2021 UNOH 200 Race Picks
- Updated: September 15, 2021
Thursday September 16th, 2021. 9:13PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
The Camping World Truck Series’ playoffs will resume this weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway with a Thursday night spectacle with the running of the UNOH 200. Like the Cup Series, Bristol will serve as an elimination race for the Truck Series’ championship contenders. Currently, Zane Smith and Chandler Smith are the drivers outside of the cutoff line. However, there are numerous drivers within close proximity of the cutoff line which will add some playoff drama to the entertainment. As we keep our eyes on the playoff picture, let’s also discuss a few potential betting opportunities for Thursday’s UNOH 200 at Bristol!
Back in the spring, Bristol Motor Speedway debuted the dirt surface for the first time in history to bring an additional dirt race to NASCAR’s most popular touring series. Because of the dirt race, this weekend’s races at Bristol will constitute the first events this season on the concrete World’s Fastest Half-Mile. Furthermore if you look at the 2021 Truck Series schedule, you may notice that there are not any other tracks that can be considered close comparisons to Bristol. The Truck Series removed Dover from the schedule this year and there have been very few short-tracks in general. As a result, that will make things relatively volatile from an expectations standpoint.
In last year’s Truck Series’ event at Bristol, Sam Mayer delivered one of the biggest upset wins of the season. The part-time GMS driver led 30 laps and overcame Brett Moffitt in the closing laps to steal the victory. If you look back at the history of Bristol in the Truck Series, we have seen a lot of Cup Series drivers earn victories from the likes of Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, and others. With today’s rules that prohibits Cup Series’ drivers from competing during the playoffs combined with increased parity, this is a hard race to predict. Therefore, it will be best to approach Thursday’s UNOH 200 with extreme caution and remain conservative with overall risk exposure.
Betting Targets
By now, we know there is a weekly battle brewing between John Hunter Nemechek and Sheldon Creed for who deserves to be the outright favorite. Nemechek started the season in dominating fashion and has racked up 5 victories on the season. However, Creed has been the driver with momentum with victories in the last two races at Gateway and Darlington. Personally, I believe Nemechek will be the driver to beat this week due to his strong resume at Bristol which includes 3 different 3rd place finishes with his family-owned team. In Kyle Busch Motorsports equipment for the first time at Bristol, Nemechek will be tough to beat.
Since I am not wasting a lot of risk this week on futures (win) bets, I have narrowed my list down to just a few simple targets with Chandler Smith and Grant Enfinger as my primary betting targets. For clarity, I’m not looking at either driver with a high degree of confidence for the outright victory. However, I do believe both drivers provide solid value in H2H formats. Smith has been excellent at Bristol with finishes of 2nd and 5th in just two career starts. Meanwhile, Grant Enfinger is just a really good short-track driver. While I believe Enfinger’s driving style is better for flatter layouts, he has still produced top 10 finishes in all 4 career starts at Bristol. Lastly, I would also throw out Tyler Ankrum as a less-known H2H target option. If you look at Ankrum’s stats, Bristol has been one of his best performing tracks.
Drivers to Fade
My favorite fade option this week is Austin Hill. If you have followed my previews closely, then you will notice I have faded Austin Hill on the short-tracks before because it is not his best skill set. When it comes to Bristol, Hill has been downright bad when you consider his pedigree. In 5 career starts, Hill has posted finishes of 19th, 22nd, 21st, 10th, and 25th. It is not just the finishes either, Hill has failed to post an average driver rating above 85 in any of those races. As a result, this is a prime fade candidate against the upper echelon of driving talent in Thursday’s race.
Draftkings UNOH 200 Optimal Lineup
2021 UNOH 200 Betting Picks
*Final*
John Hunter Nemechek +350 (1 unit)Stewart Friesen +1200 (.5 unit)
Chandler Smith +1400 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Carson Hocevar -105 over Austin Hill (2 units)Chandler Smith -110 over Grant Enfinger (2 units)
Sam Mayer -110 over Matt Crafton (2 units)
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