2021 Henry 180 Race Picks
- Updated: July 2, 2021
Saturday July 3rd, 12:00PM (EST) at Road America
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
Xfinity and Cup Series teams will make the trip to Road America this weekend for two patriotic days of racing on the historic 4.048 mile road course. While the Cup Series will be making their first appearance at Road America in more than 60 years, the Xfinity Series has regularly competed at Road America since 2010. In fact, there are 4 former series winners at Road America competing in Saturday’s Henry 180 in the likes of AJ Allmendinger, Jeremy, Clements, Justin Allgaier, and Austin Cindric who won the most recent race last year. Despite the variety of former winners, Kyle Busch remains the heavy betting favorite as he returns following to the series following win #100 at Nashville
Busch is ultimately using Saturday’s Henry 180 as a learning opportunity and preparation for Sunday’s Cup Series race. Obviously the reason behind the appearance this week does not change Busch’s justified heavy favorite status. However, I believe Busch’s presence may be an opportunistic factor for Saturday’s Henry 180. Without Busch, Austin Cindric would have been an overwhelming favorite following his 4th win of the season at Pocono last week. Cindric is likely the best road course talent in the field and is the returning winner of the Henry 180. Fortunately, Cindric’s betting odds have been slightly more appealing than expected this week with Busch in the lineup. The same can be said for AJ Allemdinger, Ty Gibbs, Justin Allgaier, and the rest of the Xfinity Series top threats.
Friday Practice Notes
Friday’s solo practice for the Henry 180 was entertaining to say the least. A caution was thrown because a screwdriver was left on the track, Noah Gragson’s bad luck continued with a blown motor, and both Josh Bilicki and Kris Wright had troubles during the 50 minute session. At the end of the session, the one thing that stood out was that Austin Cindric was ridiculously fast. Cindric posted the fastest lap of the session by nearly a full second over the closest competitor. Jeb Burton and Justin Allgaier were the closest in comparison in terms of fast lap times. While Cindric’s fast lap was extremely impressive, AJ Allmendinger actually posted the better average lap times while running the same amount of laps as Cindric so perhaps that is something to keep in mind as well.
Unlike most venues, Friday was Kyle Busch’s first laps around Road America. Busch finished the session with the 7th fastest lap and was solid despite the non-experience factor. It is worth noting that Busch will be in the #54 car this week while Ty Gibbs makes a start in the #81 with Joe Gibbs Racing making it the first time this season JGR has fielded 5 cars at once. Other notes from practice on Friday include the positive trends around Daniel Hemric and Justin Allgaier. Both drivers displayed solid speed. Obviously Allgaier is a former winner at Road America and deserves respect on a near weekly basis, Hemric however may be a H2H option due to his relatively moderate road course resume. A couple of other less favorable observations including very average results from Kevin Harvick in the #99 car and Brandon Jones who has traditionally struggled at the road course layouts.
Betting Targets
In terms of targets for the outright win, I am laser focused on both Austin Cindric and AJ Allmendinger. I’m sure Kyle Busch will find a way to be in the mix of things by the time the race winds down. However, I just believe Cindric and Allmendinger will be the guys to beat. Obviously, there is minimal betting value on either driver at less than 5-1 odds. Personally, I think there is some slight sharp value with Allmendinger. In 3 starts at Road America, Allmendinger has a victory and finished in the runner-up position behind Cindric in last year’s Henry 180. I believe the Kaulig Racing cars have performed much better in 2021 and I believe that makes Allmendinger a bigger threat than many realize.
A couple of drivers that have piqued my betting interest in the form of H2H matchups include the likes of Daniel Hemric and Preston Pardus. Pardus is a driver that I normally have in my fantasy lineups at the road courses because he often overachievers at these venues. Back at Circuit of the Americas, Pardus was listed in bottom-tier match-ups and if that happens again; Pardus is a bottom-tier streaming option following his career-best 8th place finish in this race last year. Meanwhile, Daniel Hemric reluctantly pops on my radar this week. I say reluctantly because I despite backing drivers that find ways to finish worse than they run. Hemric obviously falls in that bucket but he has shown a lot of underrated success at the road course venues throughout his career. I actually thought Hemric was among the faster cars in Friday’s practice and perhaps that presents an opportunity on Saturday given the right pairing.
*Additional drivers that meet the category of “undervalued” for match-up/fantasy purposes includes the following group of drivers: Josh Bilicki and Myatt Snider
Drivers to Fade
I don’t think I can rightfully fade Busch this week given his overall talent but I’m just not sure if he deserves the betting dominance that he is getting from odds-makers. I would rather have Cindric in my lineup this week and that will be a match-up opportunity across most books. For outright fade material, Kevin Harvick is at the top of the list. Like Busch, Harvick is using Saturday’s Henry 180 as a learning opportunity but will be doing so with inferior equipment. Harvick is driving the #99 car for B.J. McLeod Motorsports which greatly handicaps his ceiling. As a result, there should be really solid opportunities to fade Harvick on Saturday. Another solid fade option includes Sam Mayer in the #8 machine.
Draftkings Henry 180 Optimal Lineup
2021 Henry 180 Race Picks
*Final*
Austin Cindric +250 (1.5 units)AJ Allmendinger +450 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1600 (.5 unit)
Match-Ups and Props
Daniel Hemric -115 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)Justin Allgaier -130 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Jeb Burton -110 over Sam Mayer (2 units)
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