2021 Credit Karma Money 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday July 10th, 3:30PM (EST) at Atlanta Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

Last week, Kyle Busch scored his 4th Xfinity Series victory of the season by winning the Henry 180 at Road America. The victory pushed Busch’s win total in the series to a staggering mark of 101. Busch has stated he would retire following win 100 in the series but already had races scheduled following that historic win at Nashville just a few weeks ago. So far this season, Busch has competed 4 times and produced 4 victories. Busch’s presence in the Xfinity Series is limited to just 5 starts each season which is the same for all Cup Series veterans. On Saturday, Busch will try to complete the season sweep and perhaps make his final Xfinity Series appearance in the running of the Credit Karma Money 250 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

Busch’s recent dominance, which includes wins in 3 the last 4 weeks, has produced a wickedly chalked betting line this week. Rowdy has been listed in the -150 to -165 betting range across different sportsbooks meaning we are not going to get any free value on this week’s overall favorite. However, Busch’s overwhelming betting odds have opened the window of opportunity for some of the Xfinity Series regulars that are receiving tremendous value going into Saturday’s race. While we know Busch deserves to be the overwhelming favorite, Atlanta is one of those venues that is brutal towards equipment and tires. Therefore, there is enough value to warrant betting consideration for many of the top threats behind Busch like Justin Allgaier, Austin Cindric, and others!

Loop Data

Back in March, Justin Allgaier overcame Martin Truex Jr in the waning laps to win the Echo Park 250. Truex was making a rare Xfinity Series start, at the time, in the #54 car that has been driven by Kyle Busch and Ty Gibbs throughout the season. As we look for the best options behind Busch, I wanted to compile loop data metrics from the 1.5 mile venues this season. This data compiles race results from Homestead, Atlanta, Darlington, Charlotte, and Texas. I actually left Las Vegas off of this data compilation and included Darlington which is more comparable due to the tire wear similarities. Therefore, I believe the current loop data averages below give us a solid baseline going into Saturday.

As you will see below, Austin Cindric, Daniel Hemric, Justin Allgaier, AJ Allmendinger, and Noah Gragson are all within close proximity in terms of average driver ratings. Obviously, Allgaier stands out with the victories at both Atlanta and Darlington. However, we have to also pay attention to guys like Noah Gragson and Harrison Burton who are very close in terms of performance while being listed at near 20-1 odds. There is just too much value to ignore some of the potential homerun type threats that could yield serious upside this week similar to the way Myatt Snider brought home his surprise victory at Homestead. Everyone knows that it will be difficult to beat Busch but current odds give us the type of return that we typically desire for dark horse considerations.

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
Austin Cindric	108.3	2.4	6.6	10.8	6.6	20	68	119	860
Daniel Hemric	107.1	5.6	5.2	10.0	7.4	53	44	156	847
Justin Allgaier	106.0	16.6	7.2	10.8	10.0	89	56	80	780
A.J. Allmendinger	105.2	6.8	10.0	14.4	10.0	50	47	61	789
Noah Gragson	104.3	22.2	6.8	15.2	8.2	144	44	74	834
Harrison Burton	98.6	9.4	11.4	17.4	10.0	55	28	15	744
Justin Haley	94.1	7.6	8.4	11.4	9.0	10	16	6	861
Brandon Jones	93.5	11.8	14.0	11.2	13.4	66	22	22	830
Michael Annett	86.6	18.0	10.6	12.4	11.6	46	1	0	860
Riley Herbst	84.4	11.0	14.4	14.0	12.8	18	8	7	861
Jeb Burton	83.3	5.4	13.8	18.2	14.8	-34	4	0	848
Myatt Snider	81.5	10.6	14.8	18.0	14.4	-18	4	5	842
Josh Berry	80.7	22.4	13.2	20.4	14.4	89	25	8	778
Ryan Sieg	80.0	17.8	13.2	14.0	14.4	71	0	4	812
Brett Moffitt	79.4	12.2	20.8	17.8	18.0	38	10	6	735
Jeremy Clements	79.0	11.4	15.4	10.4	15.8	40	1	3	861
Landon Cassill	66.9	20.0	20.8	14.8	20.6	-4	0	0	861
Brandon Brown	66.4	11.8	16.6	21.8	19.0	-101	3	4	831
Alex Labbe	66.1	25.4	20.4	15.0	21.0	-12	0	0	861
Tommy Joe Martins	65.1	23.8	20.2	20.4	20.4	-68	14	0	847
Jeffrey Earnhardt	54.4	28.0	23.8	26.2	24.6	-49	0	0	794
Josh Williams	54.4	20.0	28.0	24.0	26.2	-55	0	0	759
David Starr	50.5	31.5	26.3	21.5	26.5	-25	0	0	659
Kyle Weatherman	49.6	24.5	29.3	31.0	27.5	-33	0	0	582
Colby Howard	49.0	26.2	21.4	29.0	25.8	-60	1	6	770
Jade Buford	48.6	21.6	27.0	23.0	26.6	-85	1	0	851
Timmy Hill	45.1	25.3	30.0	23.5	27.8	-15	0	0	604
Ryan Vargas	44.4	27.6	30.4	24.6	28.2	-78	0	0	858
Jesse Little	43.4	27.4	28.2	26.8	28.4	-46	1	0	851
Bayley Currey	42.6	31.5	30.5	31.3	30.3	-21	0	0	458
Joe Graf Jr	41.6	26.3	30.8	31.3	28.8	-59	0	0	633
Matt Mills	35.4	27.2	34.8	33.0	33.0	-31	0	0	652
Gray Gaulding	32.9	29.8	34.5	35.3	35.0	-33	0	0	524

Betting Targets

Behind Busch, Justin Allgaier is my favorite that could potentially steal the show this week. Allgaier is a terrific long-run driver and knows how to take car of his equipment throughout the course of a race to be in position in the closing laps. Behind Allgaier, I believe there is some serious value in the likes of Noah Gragson and Harrison Burton at very generous odds. Despite some struggles this season, Burton has finished in the top 5 in both of his prior Atlanta starts which includes a 3rd place finish back in March. Meanwhile, Gragson has finished 9th, 2nd, and 4th in his 3 career starts over the last 3 seasons. Gragson is one of those drivers that can flat-out wheel the car at tracks with low-grip conditions and I believe that is why we have seen the young driver have a lot of success at places like Atlanta and Homestead despite not having any wins at those venues.

Admittedly, I don’t have many betting targets for Saturday’s Credit Karma Money 250. The trio of drivers described above in Allgaier, Gragson, and Burton will also be the focal point of my H2H targets this week especially if I can find advantageous pairings. I also believe the likes of Myatt Snider and Justin Haley are decent H2H/fantasy options that should be kept on everyone’s radar. Haley has finished 8th, 3rd, and 8th in his only 3 starts at Atlanta. Despite the 8th place finish back in March, Haley was a top 5 car throughout the entire race. Meanwhile, Snider will be starting towards the rear which increases his fantasy appeal. Personally, I thought the majority of Snider’s success would come on the road courses in the Xfinity Series but it has actually been produced at these low-grip/high-wear venues.

Drivers to Fade

It has been really tough to identify true fades in the Xfinity Series over the last few races. As everyone knows, I will never force a driver into a specific category. Therefore, I am forced to continue listing drivers that I believe are “overvalued” which could be worthy of fade consideration given the proper match-up pairings. Among the drivers I believe are overvalued include a group of guys like Daniel Hemric, Sam Mayer, and Josh Berry. Berry will be making another start for Jordan Anderson Racing which is a brand-new team that likely cannot match the averages Berry has produced to date with JR. Motorsports. Hemric has never been strong at Atlanta but is listed in the thick of the group of 2nd-tier favorites behind Busch. Lastly, Sam Mayer has been overvalued for the last two weeks likely due to his prestigious seat with the #8 team.

Draftkings Credit Karma Money 250 Optimal Lineup

2021 Credit Karma Money 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +700 (1 unit)
Harrison Burton +1500 (.75 unit)
Noah Gragson +2000 (.75 unit)

Match-Ups and Props

Noah Gragson -125 over Brandon Jones (2 units)
Justin Haley -110 over Sam Mayer (2 units)