2022 All-Star Race Preview
NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Date/Time: Sunday May 22nd, 2022. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: FS1
One of NASCAR’s most prestigious events will take place tonight at Texas Motor Speedway with the 38th running of the All-Star Race. Though I will not be releasing official betting picks tonight because I believe the style and format of this race is unfavorable to bettors, I would still like to outline some predictions and thoughts for those bettors looking for additional action. Therefore, let’s go over everything that should be considered for tonight’s All-Star Race.
First and foremost, the format for tonight’s All-Star Race has changed yet again. It seems that NASCAR makes changes to the format every year to optimize the racing performance or produce additional angles that could impact the outcome. The 2022 All-Star Race will feature 125 laps of racing that is broken down into 4 unique stages. Stages 1-3 will feature 25 lap shootouts and the winner from each of those stages will start in the top 3 positions in the final stage. Between stages 2 and 3, teams will be required to make a mandatory 4-tire change which will determine the grid for the 3rd stage.
There are some added incentives to this pit-stop which includes that the team with the fastest pit-in/pit-out time will earn the Pit Crew Award which yields the 4th starting spot in the final stage. The rest of the grid (positions 5-24) for the final stage will be determined by their natural finishing order following stage 3. The final stage will be a 50 lap shootout with the potential for a competition caution occurring halfway if no natural cautions have occurred between laps 15-25. There are some other fine print details that I am leaving out in effort to avoid confusion. With that being said, this format once again favors restarts, chaos, and short-run sprints for the million dollar prize.
Saturday Observations
Kyle Busch won the pole for tonight’s All-Star Race on Saturday in a bracket style format that had heavy emphasis on pit-stops and single lap qualifying runs. Busch beat out Ryan Blaney and the #12 team who will start 2nd in tonight’s main event. However, I would not put too much emphasis on starting positions with tonight’s limited 24-car field and multiple restart opportunities. Additionally, drivers like Alex Bowman, Denny Hamlin, and Chase Elliott all had poor qualifying efforts despite showing good speed in Friday’s practice. Some of those poor qualifying efforts were due to the pit-stop narrative that I mentioned above meaning starting positions can be given minimal credit towards deciding the drivers that should battle for the victory.
In terms of practice, the defending winner of the All-Star Race and defending series champion Kyle Larson was the driver that led all of the fast lap categories in practice. Larson posted the best 10-lap average and best overall average of the session. Meanwhile, I thought the Toyotas from the JGR alliance also showed really good speed which replicates what we saw last week at Kansas. Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, and Kyle Busch were once again really fast on the speed charts. Perhaps most notably and something I am keeping an eye on for next week’s Coca Cola 600 is the fact that the Ford teams continue to struggle. All of the Ford manufacturers were down on the charts and appears to be having some real performance concerns.
All-Star Open
There are 16 drivers that are fighting for a chance to get into the All-Star Race tonight. The All-Star Open will provide 50 laps of racing broken down into 3 stages (20/20/10) with the winner from each stage advancing to the All-Star Race. In my opinion, tonight’s All-Star Open is lacking any potential surprise stories or dark horses for tonight’s All-Star Race outside of Tyler Reddick. Reddick won Saturday’s SRS Distribution 250 in the Xfinity Series and also flexed his muscles during practice for the All-Star Open teams. Reddick was clearly the fastest guy in the field in nearly every category and I would believe is a shoe-in for advancing barring disaster. There are some interesting props out there around the All-Star Open and I would encourage plays towards Reddick advancing.
Other drivers that I believe warrant a look in the value department include Erik Jones and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Both Jones and Stenhouse have shown speed at the intermediate tracks this season. In fact, Stenhouse has produced several quality performances over the last two weeks at Darlington and Kansas. As a result, I think Jones and Stenhouse have positive performance trends that should give them an opportunity to race their way into tonight’s feature event. Another driver potentially worth consideration as well includes Daniel Suarez. The TrackHouse Racing cars have shown really good speed this year though most of the success has been with Ross Chastain. However, Suarez has shown the speed but rarely got the finishes to match. If the #99 team can put together a complete effort, they may be a factor as well.
All-Star Race Prediction
For tonight’s All-Star Race, again I would preface any comments with another reminder that the reason I avoid betting this event, every year, is because the format is not favorable to bettors and the odds never encompass the risk of the format. With that being said, I do believe we are seeing a performance trend emerge with the JGR Toyotas. It appeared Hendrick Motorsports was the best organization out of the gates this season but the Toyotas have the momentum. Following last week’s win at Kansas, Kurt Busch deserves consideration for a 2nd straight week. Kurt Busch is a nice pivot, in terms of betting odds, from the group of favorites. In fact, Busch is getting as high as 20-1 odds at some online shops. While I think Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin are your more probable options from the Toyota camp, I would focus on betting value if you are betting on tonight’s event.
Regardless of organizational performance trends, Kyle Larson remains the most talented guy in the Cup Series at least that is my opinion. Larson just gets the most out of his cars on a weekly basis and really dominated this event last year. Larson is an easy but justifiable pick for tonight’s All-Star Race for anyone wanting to sacrifice value. Personally, I am gravitating towards Ross Chastain as tonight’s biggest threat to Larson tonight aside from Kyle Busch. I believe Chastain has shown the speed this year with TrackHouse Racing and will likely benefit from the short-run format. At 10-1 odds, Chastain has some of the best value among tonight’s favorites and showed all the indicators of a fast #1 car during Saturday’s on-track activities. Therefore, I have the following line-up as my mock top 5 for tonight’s All-Star Race
2022 All-Star Race Top 5 Prediction
- #1 – Ross Chastain
- #2 – Kyle Larson
- #3 – Kyle Busch
- #4 – Chase Elliott
- #5 – Kurt Busch
