2022 Crayon 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Date/Time: Saturday July 16th, 2022. 2:30PM (EST)
Where: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
TV: USA

NASCAR’s top two touring series will make a stop in Loudon this weekend for racing at the Magic Mile. The first green flag at New Hampshire Motor Speedway will wave on Saturday with the Xfinity Series’ running of the Crayon 200. In prior trips to Loudon, it has been the Christopher Bell show. Bell won in back to back events in 2018 and 2019 as a full-time Xfinity Series driver and then won his 3rd straight race when the series returned last year in a part-time start for Joe Gibbs Racing. Luckily for the competition, Christopher Bell will not be participating in Saturday’s Crayon 200 which should open the door for a first time winner considering there are not any former winners in Saturday’s field.

In many ways, Bell’s former dominance at New Hampshire Motor Speedway will likely shift expectations to Xfinity Series standout Ty Gibbs. Gibbs has basically the same core team that won 3 straight races with Bell at New Hampshire and Gibbs has firmly established himself as the driver to beat in the series with 4 victories already this season. While Gibbs definitely deserves a ton of respect, I am not personally convinced he will be the man to beat on Saturday. In today’s on-track activities there were several drivers within striking range and it will be interesting to see how Saturday’s Crayon 200 unfolds. New Hampshire Motor Speedway has traditionally been a venue that produces long green flag runs but Saturday’s shortened 200 mile event could be more of a battle of restarts and track position.

Joining the competition this week will be Cup Series’ standout William Byron who will be making his 2nd Xfinity Series start of the season in the #88 car for J.R. Motorsports. Byron finished 2nd in his only other start of the season back at Texas and is deservingly being considered an overall favorite based on current betting odds. The good news for bettors is that Gibbs and Byron are getting the majority of the betting attention yielding decent value for the rest of the field. Therefore if we don’t believe that Gibbs or Byron are quite as dominant as odds suggest, we can get some pretty good value for pivoting against tomorrow’s top favorites. Either way, I think there will be some solid betting opportunities for the Crayon 200 and New Hampshire has traditionally been a good handicapping venue; therefore I am hopeful that we can produce the results we desire.

Practice and Qualifying Notes

In qualifying this afternoon, Josh Berry won the pole for the Crayon 200 with a fast lap of 127.163 mph. On his qualifying lap, Berry actually scraped the wall coming out of turn 2 but it was not enough to hurt his lap. The #8 car did have minor damage but the team will not be forced into changes that will cause them to have to forfeit their starting position. Behind Berry, Daniel Hemric, Justin Allgaier, Ty Gibbs, and Landon Cassill rounded out the top 5 starting spots. The Kaulig Racing cars of Hemric, Cassill, and Allmendinger (7th) were perhaps the slight surprise stories in qualifying. The Kaulig Racing cars struggled in race trim during the earlier practice but impressed in their single lap qualifying runs.

Personally, I think bettors should pay close attention to the practice results in race trim opposed to qualifying results. While track position is extremely important because passing can be difficult, the handling of these cars can change significantly from the start to the finish of a green flag run. Therefore, the handling characteristics of the car will definitely become vulnerable once laps start being compiled. With that being said, I would not be surprised if some of the Kaulig Racing struggles from race trim in practice return after 15-20 laps into Saturday’s Crayon 200 and that is reason to keep them on your radar for potential fades in match-ups.

Strictly from a practice standpoint, William Byron was clearly the guy to beat when the dust settled on the brief practice session on Friday. Byron led nearly every category with the fastest overall average and fastest 10, 15, 20, and 25 lap averages. The only category that Byron did not lead was the fastest 5 lap average which was held by Ty Gibbs. Needless to say, Gibbs and Byron are deserving of their status as race favorites and perhaps Byron’s odds may get even better after a mediocre 10th place qualifying effort. Other drivers that looked really solid in terms of race speed included the likes of Josh Berry, Sam Mayer, and Ryan Sieg who clearly exceeded expectations.

Betting Targets

Before I start diving into my targets and predictions, let me first make one quick observation. Justin Allgaier never shows up on the practice sheets as a promising race threat but is still among the top Xfinity Series’ drivers in the sport. Furthermore, Allgaier excels on the flatter surfaces and typically has long-run speed that is ideal for a place like New Hampshire. Allgaier has finished 3rd and 2nd in his last two starts at Loudon and remains a dark horse for Saturday’s Crayon 200 despite my personal opinion in that his odds should be a little better.

In terms of betting targets, I could almost lock-in William Byron and Josh Berry for my picks to win the race and like my chances. I think Berry is going to be a real threat. New Hampshire is a perfect venue for Berry’s driving style and Byron just seemed to have all the speed in practice. If Byron’s 10th place qualifying effort is scaring bettors, I would also say that Byron was the first car on the track to qualify when the track temp was hottest. Therefore, I don’t have many major concerns from the qualifying results. If you want pivot options as potential sleepers for the outright win, I would throw Allgaier and Bayne into the mix if things get crazy.

In terms of H2H bets and fantasy options, Myatt Snider and Derek Griffith are a few low salary options starting outside the top 20 that I believe have legitimate top 15 upside. Snider finished 7th in his only Loudon start last year and while he is not in the equipment that he was in last year; he still is one of those drivers starting in the back that should move forward to yield fantasy value. For H2H options, I really like sleeper options like Ryan Sieg and Ty Dillon to produce value in lower-tier match-ups. Dillon has some incentive after getting released from Richard Petty Motorsports on Friday and has decent equipment with the #48 team. Meanwhile, Sieg has quietly produced week after week results despite consistently being paired against bottom-tier drivers. I think both drivers will have upside in the form of H2H options on Saturday.

Draftkings Crayon 200 Optimal Lineup

2022 Crayon 200 Race Picks

*Final*

William Byron +350 (1 unit)
Josh Berry +700 (1 unit)

H2H Match-ups and Props

Josh Berry -115 over Justin Allgaier (2 units)
Daniel Hemric -145 over Austin Hill (2 units)
Ty Dillon +155 over Riley Herbst (2 units)
Ryan Sieg -160 over Anthony Alfredo (1 unit)