2021 United Rentals 176 Race Picks
- Updated: August 6, 2021
Saturday August 7th, 2021. 12:30PM (EST) at Watkins Glen
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
After a month-long hiatus, the Camping World Truck Series will return to action on Saturday to kick off a double header at Watkins Glen. Saturday’s running of the United Rentals 176 will mark the Truck Series’ first race at Watkins Glen in more than two decades. The Truck Series previously competed for a brief stretch at Watkins Glen from 1996-2000 and will now rekindle some of the road course magic at one of NASCAR’s most notorious road course venues. Find out our thoughts in the Truck Series’ return to Watkins Glen in our 2021 United Rentals 176 race picks!
Unlike the Xfinity and Cup Series, the Camping World Truck Series has a much smaller sample size at the road courses this season. In fact, the Truck Series has held just two races at road courses this season stemming from prior events at Daytona and Circuit of the Americas. Ben Rhodes and Todd Gilliland were relatively surprising winners in both of those races and perhaps Saturday’s United Rentals 176 will offer the possibility of witnessing another underdog style victory. From an entry list standpoint, there are several notable mentions that will be competing.
The promising upcoming talent in 16 year old Taylor Gray makes his 1st CWTS start with Team DGR. Josh Berry returns to the #25 truck with Rackley W.A.R. Sam Mayer will be behind the wheel of the #32 truck with Bret Holmes Racing. Corey Heim will make his 2nd start with Kyle Busch Motorsports and former Cup Series driver Paul Menard will be behind the wheel of #66 truck. Perhaps the most significant change to the entry list includes AJ Allmendinger who will be replacing Chase Purdy in the #24 truck. Purdy tested positive for COVID-19 which leaves the opportunity for the former Cup Series winner at Watkins Glen to take over the #24 truck. The late change to the driver of the #24 truck could shake up Saturday’s expectations. Allmendinger was not even listed in the odds breakdown early Friday and now the best road course talent in the field will occupy a seat within GMS Racing that definitely has the equipment to find victory lane.
United Rentals 176 Betting Breakdown
Despite the fact the Truck Series has not competed at Watkins Glen in more than two decades, teams nor drivers will have the luxury of practices this weekend. Therefore, we must rely on prior observations at Daytona and Circuit of the Americas to establish a potential baseline. Through those two events, Sheldon Creed has clearly been the best driver in terms of averages. Creed has an average running position of 3rd combined with a 130 plus average driver rating. Creed won the inaugural Truck Series race at Daytona in 2020 and is probably the best road course talent in the field sans AJ Allmendinger.
Obviously, the next best options are the likes of John Hunter Nemechek and Todd Gilliland. Nemechek has the experience and potential to attack Watkins Glen in an attempt to earn his 6th victory of the season. However, Nemechek’s performance at the road courses do not correlate with the favorite style betting odds he is receiving. While he is plenty good enough to win, it’s a pass situation from a betting standpoint. Meanwhile, I do believe Todd Gilliland remains a viable option. I was lucky enough to cash in on Gilliland’s win at Circuit of the Americas at 14-1 odds. For Saturday’s United Rentals 176, those odds have been slashed to less than half that previous value. I remain optimistic for Gilliland’s chances just wish there was slightly better value.
For H2H and fantasy purposes, I believe Kaz Grala and Corey Heim offer some sharp value this week. Grala is a really good road course talent that often gets overlooked and scored a runner-up finish back at Circuit of the Americas after averaging a 3rd place running position at the most difficult road course on the schedule. Corey Heim disappointed in his debut with Kyle Busch Motorsports back at Darlington and I don’t think people realize that this kid has serious talent. Heim also won Friday’s ARCA race at Watkins Glen which proves he can get the job done. I don’t necessarily expect Heim to win Saturday’s United Rentals 176 but he could easily pull some value in the form of H2H/fantasy purposes. Lastly, don’t overlook guys like Austin Hill and Tyler Ankrum as potential low profile H2H plays if given the optimal pairings.
Drivers to Fade
I am not exactly focusing on fading John Hunter Nemechek but will consider the options in pairing with tremendous plus value. I simply believe JHN is overrated based on his road course skill set and will consider fade opportunities if significant underdog value is given. Other fade options that are usually reliable at road courses in the Truck Series include fading guys like Johnny Sauter and Tanner Gray. Both Sauter and Gray have consistently struggled at these particular layouts. Meanwhile, I believe Josh Berry is an excellent fade option for Saturday as well. Berry will be driving subpar equipment and continues to be overvalued due to his performances earlier this season in the Xfinity Series.
Draftkings United Rentals 176 Optimal Lineup
2021 United Rentals 176 Betting Picks
*Final*
Sheldon Creed +550 (1 unit)Kaz Grala +1000 (.75 unit)
Austin Hill +2200 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Austin Hill -110 over Sam Mayer (3 units)Corey Heim -115 over Tyler Ankrum (2 units)
Derek Kraus -130 over Josh Berry (2 units)
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