2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Race Picks
- Updated: October 16, 2021
Sunday October 17th, 2021. 2:00PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
Just 3 races remain to decide the 4 drivers that will battle for a championship at Phoenix. Last week, the ROVAL provided a dramatic close to the Round of 12 which featured early exits from the likes of Alex Bowman, William Byron, Christopher Bell, and Kevin Harvick. On Sunday, the Cup Series visits Texas Motor Speedway for the first official points race of the season. Kyle Larson, last week’s winner at the ROVAL, secured a victory in the All-Star Race at Texas back in June. This week the stakes will be even higher for playoff contenders because a victory in Sunday’s Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 guarantees a spot in the championship 4 at Phoenix!
Due to the revamped 2021 schedule, the Cup Series has not frequented the 1.5 mile venues as much as many would expect from a traditional season. In fact, Denny Hamlin’s victory in the opening race in the Round of 12 at Las Vegas stands as the solo event on a 1.5 mile surface since Atlanta in early July. As a result, I believe bettors should be slightly conservative this week with their predictions. We will obviously break down some performance trends below to give everyone an idea towards how teams/drivers have performed at the 1.5 mile venues this season. However, it is worth noting the time differential that includes just two races in the last two months on the intermediate layouts. Therefore, we should expect some slight differences as teams have had extra time to put their best stuff forward for this final stretch of the season.
Loop Data
Texas Motor Speedway is not a very difficult 1.5 mile venue. The track was reconfigured and repaved in 2017. As a result, the surface at Texas provides tremendous grip. With the 550 horsepower package, Cup Series drivers will have minimal time off the throttle. Therefore, the teams that produce the most aerodynamic speed will likely prevail as long as the setup provides balance. For those reasons, I rarely give a ton of attention to prior Texas results as I believe this particular venue favors the equipment over the driver in most circumstances.
Still, I did provide a viewpoint below that includes the last 5 races at Texas and was relatively surprised to see Ryan Blaney at the top of the list. Kyle Busch (4), Kevin Harvick (3), and Denny Hamlin (3) have been the heavy hitters at Texas in recent years with 10 combined victories. Despite not having any wins at Texas, Blaney has been very consistent which helped him earn the top spot. In fact, Blaney has finished 8th or better in 6 of the last 7 races at Texas which perhaps provokes the idea that the #12 car could be a dark horse when the green flag waves on Sunday.
In the bottom graph, I compiled loop data statistics for the last 4 races at 1.5 mile speedways which includes Kansas, Charlotte, Atlanta, and Las Vegas. In this particular data set, you see more of the 550hp performance trends emerge. As you can see, Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch have put a gap between the rest of the competition with extremely impressive stats. Larson has two wins on 1.5 mile surfaces this year and an All-Star victory at Texas as well. Meanwhile, Busch has been incredible with the 550hp package this season finishing in the top 5 in every race, at 1.5 mile tracks, since Las Vegas in early March. For Hamlin, he deserves the ultimate respect as well due to the #11 teams’ late season emergence. Hamlin has solid averages with the 550hp package and has been the hottest driver in the series in recent weeks which includes two playoff wins in each opening round at Darlington and Las Vegas.
The noteworthy outliers in the bottom graphs include surprisingly strong results from the likes of Tyler Reddick and Brad Keselowski. Reddick has consistently been the best among the non-playoff drivers in recent weeks and is coming off a runner-up finish last week at the ROVAL. Keselowski has not had the season that many would expect but is still alive in the championship picture. I was surprised to see Keselowski slide into the 6th position in our loop data ranking and perhaps that is worth keeping in our back pocket. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Martin Truex Jr and Joey Logano are among the drivers that have not shown many positives with the 550hp package. Logano has struggled the most among the popular drivers with just a single top 10 finish all year on the 1.5 mile surfaces.
*Data reflects last 5 races at Texas Motor Speedway
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | 113.3 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 38 | 169 | 255 | 1564 |
| Kevin Harvick | 113.2 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 32 | 203 | 364 | 1672 |
| Kyle Busch | 110.3 | 10.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 56 | 151 | 185 | 1673 |
| Joey Logano | 105.1 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 32 | 48 | 89 | 1672 |
| Aric Almirola | 98.9 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 25 | 112 | 101 | 1671 |
| Kurt Busch | 96.8 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 14 | 73 | 1 | 1673 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 96.2 | 13.2 | 9.8 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 46 | 60 | 78 | 1659 |
| Erik Jones | 94.8 | 13.0 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 36 | 57 | 48 | 1672 |
| Austin Dillon | 86.5 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 25 | 18 | 27 | 1673 |
| Alex Bowman | 86.1 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 14.4 | 12.6 | -1 | 58 | 57 | 1657 |
| William Byron | 83.3 | 11.6 | 14.0 | 17.8 | 13.0 | 13 | 33 | 23 | 1590 |
| Chase Elliott | 82.5 | 9.0 | 18.6 | 16.6 | 16.0 | -21 | 51 | 35 | 1650 |
| Denny Hamlin | 81.3 | 5.8 | 19.4 | 17.6 | 17.4 | -71 | 47 | 56 | 1660 |
| Tyler Reddick | 80.0 | 21.5 | 24.5 | 8.5 | 15.5 | -4 | 12 | 5 | 668 |
| Daniel Suarez | 79.0 | 19.4 | 16.0 | 16.8 | 17.8 | -2 | 50 | 34 | 1657 |
| Christopher Bell | 78.9 | 24.0 | 17.5 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 49 | 32 | 5 | 665 |
| Kyle Larson | 77.9 | 19.0 | 17.7 | 18.7 | 16.7 | 61 | 21 | 0 | 818 |
| Brad Keselowski | 76.0 | 6.8 | 21.6 | 20.4 | 19.4 | 36 | 40 | 65 | 1336 |
| Cole Custer | 72.1 | 17.5 | 14.5 | 26.5 | 20.0 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 553 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 70.9 | 18.4 | 18.2 | 20.6 | 17.2 | -12 | 9 | 3 | 1633 |
| Ryan Newman | 68.6 | 19.4 | 18.0 | 15.2 | 17.6 | -32 | 3 | 0 | 1669 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 68.4 | 15.6 | 19.0 | 23.4 | 21.6 | 10 | 11 | 0 | 1277 |
| Chris Buescher | 61.4 | 19.2 | 19.6 | 23.0 | 21.8 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 1644 |
| Michael McDowell | 58.8 | 25.6 | 24.2 | 22.0 | 23.8 | -31 | 3 | 0 | 1659 |
| Ryan Preece | 57.8 | 27.3 | 19.5 | 25.8 | 23.0 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 1213 |
| Bubba Wallace | 56.2 | 18.8 | 25.6 | 24.8 | 24.0 | -47 | 3 | 2 | 1391 |
| Corey LaJoie | 42.3 | 33.0 | 31.0 | 29.4 | 30.6 | -50 | 4 | 0 | 1331 |
| Ross Chastain | 36.9 | 34.3 | 33.0 | 30.7 | 32.3 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 974 |
| Garrett Smithley | 36.4 | 37.3 | 31.0 | 33.0 | 32.3 | -19 | 2 | 0 | 838 |
| Josh Bilicki | 35.7 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 30.0 | 33.3 | -21 | 2 | 0 | 967 |
| Quin Houff | 35.0 | 32.3 | 33.3 | 33.3 | 33.0 | -8 | 1 | 0 | 813 |
*Date reflects races at Kansas, Charlotte, Atlanta, and Las Vegas
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | 122.6 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 42 | 129 | 114 | 1194 |
| Kyle Larson | 121.1 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | -7 | 186 | 554 | 1194 |
| Denny Hamlin | 109.7 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 27 | 64 | 149 | 1194 |
| Chase Elliott | 108.4 | 8.0 | 13.3 | 4.0 | 7.8 | 23 | 79 | 36 | 1194 |
| Tyler Reddick | 102.4 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 12 | 57 | 11 | 1194 |
| Brad Keselowski | 97.5 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 9.3 | -2 | 32 | 82 | 1194 |
| William Byron | 97.0 | 7.0 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 9.3 | 13 | 90 | 26 | 1192 |
| Kevin Harvick | 96.5 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 32 | 38 | 0 | 1194 |
| Ryan Blaney | 96.1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 11.0 | 10.3 | -21 | 43 | 10 | 1194 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 91.9 | 8.0 | 13.5 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 40 | 27 | 1 | 1185 |
| Alex Bowman | 90.5 | 14.0 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 11.8 | -5 | 29 | 5 | 1192 |
| Kurt Busch | 87.9 | 17.0 | 16.5 | 15.5 | 14.8 | 26 | 66 | 144 | 933 |
| Austin Dillon | 87.8 | 10.0 | 13.8 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 31 | 33 | 8 | 1193 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 82.0 | 13.3 | 14.5 | 10.8 | 13.8 | -10 | 5 | 2 | 1192 |
| Joey Logano | 76.8 | 16.0 | 13.5 | 16.0 | 13.8 | -16 | 17 | 0 | 1191 |
| Christopher Bell | 74.3 | 10.3 | 18.3 | 21.0 | 16.5 | 7 | 27 | 3 | 1187 |
| Bubba Wallace | 73.0 | 19.0 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 16.8 | -4 | 7 | 0 | 1192 |
| Chris Buescher | 72.5 | 21.5 | 15.3 | 14.3 | 17.5 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 1192 |
| Chase Briscoe | 64.8 | 17.5 | 22.5 | 18.0 | 20.5 | -7 | 1 | 0 | 1190 |
| Ross Chastain | 61.7 | 15.3 | 25.3 | 23.8 | 23.0 | -28 | 15 | 0 | 1150 |
| Daniel Suarez | 61.5 | 20.8 | 20.8 | 19.3 | 23.8 | -5 | 9 | 0 | 1174 |
| Ryan Newman | 60.2 | 24.3 | 23.5 | 22.8 | 23.3 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 1185 |
| Erik Jones | 59.4 | 21.0 | 21.8 | 22.8 | 21.5 | -11 | 21 | 0 | 1187 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 59.0 | 15.8 | 18.8 | 25.0 | 21.8 | -4 | 11 | 23 | 1102 |
| Aric Almirola | 56.1 | 21.5 | 17.5 | 23.3 | 22.5 | -3 | 3 | 8 | 1185 |
| Michael McDowell | 54.3 | 18.8 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 22.8 | -34 | 14 | 0 | 1187 |
| Cole Custer | 52.3 | 21.0 | 21.3 | 22.8 | 24.0 | -28 | 2 | 1 | 1188 |
| Corey LaJoie | 50.4 | 26.3 | 25.8 | 24.5 | 24.8 | -6 | 1 | 0 | 1185 |
| Anthony Alfredo | 49.4 | 28.8 | 19.5 | 25.3 | 25.3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1185 |
| Ryan Preece | 47.1 | 24.5 | 20.8 | 27.8 | 25.3 | -17 | 15 | 1 | 1179 |
| Justin Haley | 40.0 | 30.5 | 30.3 | 29.8 | 30.5 | -12 | 0 | 0 | 1173 |
| B.J. McLeod | 35.8 | 33.3 | 32.0 | 31.3 | 32.0 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 1160 |
| Cody Ware | 34.8 | 33.3 | 32.5 | 32.5 | 32.3 | -9 | 0 | 0 | 1159 |
| Garrett Smithley | 31.9 | 34.8 | 34.0 | 33.3 | 33.8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1153 |
| Quin Houff | 29.6 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.5 | 34.3 | -17 | 0 | 0 | 1148 |
| Josh Bilicki | 26.5 | 33.8 | 35.8 | 36.0 | 36.0 | -19 | 0 | 0 | 1132 |
Betting Targets
In many ways, I see the handicapping aspect of Sunday’s Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 similar to the recent South Point 400 at Las Vegas strategy which included avoiding the overall favorite in Kyle Larson for the likes of Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. I believe Hamlin and Busch have the better 1.5 mile performance at this point in the season and both drivers are getting more than twice the value compared to Larson. Additionally, I would also look very closely at Ryan Blaney as one of the better intermediate options on Sunday. Blaney is currently listed at +1250 and maybe among the best values on the entire board.
Another reasonable long shot option includes the #48 of Alex Bowman who is currently listed at more than 30-1 odds. Bowman has finished in the top 5 in 2 of the last 3 races at Texas. Bowman has been better with the 750hp package this season but should be considered based on the absurd value combined with the Hendrick Motorsports’ performance on the 1.5 mile speedways. Aside from the outright win (futures) predictions, I would label Tyler Reddick and Kurt Busch among my top H2H options that should provide sharp value on Sunday. I mentioned Reddick earlier in the loop data and honestly he has probably been the most improved driver throughout the season. Meanwhile, Kurt Busch has finished 1st, 4th, and 8th in the last 3 races at 1.5 mile venues. Not only is Busch a former winner at Texas (2009) but he has also finished in the top 10 in each of the last 8 races at Texas Motor Speedway.
For fantasy options, Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick are ideal options from the 17th and 24th starting positions. Harvick has not been nearly as good as most would expect this season at the 1.5 mile venues but still has finished 11th or better in every 1.5 mile race since Las Vegas in March. From the 24th starting position, Harvick just has to continue to stay the course to hit value. Likewise, Kurt Busch has shown too much strength at the 1.5 mile venues to be ignored from the 17th starting position especially for fantasy purposes. As mentioned earlier, Busch has finished in the top 8 in each of the last 3 races and provides solid leverage against many of the top names.
Drivers to Fade
I mentioned earlier in the loop data that Joey Logano has struggled significantly this season with the 550hp package. Logano has a measly 16.7 average finishing position in the 7 races this season at 1.5 mile intermediate speedways. Those numbers cannot be ignored when he is being paired against the majority of the championship contenders that have shown a more reliable ceiling. As a result, Logano is one of my top fades this week among the top drivers.
Another driver that I am looking to fade for similar reasons includes 2nd year driver Cole Custer. Everyone knows the Stewart-Haas Racing cars have struggled this season on the 1.5 mile surfaces. With that being said, Custer and the #41 team have been the worst group within the team. Custer has cracked the top 20 in just two races this season at the 1.5 mile races which includes dismal results of 17th and 18th in those two “successes.” While Custer is typically paired against bottom-tier drivers, I still believe we can fade the #41 with confidence this week.
Draftkings 2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Optimal Lineup
2021 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Betting Picks
*Final*
Denny Hamlin +750 (.75 unit)Kyle Busch +850 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1250 (.75 unit)
Alex Bowman +3200 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Daniel Suarez -120 over Cole Custer (3 units)Denny Hamlin -130 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
William Byron -110 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Related Posts
