2021 Firekeepers Casino 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday August 22nd, 2021. 3:15 (EST) at Michigan International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Cup Series will return to the Irish Hills of Michigan International Speedway on Sunday for the running of the Firekeepers Casino 400. With just two races remaining in the regular season, time is running out for drivers to secure their ticket into the Chase for the Cup. Last week, former Cup Series veteran AJ Allmendinger stole a surprise victory away from the drivers competing to lock themselves into the playoffs, at Indianapolis. On Sunday, rest assured the opportunity for another surprise winner hangs in the balance as Michigan’s 2-mile fast layout opens the door for tons of strategy calls which should provide excitement in the closing laps.

Historically, Michigan has produced the highest speeds of any NASCAR venue but the ridiculously fast laps experienced in 2017-2018 have been tamed by the 550 horsepower package that the Cup Series currently uses at the larger tracks. As a result of the rules package, drivers are nearly full throttle around Michigan International Speedway. Drafting will play a factor in Sunday’s race and ultimately this will be a 400 mile fight for track position. Because of the racing this package produces, our betting focus has to be tailored towards the drivers/teams that have produced the best raw aerodynamic speed in 2021. We will discuss some historical data but our betting focus will be geared around the 550hp performance this season.

For example, Kevin Harvick has won 4 of the last 5 races at Michigan International Speedway. In fact, Harvick’s combined loop data (136.9) over the last 5 races may be the highest mark I have ever seen when compiling historical loop data trends. In many ways, Harvick’s success is unsurprising considering the raw speed the #4 team has shown prior to the 2021 season for so many years. With that being said, 2021 has not been a good year for Stewart-Haas Racing especially with the lower horsepower package. The #4 team has shown better speed during the 2nd half of the season with strong runs at Pocono and Kansas. However, I still do perceive Harvick as a big favorite like many people do this week.

Loop Data Stats for Michigan

As I mentioned above, Kevin Harvick has yielded one of the most dominant loop data averages I have witnessed over a 5 race span at any venue. As seen in the opening table below, Harvick is nearly 30 points higher than all other drivers which includes a large group of guys like Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and Martin Truex who have also produced triple digit ratings. Personally, there is not much on this viewpoint of prior races at Michigan that truly surprises me. I believe Kurt Busch deserves a notable mention for producing really strong results at Michigan in recent years despite driving for different teams. On the other side of the spectrum, I believe Alex Bowman should be identified as a driver that has never finished inside the Top 10 in 11 career starts.

With that being said, I would still rather put our focus towards the bottom graph which highlights performance from the 2021 season utilizing the 550hp package. As you will see, Kyle Larson owns the top spot with an average rating of 122.7. Not only has Larson been best under this rules package but he has also won 3 Michigan races in a row from 2016-2016 which clearly earns him the spot for the overall betting favorite. Outside of Larson, few may realize that Kyle Busch has been equally impressive during the 2nd half of the season with the 550hp package. In fact, Busch has finished 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, and 2nd in the last 5 races utilizing this package. Obviously, the provides some value towards Rowdy this week when you consider he is receiving pretty decent odds in comparison to those statistics.

In terms of holistic thoughts involving the 550hp metrics, Hendrick Motorsports as an organization has been really stout this season which raises the value on Chase Elliott, William Byron, and Alex Bowman. Personally, I love the value towards guys like Byron and Bowman. Meanwhile, Stewart-Haas Racing has been everything that is the opposite of Hendrick Motorsports under this package. Besides Harvick, the rest of the SHR brigade ranks outside the top 20 in terms of performance averages this season. Again, I would mention that the performance has been better in recent weeks but SHR is still far from where they need to be as well.

*Data reflect last 5 races at Michigan International Speedway

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kevin Harvick	136.9	6.2	3.4	2.2	5.2	51	174	327	920
Joey Logano	108.4	6.4	8.8	8.2	8.6	-7	38	234	920
Denny Hamlin	106.7	7.2	8.6	5.8	8.0	-11	81	40	920
Kyle Busch	105.8	12.4	7.0	4.6	8.4	56	65	33	920
Brad Keselowski	104.4	10.2	4.8	13.6	10.8	21	58	72	859
Martin Truex Jr	103.0	13.6	12.2	5.4	12.0	79	42	68	920
Kurt Busch	99.3	10.6	8.0	10.2	8.6	59	17	5	920
Ryan Blaney	96.7	11.2	6.2	16.0	10.4	5	42	35	859
Christopher Bell	89.7	18.5	10.0	15.0	13.5	34	9	0	317
Chase Elliott	89.2	13.2	11.6	10.8	12.0	20	22	10	920
Kyle Larson	87.2	18.7	9.0	11.3	14.0	22	21	0	603
Erik Jones	84.1	13.4	9.6	20.0	12.0	-34	13	0	916
Alex Bowman	82.9	12.2	12.0	19.2	12.8	-35	17	0	913
Aric Almirola	80.8	6.8	14.2	15.8	14.8	9	24	10	913
Austin Dillon	76.0	20.6	13.2	16.4	16.2	-7	17	12	919
William Byron	73.0	14.0	19.0	17.6	17.2	11	8	2	907
Daniel Suarez	69.5	24.2	21.0	14.0	20.0	-19	10	1	920
Ryan Newman	68.5	17.0	26.0	15.2	19.4	25	3	12	920
Tyler Reddick	66.0	8.5	25.5	21.0	20.0	-7	4	0	317
Matt DiBenedetto	63.8	21.4	23.6	17.4	20.4	-11	1	0	919
Chris Buescher	63.6	20.4	20.2	18.0	19.4	49	7	0	920
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	62.2	21.0	21.2	23.2	19.6	-26	2	0	919
Cole Custer	62.2	25.0	17.0	29.5	19.5	39	1	0	304
Bubba Wallace	60.3	22.2	21.6	21.6	20.8	-35	0	0	916
Ryan Preece	57.9	29.3	23.5	18.3	22.8	36	1	0	720
Michael McDowell	48.4	25.0	27.4	26.2	26.0	-32	1	0	918
Corey LaJoie	44.3	30.6	30.8	25.6	28.2	-27	1	0	757
Quin Houff	33.3	29.8	33.8	30.5	33.3	-53	2	0	708
Garrett Smithley	29.3	35.0	36.0	33.2	35.0	-2	4	0	878

*Data reflects all races in 2021 using 550hp rules package

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Kyle Larson	122.7	9.8	7.0	7.0	5.5	107	349	851	2056
Kyle Busch	113.6	14.0	6.9	3.4	7.5	116	158	172	2056
William Byron	107.9	10.9	9.1	8.1	7.4	36	165	183	2055
Denny Hamlin	103.0	9.0	10.0	8.6	8.5	57	66	98	2056
Brad Keselowski	100.2	9.8	12.1	10.4	10.3	41	113	183	2052
Alex Bowman	98.1	14.8	9.6	9.3	10.3	27	65	39	2054
Ryan Blaney	97.1	15.8	13.4	10.6	10.9	20	90	28	2055
Martin Truex Jr	95.0	7.6	10.6	10.6	9.8	54	75	62	2047
Kevin Harvick	91.6	7.3	17.0	8.8	12.6	58	56	0	2055
Chase Elliott	90.1	10.4	11.0	14.8	12.9	111	82	61	1950
Kurt Busch	88.3	11.8	16.6	18.3	14.4	-31	115	157	1582
Tyler Reddick	84.7	16.8	11.9	11.5	14.4	6	51	13	2053
Joey Logano	83.9	11.6	12.4	14.9	12.9	-99	38	37	2052
Austin Dillon	83.9	13.1	15.6	11.5	14.1	40	41	1	2056
Chris Buescher	78.2	16.8	15.5	13.9	15.6	-12	63	76	2056
Christopher Bell	74.9	8.6	16.5	19.6	16.0	-105	38	6	2044
Matt DiBenedetto	74.1	22.4	16.3	17.0	15.6	-32	12	2	2051
Bubba Wallace	71.7	17.4	19.5	17.4	18.1	27	19	5	2049
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	68.2	12.3	18.8	21.5	18.8	-33	15	23	1936
Daniel Suarez	65.5	18.4	19.3	18.5	20.3	-7	17	14	2034
Michael McDowell	65.2	12.5	15.1	17.3	18.6	-78	16	21	2048
Ross Chastain	64.1	19.5	20.9	23.1	21.0	-20	16	10	2011
Ryan Newman	63.7	23.5	23.0	21.0	21.4	-19	30	0	2013
Aric Almirola	60.9	18.1	17.6	24.3	20.8	-41	4	8	1955
Erik Jones	57.6	22.6	24.6	22.4	22.6	-3	28	0	2044
Chase Briscoe	57.2	22.6	24.4	20.6	22.5	-14	2	0	2050
Ryan Preece	55.3	22.3	19.8	21.9	23.1	8	18	1	2040
Cole Custer	53.5	22.1	20.4	23.8	23.1	-5	0	1	1932
Corey LaJoie	47.1	28.1	23.9	28.6	26.5	-9	29	0	1843
Anthony Alfredo	46.4	27.4	22.4	26.1	26.6	-30	2	4	2039
Cody Ware	36.4	31.1	32.0	30.9	31.0	-35	0	0	2004
B.J. McLeod	35.5	32.5	32.5	31.1	31.9	-35	0	0	2002
Quin Houff	30.8	34.8	33.1	33.6	33.5	-31	0	0	1986
Josh Bilicki	27.3	34.9	36.0	35.3	35.8	-13	0	0	1936

Betting Targets

In terms of the outright victory, I believe bettors could lay money on Kyle Larson and Kyle Busch in just two bets to feel confident about their possibility of cashing a winning ticket. Busch obviously provides the best betting value. Still, I really think this is an opportunity for both drivers to get the track position out in front of the field and potentially hold onto it throughout the afternoon. The difficult decision for this race is do you want to take the top two favorites or implement some variance into your betting card? Michigan is a race track that will provide the opportunity for surprise winners whether it is through strategy or just late-race track position. As a result, it’s hard to ignore the value of some of the drivers deepers in the field.

Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin are excellent pivot choices among the top-tier drivers. Hamlin is a two-time winner at Michigan and has performed relatively well with the 550hp package. Like a broken record, I will continue to state Hamlin is long overdue for a victory. I thought we had Hamlin selected for a winner last week at Indianapolis but things did not fall our way. Meanwhile, Elliott has been a really strong driver at Michigan historically and has the Hendrick Motorsports power to go after a win this week. In 10 starts, Elliott has produced 9 Top 10 finishes including 3 straight runner-up finishes in his first 3 starts in the Irish Hills. I know some people may ask about Harvick (5) and Joey Logano (3) who have combined for 8 victories at Michigan. However, I simply don’t either drivers chances this week especially considering their current betting odds.

If I am going to look for true value in the form of futures (win) odds or H2H match-ups, I believe Kurt Busch and Alex Bowman have the most undervalued odds in the field. I mentioned earlier that Bowman does not have a single finish inside the Top 10 in 11 career starts and perhaps that is exactly why the #48 is receiving 20-1 odds despite having the 2nd most wins (3) in the Cup Series this season. More importantly, I love Hendrick Motorsports’ performance with the 550 package right now and therefore cannot ignore the value that Bowman presents. Meanwhile, Kurt Busch has been an excellent driver at Michigan throughout his career with 3 former victories and has proven to be best on the bigger surfaces this season. The elder Busch is getting near 30-1 odds at a track where he could definitely have a Kansas style performance!

Drivers to Fade

Martin Truex Jr has produced finishes of 3rd, 3rd, 4th, and 3rd in his last 4 starts at Michigan which is 2nd in averages behind Kevin Harvick. However, I am not convinced that Truex deserves to be the 3rd overall favorite this week behind Larson and Busch. All 3 of Truex’s wins have come with the 750hp package and Truex ranks 8th in our loop data ratings under the 550hp performance. Obviously, this does not make Truex an outright fade but I do believe he is overvalued which may create some H2H opportunities.

For outright fades, Erik Jones is one of the names at the top of my list in terms of low-tier options. Jones was never really good in JGR equipment at Michigan and the #43 team simply does not have any respectable aerodynamic speed. I think Jones provides a solid fade option despite the talent level. Meanwhile, I also have Joey Logano and Christopher Bell under the microscope this week. Both drivers have really struggled under the 550hp package. Logano has several wins on the season and has a great Michigan resume which should provide pivot potential. Meanwhile, I have noticed odds-makers have been increasing Bell’s H2H value in recent weeks due to his road course racing success. However, Bell has not shown the same strength at these bigger venues and I believe that could be an opportunistic fade for bettors going into Sunday.

Draftkings 2021 Firekeepers Casino 400 Optimal Lineup

2021 Firekeepers Casino 400 Betting Picks

*Final*

Kyle Busch +650 (1 unit)
Chase Elliott +800 (.75 unit)
Denny Hamlin +1200 (.75 unit)
Alex Bowman +2000 (.5 unit)
Kurt Busch +3000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Chase Elliott -115 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)
Kurt Busch +115 over Christopher Bell (2 units)
Brad Keselowski Top Ford Driver and Chase Elliott Top Chevy Driver +1800 (.5 unit) *Odds courtesy of Bovada