd Gilliland	48.6	24.3	23.8	24.0	25.0	-32	2	0	1406
Michael McDowell	39.2	23.8	29.8	28.5	29.0	-35	36	0	1399
Corey LaJoie	36.4	28.3	32.5	31.8	31.3	-8	1	0	922
Landon Cassill	33.8	26.3	32.3	30.7	32.0	-26	1	0	1093
Cody Ware	30.6	32.3	32.8	32.8	32.8	-4	1	0	1236
B.J. McLeod	26.1	34.0	35.0	34.0	34.5	-12	0	0	1086

Practice Observations

Before qualifying earlier today, Cup Series’ teams had a rare full practice session on Friday in preparation for this championship finale. At the end of the 50 minute session, Ross Chastain was the fastest man in practice with a lap of 133.240mph. Obviously, Chastain was not able to backup the fast lap in practice considering the #1 team posted an uninspiring 25th place qualifying effort. However, I will say that Chastain had much better race speed and I would expect them to find their way to the front on Sunday. In terms of race speed, I thought Ryan Blaney was easily the best car in practice. FWIW, Blaney has had several great practice sessions in recent weeks and is still searching for that first win. However, the #12 car led the charts with the fastest 5, 10, 15, and 20 lap consecutive averages

Behind Blaney, I thought Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, and Tyler Reddick were also really strong on the raw times feed. Logano and Kevin Harvick were definitely right there with the rest of the leaders as well. Perhaps slightly more surprising was the fact that Ty Gibbs and Austin Cindric were really solid on the speed charts. Gibbs won Saturday’s Xfinity Series Championship to capture his 1st win at Phoenix and while he has not been as impressive on the Cup Side; he has shown more speed this weekend. Meanwhile, Cindric is a guy that is on my betting radar because he was really good at Phoenix throughout his Xfinity Series career and I believe his ceiling far exceeds most people’s expectations.

Note: Drivers that were not trending in a positive direction in practice included all of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars, Bubba Wallace, and defending race winner Chase Briscoe.

Betting Targets

Like all championship races this weekend, I’m not enticed by the odds surrounding the championship contenders. Instead, I would much rather take a chance on a non-championship contender that has near the same probability of winning with much better betting odds. The drivers that are within those parameters include the likes of Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson. I mentioned Blaney’s speed in practice but Larson deserves attention as well as a driver with an excellent track record at Phoenix and who is still in the hunt for the owner’s championship. Meanwhile, I would say the odds around guys like Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin are also very enticing as well.

Without question, I believe the best betting opportunities will be in the realm of H2H match-ups on Sunday which has been the case for the majority of the season. In terms of sharp H2H betting targets, I believe that Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric, and Erik Jones have much higher ceilings than current betting odds suggest and those drivers appear to be better than most of the drivers paired against them in match-ups. Briscoe may be the more risky option among that group but he is still playable if you can find the right match-ups. I would also not completely overlook guys like Ty Gibbs and Cole Custer who are currently listed at really deep odds. However, I like Gibbs and Custer more as prop bet options with better ROI rather than traditional H2H formats.

Draftkings Season Finale 500 Optimal Lineup

2022 Season Finale 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Joey Logano +300 (1.25 units)
Ryan Blaney +800 (1 unit)
Kevin Harvick +1800 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +5000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Tyler Reddick -125 over Bubba Wallace (3 units)
Austin Cindric -105 over Alex Bowman (2 units)
Harrison Burton -110 over Justin Haley (2 units)
Austin Cindric +300 wins Group E (Bowman, Almirola, Buescher)(1 unit)
Chase Briscoe +800 finishes Top 3 (1 unit)
Erik Jones +500 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)
Ty Dillon +1000 finishes Top 10 (.5 unit)