2021 Jockey Made in America 250 Race Picks
- Updated: July 4, 2021
Sunday July 4th, 2021. 2:30PM (EST) at Road America
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
For the first time since 1956, NASCAR’s Cup Series will return to Road America in Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin for Sunday’s running of the Jockey Made in America 250 on Independence Day. The lengthy 4.048 mile layout at Road America has annually hosted races in the Xfinity Series since 2010. However, NASCAR’s Cup Series has only held one official race at Road America which occurred in 1956 when racing pioneer and icon Tim Flock scored the victory in a 26 car field. On Sunday, NASCAR’s best return more than 60 years later to rekindle the flame at one of America’s most historic venues.
Though this Sunday’s race will be the first at Road America in the modern era, this will not be the first time NASCAR has visited a new venue this season. In fact, new venues have been the theme of the 2021 season and we had a very comparable event back in May at Circuit of the Americas. This Sunday’s trip to Road America will actually be the 4th race in the Cup Series this season at a road course venue which means we have enough prior performances to establish a solid baseline of expectations. Additionally, Cup Series’ teams and drivers participated in a 50 minute practice session on Saturday to solidify those expectations before Sunday’s green flag.
Road America is a 14 turn 4.048 mile layout that features several elevation changes. For drivers, Road America is not the most challenging layout in comparison to Circuit of the Americas or other road courses on the calendar. The track is pretty wide and does not have as many heavy braking zones as most would expect. The track surface is very worn which causes significant tire wear but it remains a relatively fast layout with average speeds over 100mph. The only venue that is faster than Road America, on average speed, is Watkins Glen among the true road course layouts. Therefore, we have to at least consider performance trends using the 750HP package and also give some credit to practice observations on Saturday to identify the drivers that have quickly adapted to this lengthy layout.
Loop Data at Road Courses
Since this will be the 4th race already this season at a road course, I figured we should compile loop data metrics for the prior 3 races consisting of Daytona’s RC, Circuit of the Americas, and most recently Sonoma. Interestingly enough, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson have finished 1st and 2nd in the last two races on road courses with Elliott getting the win at COTA and Larson getting the victory at Sonoma. Neither Larson nor Elliott should be any surprise. Larson is putting together one of the most dominant seasons in recent memory in terms of laps led and average running position. Meanwhile, Elliott’s career accomplishments point clearly to him breaking every record imaginable on the road courses.
With the speed factor in consideration this week, Elliott and Larson will undoubtedly be the top two threats yet again. However, I would like to mention Joey Logano who ranks 3rd in our loop data on the road courses. Logano is normally not one of the drivers that come to mind at the road courses but has posted impressive finishes of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in the 3 road course races this season. Logano’s overall performance has been much better under the 750hp package this season yet he is still not getting much credit for his success. Not only will Logano be on my radar this weekend especially in H2H formats but I would also throw a notable mention towards Ross Chastain as well. Chastain has been showing speed in recent weeks and pops at the #10 position in this week’s loop data stats. After a strong performance at COTA which I consider the toughest of the road course venues, Chastain may be another valuable betting target in H2H formats.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Fastest Laps | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 121.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 27 | 35 | 62 | 216 |
| Kyle Larson | 118.7 | 3.7 | 13.0 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 18 | 33 | 61 | 216 |
| Joey Logano | 114.5 | 10.0 | 21.7 | 3.0 | 7.7 | 52 | 6 | 29 | 216 |
| Kyle Busch | 100.5 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 16.7 | 12.0 | 37 | 12 | 14 | 215 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 100.1 | 18.3 | 16.3 | 16.7 | 13.0 | 56 | 14 | 3 | 186 |
| Denny Hamlin | 96.1 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 47 | 5 | 7 | 216 |
| Kurt Busch | 93.5 | 20.0 | 5.7 | 12.3 | 10.0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 216 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 91.4 | 20.5 | 23.0 | 6.0 | 15.5 | 67 | 2 | 2 | 124 |
| Alex Bowman | 87.3 | 18.3 | 13.3 | 9.0 | 14.7 | 30 | 1 | 3 | 216 |
| Ross Chastain | 86.2 | 19.3 | 24.7 | 16.7 | 18.0 | -32 | 4 | 4 | 172 |
| Christopher Bell | 84.4 | 14.0 | 15.7 | 21.0 | 17.7 | -7 | 14 | 5 | 180 |
| Michael McDowell | 83.7 | 15.3 | 18.7 | 14.3 | 15.7 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 216 |
| William Byron | 79.7 | 10.0 | 11.7 | 26.3 | 16.0 | -48 | 5 | 5 | 199 |
| Chris Buescher | 76.6 | 23.3 | 17.0 | 13.3 | 16.0 | -10 | 1 | 0 | 216 |
| Brad Keselowski | 75.1 | 16.0 | 17.0 | 13.0 | 17.0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 216 |
| Erik Jones | 73.0 | 28.0 | 14.7 | 13.7 | 18.7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 216 |
| Ryan Blaney | 72.7 | 15.7 | 20.0 | 14.0 | 20.0 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 216 |
| Ryan Preece | 71.0 | 23.0 | 18.3 | 15.0 | 18.3 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 216 |
| Austin Dillon | 70.1 | 8.3 | 19.0 | 19.7 | 17.3 | -23 | 0 | 0 | 215 |
| Chase Briscoe | 69.3 | 23.3 | 16.0 | 18.3 | 17.7 | -18 | 0 | 0 | 216 |
| Kevin Harvick | 68.8 | 8.0 | 17.7 | 21.7 | 19.7 | -3 | 2 | 0 | 181 |
| Tyler Reddick | 66.7 | 11.7 | 14.3 | 22.0 | 18.7 | -8 | 1 | 0 | 204 |
| Cole Custer | 64.4 | 16.7 | 29.0 | 23.0 | 20.7 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 186 |
| Daniel Suarez | 63.5 | 22.0 | 20.7 | 20.3 | 24.0 | -46 | 3 | 2 | 208 |
| Aric Almirola | 58.4 | 26.0 | 18.0 | 23.3 | 20.3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 216 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 58.3 | 23.3 | 17.3 | 27.7 | 21.0 | -53 | 0 | 0 | 211 |
| Bubba Wallace | 57.0 | 14.3 | 33.0 | 26.3 | 27.7 | -112 | 0 | 0 | 180 |
| Corey LaJoie | 54.2 | 18.0 | 20.7 | 23.0 | 22.0 | -21 | 0 | 0 | 216 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 53.1 | 17.3 | 32.3 | 25.7 | 25.3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 164 |
| Anthony Alfredo | 48.3 | 32.0 | 20.0 | 23.7 | 25.3 | -55 | 0 | 0 | 216 |
| Ryan Newman | 48.2 | 30.3 | 17.3 | 25.7 | 23.0 | -65 | 0 | 0 | 216 |
| James Davison | 45.6 | 34.3 | 28.0 | 25.7 | 29.0 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 216 |
| Cody Ware | 41.1 | 31.0 | 31.7 | 30.3 | 29.3 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 207 |
| Josh Bilicki | 39.0 | 30.0 | 33.7 | 31.7 | 30.7 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 214 |
| Justin Haley | 38.4 | 25.0 | 29.5 | 32.0 | 33.0 | -24 | 0 | 0 | 82 |
| Scott Heckert | 35.3 | 31.5 | 34.5 | 27.0 | 31.5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 162 |
| Garrett Smithley | 33.7 | 32.3 | 31.7 | 29.0 | 31.7 | -18 | 0 | 0 | 216 |
| Quin Houff | 26.6 | 34.0 | 34.7 | 36.7 | 35.7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 110 |
Saturday Practice Notes
The Busch brothers top the charts in Saturday’s lone practice session. Kurt Busch laid down the fastest lap of the session towards the end of practice presumably during a mock qualifying run with a lap of 108.875mph. Busch and Ryan Blaney appeared to be among the small group to make mock qualifying runs at the end of practice which propelled their single lap speed into the top 5. Before those laps, it was really the experienced trio of Kyle Busch, Austin Cindric, and AJ Allmendinger that held the top positions throughout the majority of practice. I say experienced because all 3 of those drivers have prior laps around Road America due to their Xfinity Series participation this week which obviously played an advantage in the early parts of practice.
While I don’t think the experience and familiarity aspect will be as big of a factor on Sunday, it is worth noting that those 3 drivers were still strong across the board. I thought Allmendinger was among the fastest drivers in the field in terms of consistency. Allmendinger was in a group with Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Larson who just appeared to have speed every lap. Unfortunately, Busch wrecked midway through the practice and will resort to the backup car. Busch made several mistakes in today’s Henry 180 which makes me want to stay away from the #18. Perhaps the biggest surprises surrounded Austin Cindric and Christopher Bell. I probably should not label either driver a “surprise” due to their prior success at road courses. However, both Cindric and Bell exceeded expectations in practice and can make the argument for true dark horses going into Sunday.
Obviously everything was not pleasant in this morning’s session. Chase Elliott, the overall betting favorite, did not show the speed that many of the leaders possessed. Elliott was 14th in terms of single lap speed and never showed the speed that we would expect from one of the greatest road course drivers in history. Personally, I have had Joey Logano and Martin Truex close on my radar all week due to their success under the 750HP package this season and underrated road course success for Logano specifically. However, neither one of those drivers showed a lot in practice. However, I am not convinced that practice observations should be given an overextended amount of credibility. With that amount of drivers just trying to learn the layout and get comfortable with the track, these practice observations are likely slightly misleading as to what to expect going into Sunday.
Betting Targets
Though I am trying not to give practice observations too much credit, I must admit that I will likely stay away from Elliott based on Saturday’s observations simply because there is more risk than reward based on the mediocre practice speeds. To back one of the top favorites, we need overwhelming evidence to outweigh the risk and I’m not sure that is the case at this point. For Kyle Larson, I did see enough improvement from the opening lap to the end of practice that leads me to believe he deserves his place among the top betting favorites. My personal problem is that I do not know who should be deserving behind Larson as the next best options for the outright win.
With the amount of strategy that will be involved in Sunday’s Jockey Made in America 250, I don’t feel overly confident in many betting picks for the outright victory. In fact, I would almost prefer a strategy to target dark horses at much better odds to compensate for the inherited risk. As a result, my focus will be on H2H match-ups. My betting targets for match-up purposes include Christopher Bell, AJ Allmendinger, Tyler Reddick, and potentially Ross Chastain. I mentioned Chastain’s road course success in our loop data above and Tyler Reddick has shown similar trends over his last few road course starts. Overall, I thought Christopher Bell and Allmendinger showed the most upside from practices. Allmendinger was outspokenly pleased with the handling of the #16 car and Bell walked away from practice as the biggest standout to me personally. As a result, these drivers will be at the forefront of my betting targets on Sunday.
Betting Fades
There are not many options for outright fade material going into Sunday mainly because of the elevated risk of the unknown. However, I would suggest that Chase Elliott is potentially overvalued based on practice and overall performance at recent road course races. I would also throw out names like Michael McDowell and Martin Truex Jr as potential fade candidates. Both Truex and McDowell have a lot of road course respect among bettors and the public perception. However, both drivers struggled immensely in practices and also shared a notable trend of under performing at first time venues. Lastly, Austin Dillon and Ryan Preece are typical fade targets any time the road course venues come around.
Draftkings 2021 Jockey Made in America 250 Optimal Lineup
2021 Jockey Made in America 250 Betting Picks
*Final*
Joey Logano +1350 (.5 unit)Denny Hamlin +1400 (.5 unit)
AJ Allmendinger +2000 (.5 unit)
Christopher Bell +3000 (.5 unit)
Kevin Harvick +4000 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Ross Chastain -155 over Michael McDowell (2 units)Kyle Larson -115 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
AJ Allmendinger – 110 over Alex Bowman (2 units)
Austin Cindric -115 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
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