2021 Rackley Roofing 200 Race Picks
- Updated: June 18, 2021
Friday June 18th, 2021. 8:00PM (EST) at Nashville Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
Later this evening, the Camping World Truck Series will wave the green flag for the Rackley Roofing 200 at Nashville Speedway. Unlike the Cup Series that will be making their first appearance at Nashville on Sunday in the Ally 400, the Camping World Truck Series previously competed at Nashville from 2001-2011. As a result, tonight’s opening green flag will mark NASCAR’s first event at Nashville since 2011. NASCAR has put a lot of effort towards mixing up the schedule this season to provide different types of racing and Nashville has all the criteria to deliver exciting racing.
Nashville Speedway is a 1.33 mile oval with very flat corners at just 14 degrees of banking. The track is fully concrete similar to the likes of Dover and Bristol. As a result, the 20 year old racing surface will provide some character though tire wear will not be as significant as aged asphalt surfaces. For comparison purposes, Nashville Speedway would be comparable to Gateway Motorsports Park which has been rebranded as the World Wide Technology Raceway. Unlike other series, Camping World Truck Series teams compete at Gateway each season and perhaps that is the most similar track in comparison to Nashville as tonight’s race approaches.
Fortunately, bettors will not have to go into this event betting blind. Earlier this morning, Truck Series teams and drivers held a 50 minute practice session which provided some valuable observation going into tonight’s event. Currently, Truck Series’ teams are preparing to qualify to set tonight’s starting lineup. Qualifying will be an impound qualifying format which means teams will not be able to change anything on the trucks afterwards. Basically, drivers are qualifying in their race setups which can also shed some light on outright raw speed. Needless to say, I think we have enough information to move forward with confident picks for tonight’s opener at Nashville.
Practice Notes and Betting Targets
I took a few early chances on Sheldon Creed (+500) and Ross Chastain (+1200) this week based purely on performance and driving style. Both Creed and Chastain have shown really strong speed throughout the season and will finally get a good opportunity to overthrow John Hunter Nemechek who has been downright sensational. Chastain has been making the most of his opportunities in the #45 truck with Niece Motorsports and I like his aggressive driving style on these fast flat corners. Meanwhile, Creed has been the only driver to show the ability to match Nemechek’s speed in recent weeks despite failing to finish the last two races. Still, Creed’s prior success at Gateway is something I took into consideration as well. Creed has been excellent at these layouts like Gateway and Iowa which share some similarities to Nashville.
Based on practice results, I must admit that Ross Chastain did not show much speed in the 50 minute session. The drivers that really stood out on the speed charts revolved around the likes of John Hunter Nemechek, Todd Gilliland, and Matt Crafton. Those drivers consistently posted some of the best laps of the session lap after lap. I nearly pulled the trigger on Gilliland early this week and now regretting that decision based on practice results. Gilliland is another driver that has shown success at Iowa/Gateway type venues and has a lot of momentum over the last few weeks.
In the realm of practices, Chandler Smith, Derek Kraus, and Tanner Gray were among the drivers that are emerging for both fantasy and betting purposes. Smith posted the fastest lap of the session at 161.489mph and also led all drivers with the fastest 5 lap average. Personally, I was mostly impressed with Tanner Gray. Gray has experienced a difficult 2021 campaign but is coming off his best finish (9th) of the year at Texas. Gray posted really solid lap times in practices and perhaps provides some H2H value going into tonight’s race. On the opposite end of the spectrum, I want to list a few guys that did not impress me in practices that I was keeping close on my radar. Drivers that I expected would be fast which were not impressive in this morning’s practice include the trio of Ross Chastain, Zane Smith, and Ben Rhodes.
Drivers to Fade
Before practice this morning, William Byron was among the drivers at the top of my fade list. Byron is making his 1st Truck Series start of the season and is stepping into the #27 truck for Rackley W.A.R. Byron posted the 2nd fastest lap in this morning’s session which will undoubtedly boost his expectations this evening. As a result, I think this will be an ideal fade opportunity against Byron who will be piloting relatively inferior equipment. Rackley W.A.R just recently parted ways with Timothy Peters and has also had Josh Berry drive for the team over the last few weeks.
It has been very apparent that Rackley W.A.R does not have the speed needed to win races and I believe people are overlooking that factor when looking at Bryon’s odds for tonight’s event. While Byron will be my main fade target tonight, I will also throw names like Ben Rhodes and Drew Dollar as considerable fade candidates as well. Rhodes continues to be overvalued due to his early season success. Meanwhile, Drew Dollar continues to be overvalued on a weekly basis due to the KBM equipment factor. I faded Dollar last week to success and he looked pretty awful in this morning’s practice. If I can find match-ups fading Dollar with any realistic value, he will be a must-fade candidate again this week.
Draftkings Rackley Roofing 200 Optimal Lineup
2021 Rackley Roofing 200 Betting Picks
*Final*
Sheldon Creed +500 (1 unit)Ross Chastain +1200 (.75 unit)
Chandler Smith +2000 (.5 unit)
Todd Gilliland +4000 (.5 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
Matt Crafton -110 over Ryan Preece (3 units)Zane Smith -110 over William Byron (2 units)
Johnny Sauter -110 over Drew Dollar (2 units)
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