2021 Skrewball Peanut Butter Whisky 200 Race Picks
- Updated: August 6, 2021
Saturday August 7th, 4:00PM (EST) at Watkins Glen
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
The 2nd leg of Saturday’s double header at Watkins Glen will take place when the Xfinity Series waves the green flag for the Skrewball Peanut Butter Whiskey 200. Shortly after the Truck Series makes their first return to Watkins Glen in over two decades, the Xfinity Series will hold their first race at the historic 2.45 mile road course layout since the 2019 season. In the last trip to Watkins Glen, reigning series champion Austin Cindric earned the first victory of his career. As many are aware, Cindric has become one of the hottest drivers in the Xfinity Series with 10 victories over the past two seasons and his prestigious road course pedigree will put him in the overall favorite category yet again on Saturday.
For bettors, Saturday’s Xfinity Series race at another road course should feel like the new norm. After all, this weekend’s trip to Watkins Glen will officially be the 5th race of the season for Xfinity Series’ competitors at a road course venue. The previous winners included Ty Gibbs at Daytona, Kyle Busch at Circuit of the Americas and Road America, and AJ Allmendinger at Mid-Ohio. Surprisingly, neither Austin Cindric nor Justin Allgaier have found victory lane this season at the road courses. Cindric is among the best road course talents in the entire sport and Allgaier has shown solid road course skills throughout his career. Both drivers will have the luxury of starting on the front row on Saturday which should boost their chances but plenty of things can happen over the course of 82 laps.
Among the notable entries into Saturday’s Skrewball Peanut Butter Whiskey 200 include Cup Series veterans Austin Dillon and Erik Jones. Ty Gibbs also makes his return to the #54 car with Joe Gibbs Racing. Oddly enough, Gibbs is the biggest threat to challenge for the victory compared to the Cup Series drivers. Both Jones and Dillon will be competing in less than stellar equipment. Not to mention, neither driver is exactly known for their road course talents. Gibbs on the other hand has been stellar in his limited opportunities this season winning at both the Daytona Road Course and again at Charlotte. Perhaps the biggest challenge for Gibbs this week will be his lack of experience. Gibbs has never raced at Watkins Glen in any NASCAR sanctioned events. However, Gibbs will be competing in Friday’s ARCA race at Watkins Glen and perhaps that will give him some momentum going into Saturday from an experience standpoint.
Road Course Loop Data
I compiled loop data metrics for all 4 road course events this season to provide a performance foundation for Saturday’s race. To nobody’s surprise, Austin Cindric leads all drivers with a 121.6 average rating despite still searching for that first road course victory of the season. Ty Gibbs continues to impress in every way with the 2nd best average rating in his 3 starts. Meanwhile, Justin Haley is the driver that stands out to me based on preliminary expectations. I rarely think of Haley as a top road course driver but he is in the top 3 drivers in most major categories including average finishing position and average running position.
Aside from the obvious call-outs which also include great results from AJ Allmendinger who is a former Cup Series winner at Watkins Glen, I am not sure if there are too many surprises on our list. Perhaps one of the bigger surprises among the less popular names is the awful results from Jeremy Clements. Clements is a former road course winner (Road America) in the Xfinity Series and has a solid road course pedigree. After finishing 10th in the 1st road course event of the season at Daytona, Clements has failed to crack the top 20 in the other 3 events which appears to be more performance related and that opens the door for fade opportunities.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Cindric | 121.6 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 89 | 33 | 71 | 225 |
| Ty Gibbs | 120.7 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 5 | 18 | 32 | 168 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 117.7 | 7.0 | 19.5 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 81 | 38 | 42 | 212 |
| Justin Haley | 102.5 | 14.5 | 8.5 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 85 | 4 | 10 | 225 |
| Justin Allgaier | 98.7 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 33 | 4 | 8 | 214 |
| Harrison Burton | 98.4 | 6.8 | 17.0 | 13.8 | 12.8 | -39 | 5 | 3 | 166 |
| Daniel Hemric | 93.5 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 13.0 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 225 |
| Jeb Burton | 86.1 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 225 |
| Brandon Jones | 82.6 | 21.5 | 13.3 | 11.0 | 13.5 | 56 | 4 | 4 | 225 |
| Michael Annett | 81.2 | 23.8 | 14.3 | 9.0 | 15.0 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 225 |
| Miguel Paludo | 77.0 | 26.3 | 19.3 | 22.7 | 18.7 | -24 | 0 | 0 | 159 |
| Riley Herbst | 75.7 | 22.0 | 15.8 | 20.8 | 17.8 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 184 |
| Andy Lally | 75.1 | 19.8 | 16.3 | 16.8 | 15.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 224 |
| Myatt Snider | 74.6 | 18.0 | 8.5 | 21.5 | 13.5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 225 |
| Brett Moffitt | 71.7 | 16.0 | 20.3 | 21.3 | 16.0 | -59 | 1 | 0 | 218 |
| Alex Labbe | 69.6 | 19.5 | 14.0 | 18.5 | 16.8 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 225 |
| Brandon Brown | 69.3 | 11.5 | 19.0 | 12.8 | 18.3 | -19 | 0 | 0 | 225 |
| Jeremy Clements | 66.3 | 17.0 | 20.3 | 23.5 | 19.8 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 214 |
| Josh Williams | 66.1 | 25.3 | 20.0 | 14.7 | 19.7 | -26 | 0 | 0 | 179 |
| Ryan Sieg | 63.8 | 27.5 | 19.3 | 20.8 | 20.0 | -18 | 0 | 3 | 225 |
| Preston Pardus | 62.7 | 25.0 | 15.0 | 22.0 | 19.3 | -44 | 0 | 0 | 218 |
| Jade Buford | 61.8 | 19.0 | 19.5 | 24.5 | 21.8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 178 |
| Cody Ware | 55.4 | 25.3 | 22.3 | 21.3 | 22.7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 179 |
| Noah Gragson | 52.9 | 23.8 | 28.5 | 28.3 | 28.0 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 114 |
| Gray Gaulding | 51.2 | 31.7 | 27.3 | 21.7 | 24.3 | -49 | 0 | 1 | 180 |
| Landon Cassill | 51.0 | 24.0 | 25.8 | 20.3 | 24.8 | -7 | 0 | 0 | 225 |
| Ryan Ellis | 47.9 | 29.0 | 25.3 | 27.3 | 25.7 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 166 |
| Kris Wright | 43.6 | 28.3 | 25.8 | 26.8 | 26.8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 201 |
| Timmy Hill | 43.3 | 24.7 | 31.7 | 29.0 | 28.3 | -20 | 0 | 0 | 120 |
| Colby Howard | 42.9 | 29.7 | 27.3 | 24.3 | 27.0 | -15 | 0 | 0 | 180 |
| Tommy Joe Martins | 42.6 | 27.5 | 27.3 | 28.3 | 28.3 | -53 | 0 | 0 | 127 |
Betting Targets
Honestly, I think the return to Watkins Glen sets up perfectly for Austin Cindric to get an overdue road course victory. To play devil’s advocate, I have thought that previously this season as well. Still, Watkins Glen stylistically tailors to Cindric’s driving style with multiple sharp turns where corner exit will be critical. The only other person that has the exact elite skill set is AJ Allmendinger. My only problem with Allmendinger is he has been a touch inconsistent in these races. Nevertheless, both Cindric and Allmendinger are the top two undeniable threats to win Saturday’s race.
Ty Gibbs posted a solid 3rd place finish in Friday’s ARCA race at Watkins Glen though I’m not sure if I am confident enough to pick him for the victory at mere 4.5 to 1 odds. Still, Gibbs is a viable option to upset the heavy favorites in Cindric and Allmendinger. I think Justin Allgaier is probably the better betting option. Allgaier has literally improved in every start of his career at Watkins Glen and most recently posted back to back 3rd place finishes in 2018 and 2019. Allgaier has built a lot of momentum in recent weeks and is likely the best underdog option on the card.
The best betting opportunities will inevitably come from H2H match-ups. Personally, I have Justin Haley pegged as an opportunistic target. As mentioned earlier, Haley has been really strong on the road courses and is usually paired against 2nd-tier drivers in match-ups. Another sharp H2H target includes Harrison Burton in the #20 car. I believe Burton has some outright underdog appeal at 33-1 odds but can be considered in all betting formats. Burton has finished 6th or better in 3 of the 4 road course events this season which is the consistency you want among betting targets. Oddly enough those are the only true targets I have at this time. I actually have more drivers that I am looking to fade this week but have to observe the H2H pairings before deciding if we can pull the trigger on those fades.
Drivers to Fade
If you go back and look at the last several previews, I have been pretty consistent towards fading Sam Mayer in his part-time starts with JR Motorsports and I believe that angle is in play again on Saturday. Mayer has crashed out in 2 of the last 3 starts and road course racing is not in his range of experience. Therefore, consider Mayer a fade opportunity as he continues to be overvalued. Additional drivers that deserve similar considerations include Jeremy Clements as described above in the loop data. I also always consider Brandon Jones as a prime fade candidate at the road courses because he is simply not good at this style of racing and sometimes we can find pairings against some of the top drivers.
Draftkings Skrewball Peanut Butter Whiskey 200 Optimal Lineup
2021 Skrewball Peanut Butter Whiskey 200 Race Picks
*Final*
Austin Cindric +175 (2 units)Justin Allgaier +900 (.75 unit)
Harrison Burton +3300 (.5 unit)
Match-Ups and Props
Harrison Burton -130 over Austin Dillon (3 units)Justin Allgaier +125 over Daniel Hemric (2 units)
Myatt Snider -115 over Jeremy Clements (2 units)
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