2021 SpeedyCash.com 220 Race Picks
- Updated: June 11, 2021
Saturday June 12th, 2021. 1:00PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com
On Sunday NASCAR will host the prestigious All-Star Race for the first time from Texas Motor Speedway with a million dollar grand prize on the line. Before Sunday’s main event takes center stage, NASCAR will produce an equally intriguing double header on Saturday between the Camping World Truck Series and the Xfinity Series. The opening green flag on Saturday will be waived in the SpeedyCash.com 220 as the Camping World Truck Series takes center stage for 147 laps of scheduled action. In recent weeks, the Truck Series has provided excellent opportunities for bettors and perhaps we will get even better opportunities on Saturday when the likes of Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, and Josh Berry join the party.
For Truck Series competitors, just 5 races remain before the start of the playoffs which means drivers and teams are running out of time to earn their ticket for a shot at the championship. To this point in the season, everyone is chasing John Hunter Nemechek who leads the series with 3 victories. Nemechek has been absolutely fantastic in Kyle Busch Motorsports equipment this season and won the most recent Truck Series event held at Charlotte just two weeks ago. As many are aware, Charlotte Motor Speedway is considered a sister track to Texas Motor Speedway. As a result, Nemechek will enter this Saturday’s SpeedyCash.com 220 as the lofty betting favorite yet again.
Outside of Nemechek, only 3 other series regulars have won races this season. Ben Rhodes opened the season by winning both races at Daytona. Sheldon Creed captured a well deserved win at Darlington and we recently cashed our biggest win of the season with Todd Gilliland at Circuit of the Americas. Outside of those notable moments, the rest of the victories have gone to Cup Series stars Kyle Busch (2) and Martin Truex (1). As we enter the 11th race of the season, well-known talents like Zane Smith, Austin Hill, Matt Crafton, Johnny Sauter, and others are among the drivers still searching for that first win of the season. While those drivers are worthy of breaking-through, it is obvious that everyone is still chasing Nemechek at this point in the season. The good news is that there will be some high caliber talents suiting up in this Saturday’s SpeedyCash.com 220 to spice up the competition.
Loop Data
Luckily, we have witnessed several races on the 1.5 mile speedways in the Truck Series this season. While we could look at historical trends, current performance trends on similar layouts hold the biggest handicapping weight for Truck Series predictions at the 1.5 mile venues. As a result, I compiled loop data for all races this season at 1.5 mile venues which includes Las Vegas, Atlanta, Kansas, and Charlotte. Without much surprise, John Hunter Nemechek has compiled absolutely ridiculous stats that lead every major category. To stress the potency of these stats, Nemechek has posted equal average running position and average finishing position of 2.5 through all 4 races on the 1.5 mile speedways this season.
While Nemechek’s stats tend to mirror his owner Kyle Busch’s stats in the lower series, nothing is guaranteed in the sport of auto racing. Despite the large lead in the stats department, Austin Hill and Sheldon Creed have been within striking distance in the last few races. Aside from Nemechek, Hill has shown the most speed on the 1.5 mile tracks and has posted a really solid 4.3 average finishing position. I would also point out that Ross Chastain has posted similar results despite just two starts in the #45 for Niece Motorsports. I’m still not a fan of the performance from Niece Motorsports as an entire group but Chastain continues to get the most out of each start.
| Driver | Avg. Rating | Avg. Start | Avg. Mid Race | Avg. Finish | Avg. Pos. | Pass Diff. | Quality Passes | Fastest Lap | Laps Led | Total Laps |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Hunter Nemechek | 134.6 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 25 | 97 | 105 | 202 | 538 |
| Austin Hill | 110.9 | 11.8 | 10.3 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 57 | 127 | 30 | 0 | 538 |
| Stewart Friesen | 104.9 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 22 | 136 | 19 | 5 | 538 |
| Ross Chastain | 103.1 | 37.0 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 57 | 68 | 9 | 6 | 270 |
| Sheldon Creed | 101.2 | 5.0 | 17.0 | 22.5 | 12.3 | -32 | 73 | 30 | 81 | 455 |
| Ben Rhodes | 99.8 | 3.5 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 27 | 152 | 4 | 2 | 537 |
| Zane Smith | 99.7 | 13.5 | 15.3 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 25 | 120 | 5 | 13 | 538 |
| Matt Crafton | 94.9 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 16.8 | 9.0 | -5 | 128 | 7 | 3 | 517 |
| Christian Eckes | 91.3 | 14.7 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 11 | 118 | 2 | 6 | 408 |
| Todd Gilliland | 90.7 | 5.5 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 11.3 | -32 | 98 | 3 | 5 | 537 |
| Brett Moffitt | 88.4 | 13.5 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 37 | 76 | 4 | 13 | 264 |
| Johnny Sauter | 83.2 | 10.5 | 18.8 | 14.8 | 15.5 | 9 | 75 | 4 | 13 | 515 |
| Grant Enfinger | 81.7 | 18.5 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 14.0 | 21 | 131 | 3 | 0 | 536 |
| Bayley Currey | 78.3 | 22.5 | 8.5 | 15.5 | 13.0 | 21 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 273 |
| Parker Kligerman | 77.8 | 27.5 | 20.0 | 11.0 | 16.0 | 24 | 50 | 1 | 0 | 263 |
| Chandler Smith | 76.8 | 11.5 | 17.3 | 17.8 | 19.3 | -41 | 81 | 18 | 0 | 532 |
| Derek Kraus | 76.4 | 16.5 | 17.5 | 20.3 | 18.3 | 36 | 96 | 7 | 0 | 527 |
| Carson Hocevar | 75.8 | 11.8 | 18.8 | 15.3 | 19.0 | -6 | 68 | 13 | 5 | 536 |
| Tanner Gray | 75.5 | 19.8 | 15.8 | 17.8 | 15.8 | -12 | 86 | 6 | 0 | 535 |
| Tyler Ankrum | 75.2 | 16.5 | 13.3 | 20.8 | 15.3 | -4 | 104 | 3 | 2 | 524 |
| Hailie Deegan | 66.4 | 22.5 | 16.3 | 18.8 | 19.0 | -15 | 79 | 4 | 0 | 532 |
| Ryan Truex | 65.5 | 25.8 | 20.8 | 21.3 | 19.3 | 29 | 65 | 4 | 1 | 505 |
| Austin Wayne Self | 64.8 | 13.3 | 19.0 | 17.5 | 19.3 | -33 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 534 |
| Raphael Lessard | 62.8 | 17.0 | 25.7 | 25.7 | 21.7 | -33 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 385 |
| Timmy Hill | 58.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 20.0 | 23.5 | -13 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 272 |
| Spencer Davis | 56.3 | 29.0 | 23.0 | 24.5 | 23.5 | 5 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 266 |
| Chase Purdy | 54.2 | 24.0 | 26.8 | 26.5 | 24.0 | -26 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 459 |
| Timothy Peters | 49.8 | 21.5 | 24.8 | 26.3 | 26.5 | -7 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 412 |
| Danny Bohn | 48.9 | 25.0 | 28.5 | 23.8 | 27.5 | -28 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 530 |
| Dawson Cram | 48.0 | 28.5 | 24.5 | 26.0 | 27.0 | -46 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 530 |
| Tate Fogleman | 46.5 | 25.3 | 31.0 | 29.8 | 29.0 | -21 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 430 |
| Jordan Anderson | 46.3 | 29.3 | 26.3 | 27.3 | 26.3 | -29 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 397 |
| Kris Wright | 42.6 | 20.0 | 28.0 | 27.0 | 29.7 | -22 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 399 |
| Bret Holmes | 41.9 | 33.3 | 30.8 | 33.0 | 29.5 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 419 |
| Cory Roper | 40.6 | 29.3 | 29.3 | 29.3 | 29.7 | -15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 367 |
| Spencer Boyd | 35.9 | 30.0 | 32.0 | 29.0 | 32.3 | -27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 520 |
| Akinori Ogata | 32.9 | 36.0 | 33.0 | 32.5 | 34.5 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 248 |
| Jennifer Jo Cobb | 29.7 | 35.8 | 36.5 | 34.3 | 36.3 | -15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 424 |
| Norm Benning | 24.6 | 36.3 | 39.7 | 37.3 | 39.0 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 237 |
Betting Targets
After reviewing the loop data and performance trends this week, I honestly don’t see many surprises. Chase Elliott and Josh Berry will be newcomers to the Truck Series this week. Elliott will step into the #24 truck with GMS Racing that are among the top tier teams in the series. Meanwhile, Berry will be stepping into the #25 truck with Rackley W.A.R. Previously, Timothy Peters was the driver of the #25 truck and made all 10 prior starts this season. Just recently, Rackley W.A.R. announced they had departed ways with Timothy Peters which opened the opportunity for Berry this weekend. Overall, the #25 truck has struggled this season so I would expect Berry’s ceiling to be limited.
Ultimately, Chase Elliott’s presence has improved odds for the Truck Series regulars and I think that is very beneficial for bettors. The pace that John Hunter Nemechek is setting is absolutely unreal and it is hard to leave him off lineups (if you can afford it) until something changes. I would much rather have JHN in my lineup this week as compared to Elliott who will be making his 1st start with a team that has not shown the same elite speed. Aside from the top two favorites, I would pay close attention to Sheldon Creed. The #2 team rolled out a brand new truck at Charlotte and was wicked fast before they get into trouble. The team had to be impressed by the raw speed and if they can back it up again; Creed has some sharp value among the top guys.
In H2H match-ups, I have to throw out Ross Chastain’s name after finishes of 7th (Atlanta) and 2nd (Kansas) in his only two starts this year; both of which came at 1.5 mile venues. Based on Chastain’s current odds, he should provide value against the 2nd-tier level drivers. Additionally, I believe Todd Gilliland is among the sharper H2H plays this week and perhaps has flown under the radar. Despite the win at COTA, Gilliland has actually performed really well over the last several races by recording finishes of 6th or better in 5 of his last 6 starts. After the win at COTA, the #38 truck showed quality speed again at Charlotte which is very similar to this week’s venue at Texas. Lastly, my sharpest H2H pick this week includes the young talent of Carson Hocevar. Hocevar has produced finishes of 3rd (Darlington), 7th (COTA), and 2nd (Charlotte) in the last 3 races. This kid has seemingly come out of nowhere in recent weeks and showing some serious potential. It helps that Niece Motorsports is showing better speed but Hocevar’s recent success is largely being overlooked.
Drivers to Fade
I always like to stay as honest as possible in my write-ups and I must admit that I am having trouble finding true “fade” candidates for this Saturday’s SpeedyCash.com 220. We are reaching that point in the season where odds are pretty well placed. Based on current odds, I am not identifying anyone that just screams to be faded. Instead, I will list a few drivers that I believe are overvalued who may yield a fade opportunity in the correct match-up pairing. Those drivers that appear to be overvalued include Ben Rhodes, Drew Dollar, and Stewart Friesen. Friesen has shown solid speed on the intermediate tracks but seems to never get the finishes that dictate the performance. Meanwhile, Drew Dollar continues to be overvalued each week simply because he is behind the wheel of KBM equipment. For Ben Rhodes, I just have not seen the performance on the 1.5 mile tracks that constitutes being the 4th-5th betting favorite on the board. Simply put, these drivers appear to be overvalued going into Saturday.
Draftkings SpeedyCash.com 220 Optimal Lineup
2021 SpeedyCash.com 220 Betting Picks
*Final*
John Hunter Nemechek +300 (1.5 units)Sheldon Creed +700 (1 unit)
H2H Match-Ups and Props
*Following odds courtesy of BetAnySportsTodd Gilliland -105 over Drew Dollar (3 units)
Carson Hocevar -130 over Johnny Sauter (2 units)
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