2021 Tennessee Lottery 250 Race Picks
- Updated: June 18, 2021
Saturday June 19th, 3:30PM (EST) at Nashville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
On Saturday, NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will get the opportunity to showcase their skills at Nashville Speedway in the running of the Tennessee Lottery 250. Like the Truck Series, the Xfinity Series previously competed at Nashville on a regular basis but it has been 10 years since the last event was held in Music City. Alongside the Xfinity Series’ return to Nashville, another major storyline will surround Kyle Busch’s historic run for his 100th win. Busch has won in each of his prior two starts this season and has stated multiple times that he would retire from the series when he reached 100 wins. In tomorrow’s Tennessee Lottery 250, Busch will be a heavy favorite to cement his legacy and perhaps reach that historic 100th victory.
For bettors, this will be a typical Kyle Busch Xfinity Series event. For win/futures bets, either you are going to back Kyle Busch at heavily juiced value or take the risk of pivoting against Busch’s favorite status in hopes to garnish extra value given to the remaining competitors. Personally, I have always enjoyed pivoting against Busch when given justifiable opportunities but that has not been a profitable strategy in Rowdy’s prior two starts this season. Additionally, Busch appeared extremely strong in Friday’s lone practice session which seems to insinuate that the field will be chasing him once the green flag waves on Saturday. Still, we are prepared to make the most of Saturday’s Tennessee Lottery 250 and discuss the best betting options for the return to Nashville.
Practice Notes
As I mentioned earlier, Busch really flexed his muscle in Friday’s practice. Busch posted the fastest lap of the session at 30.746 (155.728mph) which was 2 tenths faster than the field. Busch is a former winner at Nashville Speedway in the Xfinity Series stemming from his victory in 2009 and that experience was on full display on Friday as Rowdy led every category in fastest lap and fastest 5,10, and 15 lap averages. Behind Busch, the rest of the Joe Gibbs Racing cars also displayed solid speed. Daniel Hemric has been fast every week but continues to find ways to get the worst finishes. Meanwhile, Harrison Burton was the bigger surprise out of the JGR brigade in practice. Burton’s long run speed was the closest in comparison to Busch and while the #20 team has not posted outstanding results this season; we should still keep in mind that Burton won 4 races last year as a rookie in the series.
AJ Allmendinger and Austin Cindric also showed solid speed in Friday’s session which is not very surprising considering their performance this season. Personally, I was a bit surprised to see Justin Allgaier back in 13th in practice on single lap speed. Allgaier has historically been really good on the flatter surfaces and I would assume that he will race much better than he practices. Perhaps a few of the bigger surprises surrounded the likes of Noah Gragson, Tyler Reddick, and Justin Haley. All 3 drivers were outside the top 10 and appeared to struggle with consistency from my observation of lap-by-lap data. I’m not too surprised that Reddick experienced some struggles as he is driving for Jordan Anderson Racing which is a very inexperienced team. Still, these guys did not show a lot of promising signs going into Saturday.
Betting Targets
I really hate to make this comment but this is Kyle Busch’s race to lose. Obviously, nothing is guaranteed in NASCAR when you consider mechanical failures, pit road mistakes, tire failures, and other things that can go wrong. However, I think something will need to happen to the #54 to keep Busch from winning this race. Honestly, I just don’t see enough realistic value from the Xfinity Series regulars to warrant multiple dark horse options. While I understand Busch yields disgusting ROI potential, I still believe it is the most realistic path to profit for win/futures bets.
Aside from Busch, Harrison Burton and Justin Allgaier are worth consideration if you are going to chase value. I mentioned earlier that I expect Allgaier to race better than his single lap speed would indicate and would not be surprised if he has a mediocre qualifying effort before moving forward once the green flag waves. If you can risk the wait, Allgaier may provide some added value closer to race time compared to current odds. For Harrison Burton, I am boosting my expectations for the #20 based on the practice observations. I thought Burton was really solid and appeared to get better as the laps progressed. Burton has a patient driving style and that is ideal for getting through the corners at Nashville.
Outside of those relatively conservative observations, I did not see any other surprises. If you are looking for deeper H2H or fantasy value, I would suggest considerations for Ryan Sieg and Austin Hill as value options. Sieg has quietly put together a solid string of finishes which includes 11th place or better in 5 of the last 7 races. Meanwhile, Austin Hill is one of those guys that seems to produce much better results away from the 1.5 mile tracks which is probably due to the equipment factor for his Xfinity Series ride with Hattori Enterprises. Both Sieg and Hill were solid on the stopwatch on Friday so I expect them to have decent runs. For bottom-tier drivers, Sieg provides the most H2H upside.
Drivers to Fade
Similar to last week’s preview, there are not many drivers that deserve undeniable fade attention. Instead, I would classify this list of drivers as “overvalued” in terms of current betting odds which could provide a fade option given the correct match-up. One of my sharper predictions will be to fade Austin Cindric on Saturday especially if I can get plus odds on the match-up. Cindric has historically been a slow learner on the flat tracks and I’m not convinced the #22 team is nearly as dominant as they have been in previous years. Don’t get me wrong, Cindric has plenty of speed to produce a quality result. However, I believe he will be less than stellar and if he finishes outside the top 5 then that is fade value for one of the top favorites in the field.
Additional drivers that fall into the category as “overvalued” include Noah Gragson and Tyler Reddick. Both Gragson and Reddick are among the most aggressive drivers in Saturday’s field. As stated earlier, I believe Reddick’s biggest challenge is the equipment factor and we continue to see the Cup Series’ drivers overvalued in the lower series’ events despite the equipment concerns. So far, this has been a pretty reliable trend. For the #9 team, I am fading Gragson’s driving style at Nashville. I believe this is a bad stylistic track for Gragson and I will also point out the fact the #9 team has experienced a ton of bad luck this week. I will take a shot at either of those angles working out if I can find the proper match-up opposite of Gragson!
Draftkings Tennessee Lottery 250 Optimal Lineup
2021 Tennessee Lottery 250 Race Picks
*Final*
Kyle Busch -140 (3 units)Harrison Burton +1400 (.5 unit)
Match-Ups and Props
Harrison Burton -110 over Noah Gragson (2 units)AJ Allmendinger +125 over Austin Cindric (2 units)
Ryan Sieg +125 over Brett Moffitt (2 units)
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