2021 CRC Brakleen 150 Race Picks
- Updated: June 25, 2021
Saturday June 26th, 2021. 12:00PM (EST) at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
The Camping World Truck Series will have the luxury of kicking off a double header on Saturday when the green flag waives for the CRC Brakleen 150 at Pocono Raceway. The Truck Series will compete for 150 miles of racing and once the dust settles in victory lane; the Cup Series will go racing with the Pocono 325 in their first of two races this weekend. For Saturday’s opener, this will be an important race for Truck Series competitors as the playoff battle heats up. In fact, Pocono will be the last true oval before the playoffs begin. The only two remaining races following Pocono can be considered wild-card events at both Knoxville and Watkins Glen. As a result, this Saturday’s CRC Brakleen 150 will be important for those drivers trying to solidify their playoff hopes.
Due to John Hunter Nemechek’s success this season which includes 4 victories, there have not been that many winners in the Camping World Truck Series this season. Ben Rhodes opened the year by winning both races at Daytona and Kyle Busch has scored two victories in his part-time role. In last week’s return to Nashville, Cup Series veteran Ryan Preece spoiled the show in his 1st career series start. As it currently stands, Todd Gilliland (COTA) and Sheldon Creed (Darlington) are the only other drivers to taste victory lane this season. The drivers that have yet to taste victory lane include a pretty prestigious list of names that include Zane Smith, Stewart Friesen, and a group of former champions in Matt Crafton, Johnny Sauter, and Austin Hill. In fact, Johnny Sauter is currently 15 points below the cut-line on points alone as time continues to wind down.
For bettors, I am not exactly confident that Saturday’s CRC Brakleen 150 will be the best betting opportunity. At face value, this appears to be another prime spot for Kyle Busch and John Hunter Nemechek to flex their muscles with KBM horsepower. As the obvious two biggest betting favorites, this does not leave a lot of room in the realm of betting value. Obviously Nemechek would be the weekly favorite among Truck Series regulars. However, I did indicate that Nemechek may be a pivot option to fade last week at Nashville. That prediction turned out to be spot-on as JHN struggled to a 10th place result. For Saturday’s race, I believe this is the perfect bounce back spot for Nemechek and pretty reasonable odds given Busch’s overwhelming favorite status. Nemechek checks off all the major handicapping boxes and Kyle Busch Motorsports has won 5 of the last 6 races at Pocono.
Betting and Fantasy Targets
I am going to keep the Truck Series’ preview relatively brief because there are 3 additional races this weekend and much better betting opportunities. Behind the KBM trucks, Sheldon Creed and Todd Gilliland are likely going to be the best dark horse picks. I have mentioned Creed for about 3 straight weeks now and the #2 team has produced poor finishes in those events. However, Creed is among the best drivers in the series and I remain convinced that they have the speed to win races. At nearly 12-1 odds, it would be asinine to not mention the potential value on the #2 team if something happens to the KBM trucks.
For Gilliland, he is among my favorite H2H options for the top-tier drivers. The #38 team has found speed this year and Gilliland’s success is being overshadowed by the wins put together from John Hunter Nemechek. However, Gilliland has posted top 10 finishes in 8 of 12 races this season and has posted finishes of 7th or better in the last 7 of 8 races. Gilliland has shown prior success at Pocono and has never finished worse than 7th in 3 career starts. With the current momentum from the #38 team, this should be another prime opportunity for Gilliland to capture another quality finish.
For fantasy purposes, Grant Enfinger and Derek Kraus are worthy considerations this week due to their starting positions and bad luck last week. Enfinger will be piloting the #9 truck for CR7 Motorsports this week but he has managed to produce solid finishes in his part-time role away from Thorsport Racing. Another driver that I am targeting in both fantasy and potential H2H formats is Tyler Ankrum in the #26 truck for GMS Racing. As an entire organization, GMS Racing has experienced a slow start to the 2021 season but is starting to show speed again like we witnessed for most of the 2020 campaign. Ankrum has posted finishes of 2nd and 9th at Pocono for two different teams with a near triple digit average driver rating. I’m not sure if Ankrum can match his 2019 runner-up finish this week but I do believe he can get inside the top 10 again which may be all you need to cash a winning ticket based on the match-up pairings with Ankrum in recent weeks.
Drivers to Fade
I’m not sure if this would qualify as a sharp fade but I will be looking to bet against Johnny Sauter this week if we can find the right pairings. Sauter is obviously having an underwhelming season but has shown decent speed in the last few weeks. However, the #13 team and Thorsport Racing are not nearly as strong as I believed they would be this season. Now Sauter will have the unfortunate task of battling the Tricky Triangle in less than stellar equipment for the first time in only a decade. Sauter has traditionally struggled, when compared to the top guys, at Pocono and I believe that will be even worse this Saturday given their current performance trends.
A few additional drivers that are also overvalued include last week’s winner Ryan Preece and Ben Rhodes. Rhodes has become a nearly weekly fade option simply because he continues to be overvalued and listed with the favorites. Meanwhile, Preece was very “average” last week in his 1st start with DGR-Crosley. Preece did come on strong at the end of the race but let’s not forget that pit strategy was the reason the #17 team won that race. I would not expect that team to be in the running for another victory this week as odds would seemingly suggest.
Draftkings CRC Brakleen 150 Optimal Lineup
2021 CRC Brakleen 150 Betting Picks
*Final*
John Hunter Nemechek +500 (1 unit)Sheldon Creed +1200 (.75 unit)
Todd Gilliland +1400 (.75 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
John Hunter Nemechek -180 over Austin Hill (2 units)Todd Gilliland -115 over Ryan Preece (2 units)
Tyler Ankrum +100 over Derek Kraus (2 units)
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