2021 Ambetter Get Vaccinated 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 17th, 3:0`s`0PM (EST) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Last week, Kyle Busch earned his 5th Xfinity Series win of the season at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Rowdy finished a perfect 5 for 5 on the season in terms of starts and victories. In recent weeks, Busch has stolen the spotlight on a near weekly basis with 4 victories in the last 5 races. Luckily for Xfinity Series regulars, Busch has used up his eligibility in the Xfinity Series this year and he will step aside from the #54 car for this weekend’s trip to Loudon. However, Busch’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate in the form of Christopher Bell will step into the #54 machine to make his first start in the Xfinity Series since 2019 in Saturday’s Ambetter Get Vaccinated 200 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Bell is currently listed as the overall betting favorite this week despite not competing in the Xfinity Series in nearly two years. While I would contend that the betting odds for Bell are slightly exaggerated, I do not disagree with ranking Bell as Saturday’s overall favorite. Bell steps into the #54 car that has earned more victories than any other team this season between Kyle Busch and Ty Gibbs. More importantly, Bell is a masterful short track talent. In two career starts in Loudon in Xfinity Series competition, Bell earned two victories at the Magic Mile. Perhaps with more Cup Series experience under his belt, Bell should be an even stronger driver as he seeks the hat trick on New Hampshire on Saturday.

Along with Bell’s presence this week, we have other notable mentions that will be making part-time starts this week in the likes of Josh Berry and Sam Mayer. Berry makes an unexpected return to JR. Motorsports on the heels of his surprise victory at Martinsville earlier this year. Berry piloted the #8 machine to the victory at Martinsville and that will be ride Sam Mayer has the privilege of piloting this week. Berry’s scheduled races with JR Motorsports had run its course for the 2021 season but he will get another opportunity as he will be replacing full-time Xfinity Series driver Michael Annett who has been sidelined with a leg injury.

When I look through the entry list, I don’t see many drivers that I feel absolutely confident in that will be ready to overthrow Christopher Bell this week. Among the Xfinity Series regulars, I would probably label Justin Allgaier the best short-track talent especially on the flatter surfaces. Austin Cindric has been the best Xfinity Series regular overall this season and it was just recently announced that he will be joining Team Penske in 2021. However, Cindric does not have the greatest short-track resume in terms of performance to justify his current betting odds. In fact, I think the overall consensus is that most of the top betting favorites lack the proven record to justify their odds. Harrison Burton and Noah Gragson are some potential value options but it is my opinion that the majority of drivers are overvalued this week.

Betting Strategy

As stated above, I would advise bettors to proceed with caution for Saturday’s Ambetter Get Vaccinated 200. The Xfinity Series has not visited New Hampshire Motor Speedway since the 2019 season and there are not many races on the schedule the provides a strong baseline of expectations. Unlike the Cup Series where we can evaluate performance under different rules packages and have several short-track races on the schedule, the Xfinity Series has not visited a track that even compares to New Hampshire since the first week of April at Martinsville. As a result, I’m not convinced this particular race provides an advantageous spot for bettors. Therefore, I will be tempering my picks for Saturday with bigger focus/expectations for Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301!

Betting Targets

For the outright win, you have to side with Christopher Bell despite the minimal value. Bell will be starting from the 14th position and New Hampshire Motor Speedway is a very difficult track for passing. Therefore, it may take Bell some time to get to the front but if he can keep his nose clean; I expect he will be the car to beat. For betting purposes, Justin Allgaier and Harrison Burton are your best options in all formats. At 6-1 odds, Allgaier has enough value to bet for the outright victory and provide a pivot option against Bell. Burton is likely my favorite H2H option in the field on Saturday because he always runs well at these shorter/flatter venues.

For low-tier H2H options, don’t overlook Jeb Burton and Brett Moffitt. Burton has been running extremely well in recent weeks and it has largely gone unnoticed. Burton has finished in the top 10 in 3 of the last 4 races, including a runner-up last week at Atlanta, which is surprisingly better than teammates AJ Allmendinger and Justin Haley. Burton has shown solid short track skills including a runner-up finish at Richmond last year. From the pole position, I expect Burton will be able to stay upfront and maintain solid track position that should help win match-ups. Lastly, Brett Moffitt is another driver to keep on your radar. Moffitt’s #02 typically finds ways to overachieve at these smaller venues where aerodynamics are not as important. Moffitt is a solid short-track driver that knows how to manage his tires for the long-run which will likely be very important. If you can find Moffitt in a bottom-tier match-up, he will likely be profitable.

Drivers to Fade

I have faded Sam Mayer in nearly every start this season with success and I am still surprised the youngster continues to get so much respect simply on the fact that he is in solid equipment. In 3 starts this season, Mayer has finished 18th, 38th, and 9th while continuing to receive betting odds among the intermediate favorites. For the life of me, I cannot understand this logic and will continue to fade Mayer if given the correct pairings. Other potential options include Josh Berry and Daniel Hemric among the top guys. I’m not convinced that I want to fade Berry outright but I don’t agree that he should be listed as low as 8-1 odds as the 3rd-4th overall favorite in this event. Meanwhile, Hemric has been relatively awful at Loudon throughout his career in both Xfinity and Cup Series. These flat surfaces do not exactly fit Hemric’s strength and I believe fading the #18 car will be a sharp option.

Draftkings Ambetter Get Vaccinated 200 Optimal Lineup

2021 Ambetter Get Vaccinated 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +550 (1 unit)
Harrison Burton +1200 (.75 unit)
Jeb Burton +3300 (.5 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Brett Moffitt -110 over Myatt Snider (2 units)
Justin Haley -125 over Sam Mayer (2 units)
Harrison Burton -105 over Daniel Hemric (2 units)