2021 Yellawood 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday October 3rd, 2021. 2:00PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to the high-banks of Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday for the running of the Yellawood 500. Rest assured teams and drivers have Talladega circled on the calendar as the wildcard event in the playoffs. Not only will superspeedway racing inevitably shake up the championship picture in the 2nd race in the Round of 12 but bettors can also take solace into the fact this is one of the rare betting opportunities to cash on lottery style dark horses. As Sunday’s Yellawood 500 approaches, we embrace the unpredictable nature of superspeedway racing and try to parlay that into a highly profitable payday.

Obviously, handicapping races at Daytona and Talladega are about as certain as purely guessing. By executing a strategy that focuses on ROI and minimizing overall risk, we can still have long-term success at the superspeedway races. For small sample sizes like individual races, we will need a little luck to be on our side and that is what we are hoping for in Sunday’s Yellawood 500. For outright predictions and expectations, there are no wrong arguments or considerations this week. After all, superspeedway racing can produce winners at any level at Talladega has historically produced more surprise winners between the two superspeedway venues. With that being said, we will try to predict those drivers that consistently run towards the front of the field who may find themselves in the best position to go after a victory in the closing laps.

Loop Data at Talladega

For this week’s loop data, I simply compiled stats from the last 5 races at Talladega. Interestingly, the trio of Team Penske has a clear performance separation when observing overall averages. Typically, superspeedway averages are relatively condensed but the Team Penske cars have a whopping 10 point cushion to 4th place William Byron. Blaney has won 2 of the last 4 races at Talladega. Keselowski won the spring race and owns the most wins (6) among active drivers. Logano is a 3-time winner at Talladega but has not struck gold since the spring of 2018 which makes his stats look even more impressive in the 5 race sample.

Behind the Team Penske cars, there is a big group of cars in the mid to low 80s average ratings. Among the group are former winners in the likes of Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, and Aric Almirola. However, there are also a few surprises in the likes of Cole Custer, Matt DiBenedetto, Chris Buescher, and Ryan Preece. Perhaps the biggest surprise is that you have to look even lower to find Denny Hamlin who has been the best superspeedway in the Cup Series over the last several years. You also have to keep scrolling down for the likes of Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Austin Dillon who are always considered dark horses based on prior superspeedway success. Statistically, Dillon and Stenhouse have been bust way more often than they have found success which should be considered because both drivers’ betting odds are often over-saturated.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Brad Keselowski	100.7	6.6	6.8	15.2	8.8	43	18	39	952
Ryan Blaney	99.7	9.8	14.0	10.2	9.6	6	18	123	950
Joey Logano	98.8	7.4	16.4	19.4	11.6	89	17	141	814
William Byron	88.0	14.4	7.4	14.2	12.4	32	17	37	932
Cole Custer	84.4	24.3	11.7	21.0	15.3	16	6	0	490
Chase Elliott	84.2	8.2	11.4	18.6	13.8	51	24	110	902
Kyle Busch	83.0	13.2	13.8	21.2	12.0	52	25	22	944
Matt DiBenedetto	82.8	21.2	12.4	22.6	13.2	21	29	40	943
Aric Almirola	82.7	9.4	17.4	13.6	17.6	-118	13	55	815
Alex Bowman	82.3	5.6	13.0	19.6	16.6	9	8	20	808
Chris Buescher	82.0	22.2	19.0	16.6	14.8	51	16	20	950
Kurt Busch	82.0	12.4	13.0	22.0	16.2	2	18	16	853
Ryan Preece	80.6	29.0	17.4	12.0	18.0	119	27	12	958
Erik Jones	80.1	18.8	19.0	17.4	17.4	-100	26	25	931
Tyler Reddick	79.1	22.0	16.7	11.3	14.7	43	17	21	582
Denny Hamlin	77.4	13.4	29.8	15.2	21.0	-14	20	87	847
Austin Dillon	76.9	12.2	9.8	15.8	16.4	2	24	1	900
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	74.5	15.2	18.0	21.4	18.0	68	17	53	760
Ryan Newman	71.7	19.6	18.8	10.2	22.0	51	36	6	958
Martin Truex Jr	69.8	9.0	20.0	24.6	19.2	-23	19	21	948
Kevin Harvick	68.1	12.0	23.6	17.8	18.8	-14	22	16	781
Bubba Wallace	67.8	26.0	17.4	24.0	21.2	115	27	28	769
Daniel Suarez	64.2	24.4	18.0	25.8	21.8	25	26	0	845
Michael McDowell	62.7	21.4	26.0	20.4	23.4	-33	30	1	659
Corey LaJoie	61.2	29.8	26.4	16.8	26.4	56	20	0	946
Christopher Bell	60.8	21.0	20.3	28.3	21.3	5	7	6	382
Ross Chastain	58.8	28.7	31.3	18.0	24.3	-38	9	21	566
Kyle Larson	56.0	11.3	23.3	34.3	25.3	-46	1	1	296
Justin Haley	52.4	35.7	32.0	24.3	27.0	-71	12	0	570
Quin Houff	44.4	32.3	29.3	25.7	28.3	-99	4	0	558
Joey Gase	35.0	35.8	33.5	31.0	32.8	-5	8	0	688

Betting Targets

As many are aware, there are no wrong choices at Talladega; instead, there are only winners and losers. I have been very conservative this week choosing to forego the Truck Series race and was lucky enough to hit a big winner with Brandon Brown in the Xfinity Series event on Saturday. As a result, I may throw in an extra unit or two than I originally planned, especially if I can find some valuable prop bets. For the outright race winner, I love the value that BetAnySports is providing this week among the favorites. Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski are getting extreme value at 14-1 odds when they should be among the outright favorites. I would also state that Joey Logano is listed at an appetizing mark of 11-1 which gives value on all the Team Penske cars.

Obviously the goal for Talladega is to find betting options that provide upside in the realm of ROI. One driver that deserves immediate consideration is Kurt Busch who is currently getting 27-1 odds. Over the last 7 races, the elder Busch ranks 3rd among active drivers with an average rating of 92.3 which trails only Logano and Blaney. Kurt has never won at Talladega but has been extremely close on multiple occasions and I like the value on the #1 car this week. Speaking of value, I could make strong cases for intermediate drivers like Kevin Harvick and William Byron for obvious reasons. If you move on down the pecking order, both Matt DiBenedetto and Tyler Reddick are both looking for their first Cup Series victories. Both DiBenedetto and Reddick have shown excellent superspeedway racing skills over the last several races and are perceived as bigger long-shots than they actually are; in terms of the outright victory.

Further back in the field, I have a couple of drivers pegged as sleepers in the realm of fantasy racing, prop bets, and perhaps the outright victory. My main lottery pick revolves around Ryan Preece. Preece has been insanely consistent during his short-period as a Cup Series’ driver with 5 career starts that include an average finishing position of 12th and includes a 3rd place finish in his first start in 2019. Preece actually owns the best average finish (16th) among active drivers with at least 10 starts. Preece actually led a handful of laps and was among the frontrunners late in the spring race but was caught up in a late-race incident. A couple of other deep options include Cole Custer, Chase Briscoe, and even Bubba Wallace who have shown flashes of success at the superspeedway venues. Personally, I believe Custer is the best of the group but all of those drivers mentioned have extremely valuable odds to provoke the opportunity of a huge payout.

Drivers to Fade

I am reluctant to list any “fade” options this week primarily because I normally avoid H2H match-ups completely at the superspeedway races and additionally because prior stats do not always correlate to future expectations at these particular venues. With that being said, I do believe Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Kyle Larson are grossly overvalued in terms of betting odds. Stenhouse has ended the races at Talladega on the back of the hook in 3 of the last 5 races at Talladega, granted he does have a runner-up finish in the 2019 fall race. Larson is listed at just 12-1 odds but has been a really “bad” superspeedway driver throughout his Cup Series career. In fact, Larson has a dismal 23.54 average finishing position in 13 career starts at Talladega with just two top 10 finishes that involves a career-best finish of 6th. For one of the outright favorites, those numbers are downright awful.

Draftkings 2021 Yellawood 500 Optimal Lineup

2021 Yellawood 500 Betting Picks

*Final*

Joey Logano +1100 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1400 (.75 unit)
William Byron +1900 (.5 unit)
Kevin Harvick +1900 (.5 unit)
Kurt Busch +2700 (.5 unit)
Matt DiBenedetto +2700 (.5 unit)
Tyler Reddick +3200 (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +5500 (.25 unit)
Ryan Preece +7000 (.25 unit)
Cole Custer +7000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Chris Buescher +600 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Ryan Preece +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Ross Chastain +900 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)