2021 Dead on Tools 250 Race Picks
- Updated: October 29, 2021
Saturday October 30th, 6:00PM (EST) at Martinsville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
NASCAR will feature a double header on Saturday afternoon at Martinsville Speedway which will ultimately decide the drivers that will fight for a championship next week at Phoenix. After a 3 week hiatus, the Camping World Truck Series will kick off the racing action early Saturday afternoon before turning the spotlight over to the Xfinity Series with the running of the Dead on Tools 250. Interestingly, the Xfinity Series’ playoff battle is still wide open stemming from John Hunter Nemechek and Ty Gibbs’ playoff stealing victories over the last two weeks. As a result, all 4 championship spots will be up for grabs on Saturday.
For those wondering, I decided to forgo betting on the Camping World Truck Series’ United Rentals 200 early Saturday. I have rarely opted out of betting races this season but chose to bypass the Truck Series’ race at Talladega a few weeks ago which went to an unlikely winner in Tate Fogleman. While I do not expect a “surprise” winner in Saturday’s United Rentals 200, I don’t think that particular race provides an advantage for bettors. The Truck Series has not competed on any tracks that even compare to Martinsville this season and I just don’t believe we will have the edge that I expect when handicapping races. As a result, I have made the rare choice to skip Saturday’s opening race from a betting standpoint.
Unlike the Truck Series, the Xfinity Series competed at Martinsville via the Cookout 250 back in April. If you remember that race, it was one of the highlights of the season which featured Josh Berry earning his 1st career victory. The former late model driver really shocked the racing world with that victory back in April and added another stamp of approval with a victory at Las Vegas which earned him a full-time ride with J.R. Motorsports in 2022. Berry will be in action again on Saturday but he will not be behind the wheel for J.R. Motorsports. Instead, Berry will be piloting the #31 car for Jordan Anderson Racing which likely limits his chances for a repeat.
Betting Targets
The Xfinity Series just started competing at Martinsville in 2020 for the first time in 14 years. Therefore, the majority of the competitors in Saturday’s race have just 1-2 starts at Martinsville. Noah Gragson is the only driver to finish in the top 5 in each of the last two Martinsville races in the Xfinity Series. Gragson has posted finishes of 2nd and 3rd with a lucrative 120 average rating between both events. In each race, Gragson has captured stage victories and led several laps. Therefore, I have Gragson high on my radar this week as one of the drivers that should run well and can be targeted in all formats.
AJ Allmendinger, Ty Gibbs, and Harrison Burton are additional considerations. Burton won the 2020 Dead on Tools 250 and is among just two former winners in Saturday’s field. Personally, I have not seen enough from Burton during the 2021 season to make a legitimate argument for his chances this weekend other than noting he usually runs well on the smaller layouts. For Ty Gibbs, he has the privilege of piloting the #54 car again this week which seems to be winning everything. Gibbs captured his 4th victory of the season last week and continues to be the brightest young talent we have seen in the modern era. Following a 4th place finish in his 1st Martinsville start in April, Gibbs should be in contention if he takes another step forward. Meanwhile, Allmendinger has more experience than anyone in the field at Martinsville stemming from his former Cup Series experience. While Allmendinger has earned some poor finishes, historically he has performed well at Martinsville and the heavy braking seems to suit his driving style. I’m staying away from Allmendinger on the outright victory but would not be surprised to see him run well.
Intermediate drivers that could yield H2H or fantasy value include the likes of Brett Moffitt, Preston Pardus, and Josh Berry. Berry’s value is strictly related to fantasy as he will be starting in the 29th position but I would warn everyone that he is far from a sure thing. The #31 team has posted a few DNF’s this season and it is important to note that Berry’s ceiling is more limited with the inferior equipment. Preston Pardus is a guy that has impressed consistently on the road courses this season and will be starting deep in the field. I like Pardus in all formats if you can find some bottom-tier match-ups. Meanwhile, Brett Moffitt has been one of my favorite H2H targets in recent weeks among the intermediate range of options. Moffitt continues to produce weekly top 10 potential and is usually paired against drivers that do not have that same ceiling. Until we see any change, Moffitt remains a betting target.
Draftkings Dead on Tools 250 Optimal Lineup
2021 Dead on Tools 250 Race Picks
*Final*
AJ Allmendinger +800 (1 unit)Noah Gragson +950 (1 unit)
Daniel Hemric +1200 (1 unit)
Match-Ups and Props
Daniel Hemric -130 over Josh Berry (3 units)Noah Gragson -115 over Harrison Burton (2 units)
Brett Moffitt -115 over Myatt Snider (2 units)
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