2021 Victorias Voice Foundation 200 Race Picks
- Updated: September 23, 2021
Friday September 24th, 2021. 9:13PM (EST) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
The Camping World Truck Series will kick off 3 straight nights of racing at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this Friday with the running of the Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200. Unlike Xfinity and Cup Series’ teams which have 7 races remaining, the Truck Series has just 3 races before the Championship Finale at Phoenix. Friday’s Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200 will officially start the Round of 8 in the Truck Series’ playoffs and the next 3 events will ultimately decide the final 4 drivers that will run for a championship at Phoenix. After a big win last week with Chandler Smith, it’s time to dive into this week’s Truck Series predictions for Las Vegas!
Friday’s return to Las Vegas will be the 2nd Truck Series’ event of the season in Sin City. Back in March, John Hunter Nemechek dominated the Bucked Up 200 by leading 94 of 134 laps en route to victory over teammate and KBM owner Kyle Busch. The important thing to note about the spring race at Las Vegas is that it was the first event of the season on a 1.5 mile track therefore performance results should be given credibility in moderation since so many races have occurred since the spring race. Furthermore, the Truck Series has not even visited a 1.5 mile venue since June at Texas Motor Speedway meaning this week’s return to Vegas is the first event in over two months on an intermediate layout.
While we cannot look back at the spring race solely to construct expectations this week, we can look at the performance at the 1.5 mile venues in a holistic lens. In fact, I have constructed loop data metrics for all 5 races this season on 1.5 mile venues to clearly articulate trendline expectations. From a betting standpoint, it is easy to get caught up in recent performance trends this week at Las Vegas. Guys like Sheldon Creed and Chandler Smith are coming off really impressive performances in recent weeks. Creed has actually won 2 of the last 3 races and is already getting expectations that compare his momentum to that of which we saw at the end of 2020 during Creed’s championship run. However, I must warn bettors that recent expectations based on performances from the short tracks like Richmond and Bristol do not correlate to expectations at Las Vegas which is why we must evaluate the 1.5 mile performance which speaks to aerodynamic/horsepower performance which is the main ingredient for success this week.
Loop Data
As you can see below, John Hunter Nemechek’s performances at the 1.5 mile venues this season have been simply remarkable. JHN sports an incredible 136.7 average rating which is the highest mark we have witnessed this season throughout all touring series. Nemechek’s stats are compiled by the fact he has led 38% (266 laps) of the overall laps in the sample while posting 19.2% (132 laps) of the fastest laps in the sample. Incredibly, Nemechek has an average running position of 2.6 throughout the 5 races at 1.5 mile tracks this season. Simply put, JHN is posting numbers that would echo or even exceed Kyle Busch’s infamous Truck Series’ stats. For that reason, Nemechek is an undeniable top betting target this week.
If we look through the remainder of the loop data, I was pleasantly surprised to see Austin Hill and Zane Smith in the next two positions in terms of average rating. Hill has performed well all season at the larger venues but Smith has been sort of a forgotten driver during the 2021 campaign. Perhaps the most surprising number from the loop data ratings is that of Sheldon Creed. As mentioned earlier, Creed is the hottest driver in the Truck Series’ right now but has posted a measly 86.3 average rating on the 1.5 mile tracks. While an 86.3 rating is not “bad,” it is completely off the mark for a driver that is considered one of the top favorites in the field for Friday!
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Hunter Nemechek | 136.7 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 32 | 132 | 266 | 685 |
| Austin Hill | 110.5 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 68 | 35 | 0 | 685 |
| Zane Smith | 101.2 | 12.2 | 17.0 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 43 | 17 | 25 | 685 |
| Stewart Friesen | 98.1 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 13.4 | 11.0 | 24 | 20 | 5 | 590 |
| Ben Rhodes | 95.4 | 3.2 | 9.8 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 678 |
| Todd Gilliland | 91.2 | 5.2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 10.4 | -37 | 4 | 13 | 684 |
| Matt Crafton | 88.7 | 8.8 | 14.2 | 17.6 | 12.0 | -3 | 11 | 3 | 661 |
| Sheldon Creed | 86.3 | 7.2 | 20.8 | 25.2 | 16.8 | -27 | 31 | 81 | 473 |
| Grant Enfinger | 86.0 | 18.4 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 683 |
| Chandler Smith | 82.4 | 10.8 | 14.6 | 15.4 | 17.0 | -37 | 19 | 0 | 679 |
| Johnny Sauter | 82.2 | 11.8 | 18.0 | 14.4 | 15.2 | 13 | 5 | 13 | 662 |
| Tanner Gray | 78.4 | 19.8 | 13.2 | 16.2 | 14.4 | 6 | 14 | 7 | 682 |
| Tyler Ankrum | 77.8 | 15.4 | 13.2 | 18.4 | 14.6 | -8 | 3 | 2 | 671 |
| Carson Hocevar | 77.2 | 10.0 | 17.0 | 14.6 | 17.6 | -8 | 13 | 5 | 683 |
| Derek Kraus | 76.5 | 15.0 | 19.4 | 19.0 | 17.0 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 673 |
| Hailie Deegan | 66.2 | 20.4 | 15.2 | 20.0 | 18.8 | -42 | 6 | 0 | 674 |
| Austin Wayne Self | 65.1 | 13.2 | 18.6 | 17.2 | 18.8 | -44 | 0 | 0 | 680 |
| Ryan Truex | 64.8 | 23.4 | 19.0 | 20.4 | 19.4 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 651 |
| Chase Purdy | 55.4 | 24.8 | 25.2 | 24.8 | 23.0 | -33 | 0 | 4 | 604 |
| Dawson Cram | 49.4 | 27.4 | 23.2 | 25.2 | 25.8 | -67 | 0 | 0 | 674 |
| Danny Bohn | 48.9 | 25.0 | 28.5 | 23.8 | 27.5 | -28 | 1 | 0 | 530 |
| Tate Fogleman | 45.0 | 26.4 | 30.6 | 29.0 | 29.0 | -10 | 2 | 0 | 572 |
| Kris Wright | 44.3 | 19.8 | 25.0 | 26.0 | 28.0 | -42 | 0 | 0 | 543 |
| Cory Roper | 43.9 | 27.3 | 25.5 | 26.8 | 27.5 | -24 | 0 | 0 | 512 |
| Bret Holmes | 41.9 | 33.3 | 30.8 | 33.0 | 29.5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 419 |
| Spencer Boyd | 36.9 | 29.2 | 30.0 | 28.8 | 31.0 | -51 | 0 | 0 | 661 |
| Jennifer Jo Cobb | 31.0 | 35.0 | 36.0 | 33.8 | 35.2 | -15 | 0 | 0 | 555 |
| Norm Benning | 25.4 | 36.0 | 37.8 | 35.8 | 37.3 | -9 | 0 | 0 | 371 |
Betting Targets
Due to Nemechek’s dominance on the 1.5 mile tracks, I am seriously considering a large solo bet on JHN for the outright victory. Obviously solo bets provide a boom or bust betting strategy which I typically try to avoid. However, I believe the statistics support that concept this week for bettors that choose to try to get the best ROI with the overall favorite in their lineup. If you want more diverse betting options, I would consider Austin Hill a strong option with slight dark horse appeal. At roughly 10-1 odds, Hill has the best value on the board especially with the seemingly vacant number of deeper dark horse options in this particular event.
During the playoffs, oftentimes it seems that H2H value is more difficult to identify. After all, most pairings are focused on drivers with mirroring performance trends throughout the season. As a result, I am staying away from some of the playoff drivers this week in the Truck Series. Not only are most on a very even playing field in terms of performance but I would not be surprised to see strategy calls create some volatile movements on the leaderboard. A couple of drivers that are outside of the playoff bubble that I believe will hit value include the likes of Christian Eckes and Tyler Ankrum. Eckes will get to step into the #98 truck that ran great in the spring race this week. Additionally if you look at Eckes’ performance in the Truck Series, his best performances have come on the 1.5 mile tracks. For Tyler Ankrum, I simply like the speed from the #26 team. Though Ankrum has suffered a few bad finishes in recent weeks, the team has a lot of speed and that is what we want in lower-tier H2H options.
Drivers to Fade
As stated earlier, I think Sheldon Creed is legitimate fade material this week considering his performance and GMS Racing’s performance at the 1.5 mile venues this season. I went over several reasons above to fade Creed and I believe it is the sharp play to make. Another option includes a driver that we have not seen in several weeks. After moving from Truck Series competition to full-time Xfinity Series competition, Brett Moffitt will make a long awaited return to the Truck Series this week. Based on Moffitt’s long absence since the start of the year, he will still bring some name appeal to odds makers this week. However, Moffitt will be stepping into the #25 truck for Rackley W.A.R.. This is the same team that has housed driving talents like Timothy Peters, Josh Berry, and other high-profile names this season but has produced minimal results. Ultimately, this team simply does not have fast equipment and we have another ideal situation to fade a high-profile name making his 1st start in several months.
Draftkings Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200 Optimal Lineup
2021 Victoria’s Voice Foundation 200 Betting Picks
*Final*
John Hunter Nemechek +350 (2 units)Austin Hill +900 (1 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Austin Hill -130 over Chandler Smith (2 units)Tanner Gray +130 over Jack Wood (2 units)
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