2021 Hollywood Casino 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 24th, 2021. 3:00PM (EST) at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Cup Series will make their 2nd and final stop of the season at Kansas Speedway on Sunday for the running of the Hollywood Casino 400. Back in May, Kyle Busch earned his 1st victory of the season with a win in the Buschy McBusch Race 400 at Kansas. Going into Sunday’s green flag, Busch is among 6 other championship contenders that are chasing Kyle Larson who secured his bid to the championship finale with a victory last week at Texas. Will another championship contender be able to secure their shot at a championship? Find out our thoughts as we breakdown betting options for the Hollywood Casino 400!

Kansas Speedway is different from last week’s venue at Texas mainly in banking. Both tracks are 1.5 mile intermediate layouts with a lot of grip that produce significant on-throttle time. Personally, I believe Texas is tricker from the driver seat whereas Kansas really favors the drivers/teams with the most raw speed. If you look through the history books, Kansas Speedway is relatively top heavy, consisting of 7 drivers that have produced 16 victories among active participants. Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Denny Hamlin are tied for the most with 3 victories. Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex, and Kyle Busch each have two victories. Meanwhile, Chase Elliott (1) is the only other active driver that has visited victory lane. Needless to say, we should not stray far away from the top drivers this week and give acute focus on the drivers that have shown the most speed on the 1.5 mile layouts this season with the 550hp rules package.

Loop Data

I did not compile additional loop data averages this week. Our readers can easily access the tables used in last week’s predictions for Texas because those averages were only slightly altered from the results in last week’s Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500. Similar to the historical trends at Kansas, this year’s loop data averages paint a clear picture that Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch have easily been the best on the 1.5 mile layouts in 2021. As mentioned earlier, Busch is the defending winner at Kansas and Larson proved yet again last week why he is the championship favorite by dominating the Round of 8 opener at Texas.

I would also point to the likes of William Byron, Brad Keselowski, and Kevin Harvick as the drivers that are trending in the right direction. All 3 drivers have solid results on the 1.5 mile speedways this year. Keselowski and Harvick finished in the top 5 back in the May race at Kansas and displayed solid speed last week at Texas. Meanwhile, William Byron was the only driver that could match some of Kyle Larson’s lap times last week. The problem with Byron, from a winning standpoint, has been consistency. He has been great at some of these 1.5 mile venues and relatively average at others. Similar to last week’s loop data breakdown, I will continue to point to the likes of Joey Logano, Cole Custer, and Martin Truex as drivers that are under-performing from an expectation standpoint with the 550hp rules package.

Betting Targets

I mentioned earlier that Kansas Speedway has historically produced top heavy results with the majority of the victories stemming from just a handful of drivers. With Kyle Larson’s recent dominance and Denny Hamlin’s two victories already in the playoffs, both drivers are undoubtedly the top two favorites in this event with Larson leading by a fairly wide margin. While I will not argue with either option, I would point out that bettors should not get too caught-up in last week’s results. Teams will be utilizing different equipment this week and it is easy to get distracted with the results from a week ago at such a similar event.

Due to the top heavy nature and recent race last week at Texas, I feel like most of the betting attention (for the outright victory) will be centered around Larson and Hamlin. However, I am seeing positive signs from some of the mild dark-horses that I believe deserve attention as well. The main drivers that fall into this category include Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick. Personally, I have stayed away from Harvick for most of the season due to the Stewart-Haas Racing struggles but the #4 team has put together some really strong performances in recent weeks. Harvick also finished in the runner-up spot back in the spring race and we could potentially take advantage of the 2021 struggles to get some extra value on Harvick this week.

Keselowski is in a similar situation shadowed by the storyline he will be leaving the #2 team at the end of the year. If you look at the prior loop data stats provided last week, Keselowski stands out as one of those drivers that have posted really good averages throughout the year yet it is largely going unnoticed. While Ryan Blaney has been the best driver from Team Penske this season especially on the 1.5 mile surfaces, Keselowski has closed the gap significantly during the 2nd half of the season.

For fantasy purposes, Ryan Preece, Alex Bowman, and Ross Chastain are ideal targets that had troubles last week that should benefit from their starting positions. I would also give some sneaky mid-value to the likes of Daniel Suarez and Tyler Reddick. Both drivers have been trending positively in recent weeks. Reddick has become one of my favorite H2H and prop bet options in recent weeks as one of the most improved drivers/teams throughout the 2nd part of the season. Meanwhile, I would also consider Keselowski and Suarez sharp H2H options given the right match-ups.

Betting Notes

For transparency, betting odds are not exactly favoring bettors this week. The reason I have mentioned the phrase “top heavy” so much is that I want to remind everyone that there is not a lot of “value” to be found. While I would love to throw out bigger plays with the season winding down, I must be realistic by stating a conservative approach is likely best and acknowledge there will likely be much better opportunities at Martinsville and Phoenix for bettors. Therefore, let’s only settle for sharp plays in the form of H2H match-ups and focus on value with our futures (win) bets.

Draftkings 2021 Hollywood Casino 400 Optimal Lineup

2021 Hollywood Casino 400 Betting Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +900 (.5 unit)
Kyle Busch +900 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1400 (.75 unit)
Kevin Harvick +1800 (.5 unit)
Brad Keselowski +2000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ryan Blaney -130 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Kevin Harvick -115 over Tyler Reddick (2 units)
Daniel Suarez -105 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Brad Keselowski +300 wins Group B (Logano, Truex, and Byron) (1 unit)