2021 Andy’s Frozen Custard 335 Race Picks
- Updated: October 15, 2021
Saturday October 16th, 3:00PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
With just 4 races remaining in the season, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will kick off the Round of 8 on Saturday with the running of Andy’s Frozen Custard 335 at Texas Motor Speedway. The 2021 schedule has provided a lot of changes this season which primarily got away from the abundance of 1.5 mile venues that previously dominated the schedule. However, these next two races at Texas and Kansas will be extremely pivotal venues in both series’ battle for the championship.
The good news for the Xfinity Series is that this will be their 2nd trip to Texas Motor Speedway. Unlike the Cup Series, the Xfinity Series visited Texas back in June for an official points paying event. Kyle Busch emerged as the winner in the Alsco Uniforms 250 with Justin Allgaier, Austin Cindric, Daniel Hemric, and Brandon Jones rounding out the top 5. While the prior race at Texas is noteworthy, I don’t believe bettors should hang their hats on that lone event. Instead, we will break down performance trends throughout all the 1.5 mile venues this season since Texas is very dependent upon aerodynamic speed. Since the 1.5 mile speedways have been spread out this year, it is important that we put these performance trends into perspective before finalizing picks on Saturday.
Loop data at 1.5 mile tracks
Since the 1.5 mile speedways have been somewhat infrequent this season, I compiled a selective data set that includes the last 4 races on the intermediate layouts consisting of Charlotte, Texas, Atlanta, and Kansas. One item that may be worth mentioning is that the #54 car won 3 of those events at Charlotte, Texas, and Atlanta. Kyle Busch won at Texas and Atlanta while Ty Gibbs was victorious at Charlotte. I think that is important because Charlotte, Texas, and Atlanta are extremely similar in layout despite different grip compositions. As a result, we have to boost John Hunter Nemechek’s potential this week as he returns to the #54 car to make his 2nd start of the season with Joe Gibbs Racing.
If I included either Gibbs or Busch in the loop date below, they would have been the drivers with the top averages this week. While I would not classify Nemechek in the same category as either Busch or Gibbs, we cannot ignore the speed the #54 team has shown on the 1.5 mile surfaces from a totality lens. Still, the averages of Austin Cindric, Justin Allgaier, and Daniel Hemric are also pretty impressive over the course of all 4 races in the sample size. Additionally, both AJ Allmendinger and Noah Gragson have also compiled triple digit ratings. Perhaps another noteworthy overachiever includes Brett Moffitt who has produced an 83.8 average rating which bests the likes of Riley Herbst, Josh Berry, Jeb Burton, and others. From an underperforming standpoint based on typical expectations, I would point to the likes of Jeb Burton and Sam Mayer as the drivers that are far below where they should be given the equipment/driver combination.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Cindric | 113.0 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 34 | 55 | 49 | 736 |
| Justin Allgaier | 111.7 | 13.3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 49 | 62 | 117 | 736 |
| Daniel Hemric | 109.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 16.8 | 5.0 | 8 | 49 | 163 | 722 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 106.4 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 14.8 | 7.8 | -6 | 50 | 32 | 664 |
| Noah Gragson | 100.2 | 17.8 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 79 | 26 | 6 | 723 |
| Harrison Burton | 96.4 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 16.8 | 8.0 | 47 | 18 | 5 | 728 |
| Justin Haley | 94.4 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 9.5 | -12 | 5 | 3 | 736 |
| Brandon Jones | 92.1 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 14.5 | 11.8 | 42 | 14 | 16 | 690 |
| Brett Moffitt | 83.8 | 20.3 | 14.3 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 61 | 7 | 0 | 733 |
| Josh Berry | 79.0 | 22.3 | 17.0 | 18.8 | 16.0 | 39 | 29 | 38 | 686 |
| Riley Herbst | 76.8 | 8.3 | 23.0 | 19.0 | 17.3 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 566 |
| Ryan Sieg | 76.7 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 17.8 | 16.5 | 59 | 7 | 4 | 685 |
| Jeb Burton | 74.7 | 10.5 | 26.5 | 19.8 | 21.8 | -44 | 4 | 1 | 553 |
| Myatt Snider | 72.0 | 12.8 | 17.8 | 23.8 | 17.5 | -14 | 0 | 0 | 716 |
| Brandon Brown | 71.6 | 16.8 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.8 | -20 | 1 | 0 | 731 |
| Jeremy Clements | 69.3 | 14.5 | 21.5 | 17.8 | 20.8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 565 |
| Sam Mayer | 66.6 | 16.5 | 24.0 | 21.5 | 22.5 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 195 |
| Tommy Joe Martins | 66.5 | 24.0 | 16.3 | 20.0 | 19.3 | -16 | 0 | 0 | 721 |
| Landon Cassill | 63.3 | 27.0 | 19.8 | 20.5 | 22.5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 699 |
| Jade Buford | 57.5 | 22.0 | 23.3 | 19.0 | 23.5 | -23 | 0 | 0 | 730 |
| Alex Labbe | 57.5 | 19.3 | 27.8 | 21.3 | 25.0 | -52 | 0 | 0 | 565 |
| Kyle Weatherman | 56.1 | 31.0 | 23.0 | 29.0 | 23.0 | -11 | 0 | 3 | 461 |
| Josh Williams | 55.5 | 20.3 | 24.3 | 20.0 | 23.0 | -74 | 0 | 0 | 730 |
| Ryan Vargas | 53.1 | 24.5 | 29.3 | 18.3 | 26.3 | -56 | 0 | 0 | 734 |
| Bayley Currey | 50.8 | 38.0 | 24.7 | 29.0 | 28.3 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 362 |
| Colby Howard | 49.3 | 30.3 | 25.7 | 26.0 | 25.7 | -30 | 0 | 0 | 515 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 48.0 | 27.3 | 27.8 | 27.3 | 28.3 | -19 | 0 | 0 | 664 |
| David Starr | 46.4 | 34.7 | 27.7 | 27.0 | 28.3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 418 |
| Matt Mills | 41.4 | 25.3 | 30.3 | 28.8 | 29.3 | -36 | 0 | 0 | 632 |
| Jesse Little | 37.8 | 28.7 | 34.0 | 25.0 | 31.0 | -26 | 0 | 0 | 530 |
| Joe Graf Jr | 34.8 | 29.7 | 32.3 | 32.0 | 32.0 | -50 | 0 | 0 | 356 |
Betting Targets
If I am being honest, these Xfinity Series races on the 1.5 mile speedways do not seem like ideal betting events. I am personally leaning towards Austin Cindric as the outright favorite but there has been solid parity between many of the top guys in the Xfinity Series this season. With that being said, I am also leaning towards Nemechek and Daniel Hemric as mild dark horses this week. I absolutely hate betting Hemric but I do think he is more likely to end his winless streak at a 1.5 mile venue rather than anywhere else.
For H2H options, Brett Moffitt and Harrison Burton are the guys that I believe provide the sharpest value. I mentioned earlier in the loop data observations that Moffitt’s performance has been surprising despite the fact he is not in top-tier equipment. However, Moffitt has posted top 12 finishes in each of the last 3 races on 1.5 mile tracks which included an 8th place finish at Texas in June. Meanwhile, Harrison Burton is the defending winner of the Andy’s Frozen Custard 335. Burton finished in the top 5 in both Texas races in 2020 and was running well in the June race before being involved in an accident. I believe Burton has legitimate top 5 potential and we can leverage those expectations into H2H match-ups.
Draftkings Andy’s Frozen Custard 335 Optimal Lineup
2021 Andy’s Frozen Custard 335 Race Picks
*Final*
John Hunter Nemechek +375 (1 unit)Harrison Burton +1250 (.5 unit)
Daniel Hemric +1500 (.5 unit)
Match-Ups and Props
Harrison Burton -125 over Brandon Jones (2 units)Brett Moffitt -115 over Myatt Snider (2 units)
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