2021 Pennzoil 150 Race Picks
- Updated: August 13, 2021
Saturday August 14th, 4:00PM (EST) at Indianapolis Motor Speedway G.P.
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
Once again NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will feature road course racing this weekend with the running of the Pennzoil 150 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The Xfinity Series competed on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix (road course) for the first time last season which set the stage for this weekend’s races that will also include the Cup Series’ debut on Sunday. In last year’s inaugural event, Chase Briscoe led 30 of 62 laps en route to victory and now the Xfinity Series is set to return on Saturday for their 6th road course event of the season.
Last week, rookie Ty Gibbs earned his 3rd victory of the season at Watkins Glen. The victory was Gibbs 2nd this season at the road courses going back to his first career win at Daytona in February. Gibbs has quickly become one of the sports’ brightest young talents and has shown a tremendous talent for this specific style of racing. In fact, we could argue that Gibbs has been the best driver among the non-Cup Series drivers in the Xfinity Series this season which is really surprising when you consider the phenomenal road course talents of Austin Cindric and AJ Allmendinger who compete on a weekly basis in the Xfinity Series. However, Gibbs leads all drivers with an outstanding 127.9 average rating through his 4 starts this season at the road course venues and will once again be among the betting favorites when the green flag waves.
Perhaps more surprising than Gibbs rising success at the road courses is the fact that Austin Cindric is still winless this season at the road courses. Cindric was once labeled as a driver that could only win on the road courses. However, the reigning series champion has 3 victories this season which have all been produced on the ovals. Cindric has been the overall betting favorite in every road course event this season but has not exactly delivered from an expectations standpoint with finishes of 2nd, 5th, 14th, 8th, and 3rd most recently at the Glen. Cindric has led more laps (93) than any other driver in the Xfinity Series at the road courses but to this point has not produced the finishes that most have expected.
Road Course Loop Data
Last week, I provided a full loop data breakdown of all the road course races in the Xfinity Series this season and I have updated that view to include last week’s results at Watkins Glen. As you can see, Ty Gibbs has clearly taken the lead away from Cindric and Allmendinger with the best average rating. Outside of that particular notable mention, there have not been many changes to our overall loop data observations.
I have included Kevin Harvick in the analytical view this week. Harvick will be making his 3rd start for B.J McLeod Motorsports this weekend. Harvick competed at both Circuit of the Americas and Road America which were 1st time events for the Cup Series. Therefore, it makes sense that Harvick will return to the Xfinity Series this week for another opportunity to prepare for Sunday’s Verizon 200 as he looks to gain some experience on this new layout. Despite running for an inferior team with B.J. McLeod Motorsports, it is worth noting that Harvick has produced quality finishes of 4th and 6th in his prior two starts this season which is really impressive when you consider the equipment aspect.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Laps | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Gibbs | 127.9 | 8.3 | 1.8 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 1 | 39 | 75 | 250 |
| Austin Cindric | 122.8 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 108 | 50 | 93 | 307 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 118.9 | 6.8 | 15.8 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 110 | 50 | 48 | 294 |
| Justin Allgaier | 101.0 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 16.0 | 10.4 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 296 |
| Justin Haley | 100.8 | 12.6 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 100 | 4 | 10 | 307 |
| Kevin Harvick | 100.2 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 91 |
| Harrison Burton | 99.0 | 6.2 | 16.4 | 12.0 | 12.0 | -56 | 6 | 6 | 248 |
| Daniel Hemric | 92.9 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 13.6 | 12.6 | -20 | 7 | 12 | 307 |
| Jeb Burton | 87.8 | 6.8 | 14.2 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 307 |
| Brandon Jones | 87.6 | 21.4 | 13.8 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 33 | 4 | 5 | 307 |
| Michael Annett | 82.5 | 22.6 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 14.8 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 307 |
| Riley Herbst | 78.2 | 19.6 | 13.8 | 19.2 | 16.8 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 266 |
| Myatt Snider | 75.3 | 15.8 | 10.6 | 20.2 | 13.8 | -20 | 1 | 0 | 307 |
| Andy Lally | 75.1 | 19.8 | 16.3 | 16.8 | 15.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 224 |
| Brett Moffitt | 72.0 | 14.6 | 19.8 | 22.2 | 15.8 | -50 | 1 | 0 | 300 |
| Brandon Brown | 71.9 | 12.0 | 17.6 | 12.6 | 17.6 | -26 | 0 | 0 | 307 |
| Jeremy Clements | 68.0 | 16.0 | 18.4 | 22.0 | 19.2 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 296 |
| Josh Williams | 67.3 | 23.8 | 18.3 | 14.5 | 19.8 | -44 | 0 | 0 | 261 |
| Sam Mayer | 64.6 | 23.0 | 21.0 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 94 |
| Alex Labbe | 64.1 | 20.8 | 19.0 | 22.6 | 20.4 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 253 |
| Noah Gragson | 62.8 | 21.2 | 23.8 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 31 | 0 | 4 | 196 |
| Preston Pardus | 62.5 | 27.0 | 16.2 | 22.2 | 19.8 | -52 | 0 | 0 | 300 |
| Jade Buford | 62.4 | 18.4 | 20.4 | 23.8 | 21.4 | -6 | 0 | 0 | 260 |
| Ryan Sieg | 62.2 | 24.6 | 21.6 | 20.2 | 21.8 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 307 |
| Kyle Weatherman | 53.7 | 22.7 | 25.0 | 25.3 | 22.3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 209 |
| Landon Cassill | 52.3 | 23.2 | 26.4 | 20.2 | 24.4 | -17 | 0 | 0 | 307 |
| Gray Gaulding | 51.2 | 31.7 | 27.3 | 21.7 | 24.3 | -49 | 0 | 1 | 180 |
| Tommy Joe Martins | 47.3 | 25.4 | 25.8 | 26.4 | 26.6 | -70 | 0 | 0 | 209 |
| Kris Wright | 46.8 | 27.4 | 25.8 | 24.8 | 26.2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 283 |
| Spencer Pumpelly | 44.3 | 17.0 | 26.5 | 27.5 | 25.5 | -35 | 0 | 0 | 57 |
| Stephen Leicht | 42.3 | 35.0 | 28.0 | 27.7 | 28.3 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 183 |
| Colby Howard | 41.5 | 30.0 | 28.0 | 26.0 | 27.8 | -37 | 0 | 0 | 261 |
| Bayley Currey | 38.5 | 36.0 | 30.7 | 33.7 | 30.3 | -22 | 0 | 0 | 166 |
Friday Practice Notes
These standalone practices at new venues can often be misleading. For example, we witnessed Chase Elliott struggle at Road America in practice but improved with every lap in race conditions which eventually resulted in another victory. We have seen similar circumstances unfold throughout the year in all series therefore practice results can only be given value when in consideration with other betting angles. With that in mind, the Kaulig Racing duo of Justin Haley and AJ Allmendinger stood out the most in practice in terms of my baseline expectations. Austin Cindric posted some fast laps to indicate he will be in the thick of things but Allmendinger appeared to be the class of the field which is not surprising when you consider how well he competed in this race last year.
Perhaps the biggest surprise throughout the 50 minute session revolved around Sam Mayer who finished 2nd on the leaderboard behind Cindric with a fast lap of 94.965mph. I have included Mayer in my fade category in the last several weeks which has produced a 100% success rate. However, we may have to back away from fading Mayer this week as he produced his best practice session of the year and perhaps is on the verge of turning the corner. Among other rapid fire observations: Kevin Harvick struggled early but posted a fast time after following Cindric around for a lap. I still think Harvick’s ceiling is rather limited in this event due to the equipment factor. Will Rodgers showed surprising speed in the #24 for Sam Hunt Racing. Meanwhile, Harrison Burton, Ty Gibbs, and Jeremy Clements were among the more well-known road course talents that had a relatively forgettable practice session.
Betting Targets
Though I think Austin Cindric remains due for a road course victory, he simply does not deserve the betting odds he continues to receive at these events. Cindric is receiving Kyle Busch type Xfinity Series odds at the 1/4th the win rate and I simply can’t justify taking the #22 based on his current value. Personally, I think AJ Allmendinger may be the driver to beat. I felt like Allmendinger would be the sharp pick going into the weekend and his speed in practice strengthened that perspective despite running just a handful of laps. For potential dark horse candidates, not much has changed since last week’s race at Watkins Glen. Justin Allgaier likely remains the 3rd best option and perhaps a bit under the radar. Meanwhile, Justin Haley is a driver to target in all betting formats on the heels of 3 straight top 10 finishes. Haley was really strong in practice and remains one of the top performing Xfinity Series’ regulars on the season among the road course races.
Similar to last week’s race at Watkins Glen, I believe our best betting opportunities will come in the form of match-ups on Saturday. Despite missing the winner last Sunday, we still profited due to the fact we were able to go 3-0 in match-ups. I believe there will be sharp value again this week and hopefully things will go our way once again. For bettors, I would strongly consider Justin Haley and Brett Moffitt among the sharp H2H options on Saturday. I mentioned earlier in the loop data and again in the practice observations all of the signs that point to Haley’s potential on Saturday.
For Brett Moffitt, he has experienced some awful luck at the road courses this year and I feel like he is being grossly undervalued this week. Despite having inferior equipment to the top teams in the Xfinity Series, Moffitt has still produced top 10 finishes in 7 of 20 starts this season and looked really solid again in Friday’s lone practice session. If Moffitt is paired against bottom-tier talent, he will be a driver to target without question. A couple of additional targets to consider based on perception vs. potential include Justin Allgaier and Preston Pardus.
Drivers to Fade
The Indianapolis Motor Speedway G.P. is not an extremely difficult road course compared to some of the others on the schedule. In many ways, this layout is familiar to last week’s racing at Watkins Glen. The track produces speeds that are fast enough to consider horsepower/equipment but lap times will still be heavily influenced by driver input. With that combination in mind, I believe Noah Gragson and Jeremy Clements continue to be overvalued at these events. Gragson has produced bad luck and subpar performances yet continues to be paired against more favorable betting options. I mentioned Clements last week as a driver that has continuously been overvalued due to his road course reputation and I believe that narrative still applies this week.
Lastly, I will keep Kevin Harvick on my fade list just in case odds-makers make the mistake of pairing him with some of the top threats. I mentioned earlier that Harvick has produced really good results with B.J McLeod Motorsports but some of those finishes were aided by racing conditions. Harvick’s ceiling is a 5-7th place finish under normal conditions therefore Harvick is mistakenly paired against guys like Cindric, Gibbs, Allmendinger, Allgaier, or even Harrison Burton; we could have a fade opportunity if given the right odds value.
Draftkings Pennzoil 150 Optimal Lineup
2021 Pennzoil 150 Race Picks
*Important Update: Chase Elliott will be driving the #1 car for Michael Annett. Obviously, Elliott is the best road course talent in the sport so this is a significant update. I cannot change my futures (win) picks but still like the value in the options below. Hopefully everyone will get even better odds if you have not locked in plays previously.
Final AJ Allmendinger +300 (1 unit)Justin Allgaier +1500 (.5 unit)
Justin Haley +2200 (.5 unit)
Match-Ups and Props
Justin Allgaier -135 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)Justin Haley -110 over Harrison Burton (2 units)
Brandon Jones -130 over Austin Dillon (2 units)
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