2021 Season Finale 500 Race Picks
- Updated: November 7, 2021
Sunday November 7th, 3:30PM (EST) at Phoenix Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
Thirty-six weeks of racing will culminate in the Valley of the Sun for the Season Finale 500 to determine the Cup Series Championship. The drivers that have earned the right to battle for a championship include the reigning Cup Series Champion Chase Elliott, the season’s dominant force in Kyle Larson, former champion Martin Truex, and possibly the greatest driver to never win a championship in the 17 year veteran Denny Hamlin. On Sunday, Phoenix Raceway will provide a thrilling end to the NASCAR season and provide bettors one final opportunity to cash a winning ticket!
To kick things off, I want to forewarn the audience that I will keep a lot of focus around the championship competitors in this preview. While I understand the championship is only one component to Sunday’s race especially from a betting standpoint, I would also point out that a championship 4 competitor has won every season finale since this format was implemented in 2014. Therefore, history tells us that there is a strong likelihood that Sunday’s winner will be decided between the likes of Elliott, Larson, Truex, and Hamlin. Obviously history is not guaranteed to repeat and we will eventually discuss some dark horse options a bit later.
For now, I would point out the historical trends from the championship competitors which are listed below. As you will notice, Kyle Larson leads the championship competitors with a 9.7 average finishing position over the last 10 races at Phoenix. Honestly, I was slightly surprised to see Larson in the lead of this particular category because he is the only championship driver without a win at Phoenix. Hamlin is a two-time Phoenix winner, Elliott is the defending winner of the Season Finale 500 and reigning champion, and Truex scored his 1st Phoenix victory back in the spring in the Instacart 500. Needless to say, all of these drivers have the potential to get the job done.
*Last 10 races at Phoenix Raceway among championship contenders
| Driver | Avg. | 16 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 9.7 | 3 | 2 | 40 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 7 | |
| Denny Hamlin | 10.2 | 7 | 10 | 35 | 4 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 4 | 3 |
| Chase Elliott | 11.5 | 9 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 14 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 12.4 | 40 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 10 | 1 |
Loop Data
As we move into other performance metrics, I wanted to give our audience two different viewpoints this week. Since Phoenix Raceway is a unique layout, there is an art to getting around Phoenix successfully. Kevin Harvick has mastered that art better than any driver in history with 9 career victories at Phoenix. Needless to say, this is one of those tracks where the driver can make a huge difference compared to outright equipment speed. As a result, I have put together loop data trends for the last 5 races at Phoenix and then provided an additional viewpoint that includes 2021 performance with the 750 horsepower rules package at similar layouts that include Phoenix (spring), Loudon, both Richmond races, and most recently Martinsville. I believe both of these viewpoints provide a strong foundation of expectations going into Sunday.
In terms of the last 5 races at Phoenix Raceway (top graph), Joey Logano pulls in the top spot with a 119.2 average rating. Logano is a two-time Phoenix winner that has posted finishes of 1st, 3rd, and 2nd in his last 3 starts in the Valley of the Sun. Kyle Busch clocks-in at the #2 spot with an impressive 113.2 average rating and Rowdy owns a long rich history at Phoenix which includes 3 victories and top 3 results in 8 of the last 11 races. Behind the top two, there is a large group of drivers with triple digit average ratings over the last 5 events which is slightly surprising however they all consist of the top drivers in the sport as well so perhaps it is not very surprising at the end of the day.
In the bottom graph which attempts to reflect in-season performance trends on similar layouts, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex stand out as the top two talents. Hamlin has been extremely consistent with the 750hp package this season and has produced finishes of 3rd or better in both Richmond races and the spring Phoenix race. Meanwhile, Truex has turned into the sports’ best short-track talent. In the last 3 years, Truex has secured 8 of his 12 victories on the shorter layouts that are 1-mile or less in length. Additionally in the in-season analysis, I would point to disappointing results for the likes of Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. We are accustomed to both drivers being at the top of our statistical trends but both drivers/teams have struggled with the low-downforce package.
*Last 5 races at Phoenix Raceway
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano | 119.3 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 72 | 138 | 421 | 1564 |
| Kyle Busch | 113.2 | 6.0 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 34 | 164 | 246 | 1563 |
| Denny Hamlin | 112.5 | 3.2 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 6 | 191 | 182 | 1564 |
| Kevin Harvick | 107.1 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 38 | 91 | 67 | 1564 |
| Chase Elliott | 105.1 | 3.2 | 10.4 | 13.2 | 11.8 | 58 | 139 | 246 | 1417 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 104.5 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 40 | 138 | 75 | 1530 |
| Brad Keselowski | 102.0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 20 | 101 | 120 | 1563 |
| Ryan Blaney | 100.2 | 5.8 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 10.6 | 10 | 62 | 130 | 1313 |
| Kyle Larson | 97.0 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 9.8 | 72 | 46 | 3 | 1252 |
| Kurt Busch | 86.9 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 10.2 | 11.8 | -7 | 4 | 8 | 1564 |
| Aric Almirola | 86.4 | 14.6 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 47 | 9 | 33 | 1561 |
| William Byron | 83.1 | 15.4 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 23 | 16 | 0 | 1561 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 80.9 | 16.4 | 15.0 | 15.2 | 13.4 | -10 | 16 | 1 | 1560 |
| Christopher Bell | 75.8 | 12.0 | 17.3 | 16.7 | 15.7 | -16 | 19 | 0 | 939 |
| Alex Bowman | 71.7 | 11.0 | 21.0 | 20.2 | 17.6 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 1440 |
| Cole Custer | 68.9 | 18.3 | 16.3 | 22.7 | 17.3 | -12 | 24 | 0 | 934 |
| Erik Jones | 68.7 | 11.6 | 20.6 | 21.2 | 18.2 | -45 | 7 | 0 | 1552 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 68.6 | 18.6 | 17.2 | 18.6 | 18.6 | -12 | 4 | 2 | 1561 |
| Tyler Reddick | 68.3 | 24.3 | 12.0 | 27.0 | 17.3 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 885 |
| Ryan Newman | 64.3 | 19.0 | 17.8 | 20.5 | 19.5 | -25 | 9 | 0 | 1245 |
| Bubba Wallace | 59.3 | 24.2 | 26.2 | 19.4 | 22.4 | -36 | 7 | 4 | 1558 |
| Austin Dillon | 59.3 | 20.4 | 24.0 | 23.2 | 21.4 | -37 | 20 | 0 | 1372 |
| Chris Buescher | 59.1 | 22.0 | 21.4 | 17.4 | 22.0 | -37 | 1 | 1 | 1562 |
| Daniel Suarez | 54.5 | 26.2 | 24.6 | 22.2 | 24.6 | -17 | 20 | 0 | 1557 |
| Ross Chastain | 49.8 | 27.8 | 23.5 | 24.3 | 24.5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1243 |
| Michael McDowell | 47.6 | 23.0 | 24.2 | 25.6 | 26.6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1402 |
| Ryan Preece | 46.9 | 21.0 | 25.2 | 27.6 | 26.8 | -18 | 1 | 0 | 1462 |
| Corey LaJoie | 45.1 | 28.8 | 24.0 | 30.6 | 27.8 | -63 | 10 | 12 | 1446 |
| James Davison | 33.4 | 37.0 | 33.0 | 33.0 | 33.5 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 605 |
| Cody Ware | 30.4 | 32.5 | 35.5 | 34.0 | 34.5 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 401 |
| Garrett Smithley | 30.2 | 36.0 | 34.8 | 34.3 | 34.8 | -10 | 1 | 0 | 1046 |
| Quin Houff | 30.2 | 34.5 | 34.3 | 33.8 | 34.5 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 964 |
| Joey Gase | 29.9 | 37.3 | 33.3 | 33.0 | 34.7 | -4 | 2 | 0 | 785 |
| Josh Bilicki | 28.0 | 37.0 | 35.5 | 35.0 | 36.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 554 |
| Timmy Hill | 24.0 | 36.0 | 38.0 | 37.3 | 38.0 | -5 | 2 | 0 | 354 |
*2021 races at Phoenix, Richmond (x2), Loudon, and Martinsville
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 117.4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 61 | 259 | 541 | 1906 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 113.9 | 3.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 8.2 | 20 | 194 | 260 | 1906 |
| Joey Logano | 110.2 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 10 | 83 | 201 | 1906 |
| Brad Keselowski | 106.2 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 10 | 70 | 97 | 1905 |
| Chase Elliott | 104.1 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 38 | 151 | 400 | 1905 |
| Christopher Bell | 102.8 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 10 | 119 | 10 | 1906 |
| Kevin Harvick | 98.2 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 8.2 | -39 | 72 | 66 | 1903 |
| Ryan Blaney | 96.8 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 8.8 | -17 | 51 | 99 | 1905 |
| Alex Bowman | 96.1 | 15.0 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 75 | 119 | 19 | 1905 |
| Aric Almirola | 93.7 | 21.6 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 64 | 41 | 25 | 1905 |
| Kyle Larson | 92.8 | 4.0 | 14.0 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 70 | 134 | 86 | 1904 |
| William Byron | 89.2 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 26 | 39 | 0 | 1903 |
| Kyle Busch | 86.0 | 8.0 | 17.8 | 16.2 | 15.6 | 22 | 33 | 46 | 1620 |
| Ross Chastain | 78.7 | 18.6 | 15.0 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 7 | 33 | 7 | 1902 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 77.1 | 19.8 | 16.2 | 13.4 | 15.6 | 25 | 21 | 20 | 1904 |
| Austin Dillon | 76.9 | 14.0 | 19.4 | 13.6 | 15.8 | 25 | 16 | 6 | 1904 |
| Kurt Busch | 73.2 | 9.4 | 18.2 | 17.6 | 17.2 | -15 | 30 | 6 | 1545 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 72.8 | 20.4 | 16.8 | 17.2 | 16.2 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 1902 |
| Tyler Reddick | 72.5 | 14.6 | 15.0 | 19.0 | 15.4 | -32 | 11 | 0 | 1900 |
| Erik Jones | 64.2 | 25.4 | 20.0 | 17.4 | 19.8 | -22 | 1 | 0 | 1901 |
| Chase Briscoe | 59.4 | 23.8 | 20.6 | 21.8 | 20.6 | -37 | 1 | 0 | 1900 |
| Cole Custer | 59.0 | 22.2 | 20.8 | 22.6 | 20.6 | -18 | 15 | 0 | 1897 |
| Bubba Wallace | 58.5 | 20.4 | 21.6 | 25.0 | 20.8 | 6 | 24 | 4 | 1890 |
| Chris Buescher | 57.6 | 15.8 | 23.0 | 21.0 | 22.6 | -61 | 5 | 0 | 1896 |
| Daniel Suarez | 57.6 | 25.4 | 19.2 | 20.4 | 22.2 | 39 | 12 | 0 | 1899 |
| Corey LaJoie | 52.0 | 29.8 | 18.2 | 24.2 | 24.0 | -4 | 1 | 12 | 1897 |
| Ryan Newman | 51.2 | 23.4 | 25.6 | 26.8 | 25.8 | -34 | 19 | 0 | 1887 |
| Michael McDowell | 49.6 | 19.4 | 27.0 | 25.8 | 25.4 | -51 | 5 | 0 | 1894 |
| Ryan Preece | 49.0 | 22.2 | 28.6 | 27.6 | 26.8 | 13 | 17 | 0 | 1809 |
| Anthony Alfredo | 39.7 | 29.2 | 31.4 | 29.2 | 30.6 | -29 | 0 | 0 | 1664 |
| B.J. McLeod | 38.5 | 31.8 | 30.4 | 30.2 | 29.8 | -56 | 0 | 0 | 1879 |
| Justin Haley | 37.9 | 31.4 | 28.8 | 29.6 | 30.2 | -46 | 0 | 0 | 1492 |
| Cody Ware | 32.0 | 32.3 | 34.5 | 33.3 | 34.0 | -16 | 3 | 0 | 1266 |
| Quin Houff | 30.5 | 34.8 | 34.2 | 34.0 | 34.0 | -24 | 0 | 0 | 1751 |
| Garrett Smithley | 30.3 | 35.4 | 33.4 | 33.2 | 33.6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1851 |
| Josh Bilicki | 29.4 | 33.6 | 34.0 | 35.4 | 34.4 | -18 | 0 | 0 | 1790 |
Friday’s Practice
In preparation for Sunday’s finale, Cup Series drivers and teams had the rare luxury of a solo practice on Friday. At the end of the 50 minute session, Brad Keselowski posted the fastest time with a lap of 135.384mph. While Keselowski earned the fastest time of the day, bettors should not focus on single lap speed. Phoenix Raceway favors long-run speed and long runs are typical with racing at Phoenix. From an observational standpoint, I thought the Hendrick Motorsports cars of Larson and Elliott fired off well with better short-run speed. However, I was really impressed with the long run pace from Martin Truex. Truex’s car seemingly got better after 15-20 laps which is similar to what we witnessed in the spring race.
Outside of the championship drivers, Ryan Blaney was most impressive in practice. Granted conditions will be different on Sunday, Blaney was still the best overall car in Friday’s session. I would also give notable mentions to the likes of Aric Almirola and Bubba Wallace who appeared to exceed expectations. On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, and William Byron were among the popular names that seemingly struggled. Bell was a driver that I had on my radar this week in terms of H2H bets. However, the #20 team completely missed the mark in the only session of the weekend and it will be interesting to see if they can get the car better for Sunday.
Betting Targets
Based on all of the information I have shared and observed this week, I am going to make an unpopular yet sharp choice to state Martin Truex Jr and Chase Elliott are the drivers to beat going into Sunday’s Season Finale 500. I think both drivers have been excellent under the 750hp rules package and have also been extremely good at Phoenix in recent races. I know Larson is the popular pick and in many ways Larson’s 9 victories are worthy of the championship. However, nothing matters except what happens on Sunday and I believe the combination of Truex/Elliott has the best chance to get the job done.
Aside from the championship, I do have a couple of sleepers on my radar in the likes of Ryan Blaney and Alex Bowman. For whatever reason, Bowman continues to be listed as an intermediate range driver despite his 4 victories this season. Bowman has played the spoiler role on several occasions this year and 3 of his victories have come with the 750hp rules package. On the heels of last week’s win at Martinsville and a solid practice on Friday, I have the #48 on my sleeper list and will favor him in H2H match-ups as well. Lastly, Ryan Blaney is my favorite sleeper option this week in all formats. As I mentioned earlier, I thought Blaney was the best car in Friday’s practices and he checks off all the handicapping boxes to fit the narrative. With all the focus on the championship 4, Blaney can be a legitimate target in all formats.
Draftkings Season Finale 500 Optimal Lineup
2021 Season Finale 500 Race Picks
*Final*
Chase Elliott +350 (1 unit)Martin Truex Jr +600 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1600 (.5 unit)
Kyle Busch +1800 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-ups and Props
Martin Truex Jr +155 over Kyle Larson (2 units)Ryan Blaney -110 over William Byron (2 units)
Kevin Harvick -160 finishes Top 10 (2 units)
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