2021 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 10th, 2021. 2:00PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s best return to Charlotte Motor Speedway this weekend for an elimination race in the Round of 12. After a wild and rain-shortened race at Talladega last week, championship contenders will try to keep their playoff hopes alive on Charlotte’s ROVAL course. The Cup Series has frequented road course venues throughout the year and this Sunday’s return to the ROVAL will officially be the 7th and final road course race of the season. As a result, we should have a good barometer towards what to expect and hopefully that translates into strong betting opportunities for the Bank of America ROVAL 400!

The breakdown of road course races this season includes Christopher Bell’s victory at Daytona, Chase Elliott’s wins at COTA and Road America, Kyle Larson’s victories at Sonoma and Watkins Glen, and more recently A.J. Allmendinger’s breakthrough victory at Indianapolis. While Elliott and Larson have been the dominant drivers on the road courses throughout the season, it is worth pointing out that both Bell and Allmendinger’s victories were sizable upsets. Therefore, nothing is guaranteed going into Sunday’s race at the ROVAL especially with so many playoff drivers within close proximity of each other.

The main goal of betting this weekend’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 will be accepting value where it is given. We know Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson will be overwhelming favorites with saturated win odds. However as I stated before, we have seen upsets on the road courses on multiple occasions this season and it is not out of the equation again this week especially when you factor in the possibility of pit strategy. Therefore, bettors could take some low-risk gambles towards dark horses to bring ROI potential to betting lineups. With that being said, our biggest area of focus will likely pertain to H2H match-ups given the short odds among the heavy favorites.

Road Course Loop Data

I compiled multiple loop data tables this week for bettors to observe. In the first graph, we have a breakdown of the 3 prior events at the ROVAL. Some people may forget that the ROVAL is a relatively new event which debuted in 2018 with Ryan Blaney’s win thanks to a final lap disaster between Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex. Chase Elliott has conquered the ROVAL in each of the last two races which includes one of the most impressive wins of his career in 2019 when Elliott wrecked then drove back through the field en route to victory. As a result, Elliott clearly gets the nod over Larson this week due to his dominance at the ROVAL while notable mentions should be given to Byron, Harvick, and Blaney for their performances through the prior 3 races at the ROVAL.

Personally, I don’t believe the ROVAL is a difficult road course to figure out but that does not mean the road course skill set is any less important. As a result, I have compiled another table below which highlights all 6 prior road course races this season for a better in-season performance evaluation. Again you will notice the separation between Elliott and Larson among the rest of the field however you will also see a few additional names creep into the conversation in the likes of Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch. While there are not many major surprises towards the top of this list, I would mention that both Ross Chastain and Kurt Busch standout as drivers surpassing expectations in the intermediate range of drivers.

*Last 3 races at the ROVAL

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Chase Elliott	124.5	8.3	18.7	2.7	8.0	99	49	62	327
Kyle Larson	110.2	6.0	8.0	19.0	9.5	12	39	52	218
William Byron	105.2	11.7	8.7	15.3	10.3	30	21	50	321
Martin Truex Jr	103.1	9.3	18.0	9.3	9.3	69	21	6	327
Kevin Harvick	102.3	9.7	4.7	7.7	9.7	8	14	34	327
Ryan Blaney	100.4	14.0	15.3	4.7	12.3	52	26	30	327
Joey Logano	98.1	8.7	21.3	7.3	12.3	19	5	4	327
Brad Keselowski	95.5	13.0	12.3	18.0	11.0	5	11	39	321
Kurt Busch	94.2	11.3	14.7	9.7	13.0	120	12	7	327
Alex Bowman	87.8	3.3	21.0	4.7	15.3	49	6	2	327
Kyle Busch	78.8	13.3	14.0	33.0	14.0	-40	3	3	311
Ryan Preece	72.8	16.0	20.0	17.5	18.0	-3	0	8	218
Aric Almirola	71.9	16.0	23.7	16.3	18.0	-30	0	0	327
Denny Hamlin	69.4	18.7	22.7	15.3	20.7	-29	5	0	327
Matt DiBenedetto	66.2	22.0	26.0	15.3	20.0	12	1	0	327
Michael McDowell	65.4	23.7	25.0	20.7	17.7	-1	0	0	327
Erik Jones	64.2	13.7	19.0	24.3	24.0	-49	1	1	240
Austin Dillon	64.1	20.0	20.3	27.0	23.0	1	1	0	282
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	64.1	27.3	12.0	23.7	20.0	-55	2	2	318
Chris Buescher	64.1	14.3	11.3	18.3	20.0	9	1	0	327
Daniel Suarez	61.2	21.3	11.3	26.7	19.3	-54	0	0	326
Bubba Wallace	54.7	28.3	21.7	27.0	24.0	0	2	0	321
Ryan Newman	50.0	22.7	21.0	24.7	23.0	-58	1	0	327
Corey LaJoie	47.3	29.0	26.5	27.0	28.0	-23	0	0	218
Ross Chastain	40.9	36.0	38.0	23.0	34.0	35	1	0	218
J.J. Yeley	33.6	33.3	33.3	30.7	33.0	6	2	0	325
Josh Bilicki	32.4	31.5	30.0	35.5	32.5	19	3	0	191

*2021 Road Courses

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Chase Elliott	120.8	9.8	6.2	5.2	7.5	79	73	100	463
Kyle Larson	119.3	3.5	8.0	8.8	5.8	31	73	116	463
Kyle Busch	103.4	17.3	7.7	12.8	10.7	58	14	18	462
Denny Hamlin	100.7	8.8	9.0	9.7	9.2	29	28	40	463
Martin Truex Jr	100.2	13.2	10.3	12.8	12.3	7	31	38	433
Joey Logano	98.0	8.8	18.7	13.3	11.0	35	9	40	445
Kurt Busch	90.7	18.8	10.2	10.0	12.0	57	5	12	463
Christopher Bell	89.2	13.2	13.2	18.0	15.7	-6	25	5	409
A.J. Allmendinger	89.2	13.0	23.8	10.5	15.0	74	10	4	281
Ross Chastain	87.9	14.5	16.5	16.3	15.2	-41	8	4	417
William Byron	86.1	7.8	7.8	25.2	13.3	-49	13	21	428
Alex Bowman	81.0	16.5	15.7	14.3	14.8	4	3	3	463
Tyler Reddick	78.5	10.5	14.5	17.5	15.5	77	5	11	451
Chase Briscoe	77.7	22.3	12.8	16.0	15.3	-78	8	12	462
Matt DiBenedetto	76.0	17.7	16.5	18.2	16.2	-97	5	11	458
Austin Cindric	75.6	7.0	17.7	24.0	19.7	-95	4	6	184
Ryan Blaney	75.5	13.8	19.0	13.0	17.8	-28	1	0	463
Michael McDowell	72.2	16.8	18.7	20.7	18.3	17	4	4	456
Kevin Harvick	72.1	13.2	17.2	19.0	18.2	-35	3	0	428
Austin Dillon	71.8	16.8	19.3	19.3	17.5	32	0	1	455
Chris Buescher	71.0	20.8	18.7	14.5	17.8	-36	1	0	463
Cole Custer	67.7	15.7	24.8	21.5	18.5	13	1	0	432
Brad Keselowski	66.0	16.7	18.7	18.5	20.2	5	0	11	460
Erik Jones	64.8	25.8	20.2	15.7	20.3	45	1	0	462
Aric Almirola	62.7	20.5	21.5	19.8	21.3	-125	0	1	463
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	59.6	21.7	30.5	19.8	23.2	80	2	1	411
Daniel Suarez	59.4	17.2	24.3	27.5	26.0	-108	6	2	426
Ryan Preece	58.4	25.7	22.8	24.7	23.5	89	3	2	388
Bubba Wallace	57.4	22.0	24.0	23.2	24.7	-183	0	0	427
Corey LaJoie	52.9	22.0	22.2	21.7	23.0	1	0	0	463
Ryan Newman	48.8	29.8	19.2	24.0	24.5	-118	0	0	462
Justin Haley	45.4	26.2	26.2	25.2	28.0	73	0	0	328
Anthony Alfredo	43.8	30.7	25.7	28.7	28.7	-154	0	0	415
James Davison	42.3	33.2	30.7	29.0	30.3	129	0	0	399
Josh Bilicki	40.3	31.2	29.2	28.2	29.5	91	0	0	459
Cody Ware	37.1	31.8	33.2	32.4	31.2	13	0	0	315
Garrett Smithley	32.0	33.6	32.0	30.2	32.0	-3	0	0	397
Quin Houff	29.7	34.7	34.3	33.0	33.8	38	0	0	355

Betting Targets

In terms of the outright victory, Chase Elliott is clearly the driver to beat this weekend and he is a driver that also needs a good run from the playoff perspective. We could make an argument that Larson deserves betting consideration as a pivot against Elliott. In reality, if I am going to take the short odds on either driver this week, I would greatly prefer Elliott. If we are to look outside the favorites, there is some really generous value being given to live dark horses this week. Guys like William Byron, Kevin Harvick, Ryan Blaney, and Alex Bowman are being given 20-1 value and greater at BetAnySports For drivers that have proven to be solid at the ROVAL, this is tremendous value and almost warrants a few low-risk bets simply on value alone.

In terms of H2H options, Ross Chastain and Alex Bowman are among my favorite targets this week. I would throw William Byron into that category but most of his H2H pairings are against other top-tier drivers. Alex Bowman is a 2nd-tier option that has home run potential. Bowman has posted finishes of 4th, 2nd, and 8th in 3 career starts at the ROVAL. Bowman’s team admittedly missed the setup in last year’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 but he still brought home an 8th place finish. Based on the #48 team’s performance this year with the 750hp package, I believe Bowman has legitimate top 5 potential if not more. For Chastain, he has just really improved throughout the year especially under the 750hp package whether that has been on short tracks or road courses. Chastain posted decent results at the ROVAL in inferior equipment in 2018 and 2019. Based on the performance in recent weeks, I feel like this is another breakout spot for the #42 team. Based on the H2H pairings, Chastain may be among the sharpest bets of the weekend.

Another decent H2H and even stronger fantasy option includes the #16 of AJ Allmendinger. I know Allmendinger’s value has been curtailed this week due to his win at Indianapolis but he has been really strong at the ROVAL in the Xfinity Series. The #16 team at Kaulig Racing has produced fast cars which lessen our equipment concerns this week. While I don’t necessarily believe Allmendinger will be among the guys battling for the win, I am expecting a strong run at the same time. If we also play the same Xfinity Series angle, Chase Briscoe also deserves some consideration for bottom-tier match-ups. Briscoe won the 2018 inaugural Xfinity Series’ race at the ROVAL and was the dominant driver again last year before some late-race trouble. The troubling side is that Briscoe has not done much at all in the Cup Series throughout the season. With that being said, statistically he has been decent on the road courses and perhaps that leads to a higher ceiling this Sunday.

Drivers to Fade

Normally drivers that I mention for fade consideration are based on performance more so than finishing positions. However, I can’t ignore Kyle Busch’s terrible luck at the ROVAL through 3 starts which includes finishes of 32nd, 37th, and 30th. Busch is being given a lot of credit this week from odds-makers and is officially the 4th highest betting favorite on the board. Based on historical finishes, it is worth considering the #18 as another fade candidate this weekend. Another driver that I have on my radar this week includes Bubba Wallace. I’m hoping that odds-makers somehow overreact to Wallace’s win last week and forget that he is a terrible road course talent. Even in bottom-tier match-ups, Wallace is a solid fade option.

*Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex, and Denny Hamlin are a few other popular drivers that I am not necessarily high on from an expectations standpoint. For clarity, Truex and Hamlin are top-tier favorites and I don’t believe they will be serious threats for the victory. This does not mean these drivers are auto-fade options but could provide fade possibilities in the right match-ups.

Draftkings 2021 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Optimal Lineup

2021 Bank of America ROVAL 400 Betting Picks

*Final*

Chase Elliott +225 (2 units)
William Byron +1800 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +2600 (.5 unit)
Kevin Harvick +2800 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Kyle Larson -125 over Martin Truex Jr (3 units)
Joey Logano -110 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Ross Chastain -105 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
AJ Allmendinger +300 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Alex Bowman +105 finishes Top 10 (3 units)