2021 Alsco Uniforms 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday May 29th, 1:00PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

NASCAR’s Xfinity Series will step into the spotlight on Saturday at Charlotte Motor Speedway for the running of the Alsco Uniforms 300. Unlike the Camping World Truck Series that competed last night and the Sunday’s Coca Cola 600 that will also take place in the late afternoon hours, Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 300 will take place in the middle of the day which potentially presents the most difficult racing conditions of the entire weekend. Despite the threat of rain, Saturday’s forecast will be hot and yield slick track conditions to put Xfinity Series’ drivers to the test. As we move one step closer to Sunday’s Coca Cola 600, let’s take a moment to discuss Saturday’s Alsco Uniforms 300 and the best betting options to consider!

For upfront clarity, I am going to keep this preview relatively brief compared to normal analysis. The Xfinity Series has been the most difficult series to predict over the season and I personally don’t find odds favorable towards bettors. Additionally, it has been over 2 months since the Xfinity Series last competed at a 1.5 mile venue which means teams have had ample time to make adjustments to the intermediate programs. Traditionally, I handicap the 1.5 mile venues based around performance trends. Obviously I include other handicapping angles but current performance trends are most important for tracks like Charlotte. Due to the timeline since the Xfinity Series last competed at a 1.5 mile venue, I am not even sure if we can put a high level of confidence in those performance metrics.

Xfinity Series Relative Loop Data

Along the lines of consistency with all of this week’s previews, I have compiled loop data stats for each series at the 1.5 mile venues to evaluate current performance trends on the intermediate layouts. Again, I am not as confident these trends will be as strong with the Xfinity Series last competing in March at a 1.5 mile venue (Atlanta). I don’t want to overlook the data metrics below because they are obviously valuable but keep the following in mind; 2 of the 3 tracks included in this data set (Homestead and Atlanta) yielded extremely significant tire wear which put heavy emphasis on drivers’ ability to manage tire wear. Charlotte, though similar in layout to Atlanta, does not have the rigid surface like the tracks previously mentioned. Instead, Charlotte is a really fast high-banked 1.5 mile track with a lot of grip. Instead of long run speed and tire wear concerns, the main ingredient at Charlotte will be raw aerodynamic speed. My expectations deviate, to some degree, from the loop data below because the track style is different from the majority of the data set. I’ll explain more below:

*Loop data compiled from 3 races held at 1.5 mile venues (Las Vegas, Homestead, and Atlanta)

Driver	Avg. Rating	Avg. Start	Avg. Mid Race	Avg. Finish	Avg. Pos.	Pass Diff.	Fastest Lap	Laps Led	Total Laps
A.J Allmendinger	116.4	12.3	12.0	7.0	9.3	89	59	89	542
Daniel Hemric	109.2	5.3	8.0	5.0	7.3	25	41	74	542
Austin Cindric	106.8	1.3	10.3	7.7	8.7	10	49	112	542
Justin Haley	104.4	9.0	5.3	7.7	7.0	46	39	10	542
Noah Gragson	100.9	29.0	9.3	14.3	9.7	108	21	34	528
Justin Allgaier	100.5	20.7	7.3	18.0	12.0	40	31	51	461
Brandon Jones	97.6	8.0	16.3	14.3	13.0	40	18	34	511
Michael Annett	96.7	19.3	7.7	9.0	9.3	42	3	0	542
Harrison Burton	94.2	10.0	16.3	17.3	13.3	33	17	1	433
Myatt Snider	85.3	6.7	11.7	14.7	15.0	-20	4	5	533
Jeb Burton	84.8	4.0	7.7	13.3	12.3	-43	1	0	541
Riley Herbst	81.4	16.0	17.7	19.3	18.7	38	5	0	398
Brett Moffitt	80.3	7.0	21.0	27.3	18.3	34	10	6	399
Josh Berry	80.3	17.0	14.0	18.7	16.3	57	22	0	509
Jeremy Clements	78.9	9.0	14.3	13.0	14.7	-9	1	3	541
Ryan Sieg	73.9	22.7	20.7	19.0	19.0	64	1	0	415
Santina Ferrucci	69.2	18.7	25.7	19.7	22.7	-38	9	0	540
Tommy Joe Martins	65.5	21.0	16.7	17.3	19.0	-82	0	0	542
Brandon Brown	65.5	12.0	20.0	26.3	20.0	-54	3	4	512
Alex Labbe	62.0	26.0	20.7	22.7	21.0	-10	0	0	523
Josh Williams	61.9	19.3	24.0	19.7	23.0	-28	0	0	541
Landon Cassill	61.5	15.0	22.0	18.3	22.0	-18	0	0	541
Jeffrey Earnhardt	59.4	30.7	23.7	20.3	22.7	3	0	0	541
Colby Howard	57.5	29.7	17.3	26.0	23.7	-43	0	6	471
Bayley Currey	52.0	29.0	27.0	27.3	26.0	14	0	0	509
Timmy Hill	50.8	22.7	30.0	24.7	27.3	-25	0	0	442
Kyle Weatherman	46.1	20.7	31.0	29.0	29.0	-36	0	0	524
Joe Graf Jr	45.4	22.0	31.3	25.0	28.3	-51	0	0	538
David Starr	44.3	35.3	29.0	26.0	28.0	-13	0	0	538
Jesse Little	43.0	27.7	26.0	27.0	27.3	-54	0	0	537
Jade Buford	42.6	26.3	28.7	25.7	29.0	-75	3	0	536
Ryan Vargas	42.0	34.7	28.0	26.3	28.7	-57	0	0	538
Chad Finchum	40.7	35.3	34.3	30.3	30.0	9	0	0	436
Dexter Bean	39.8	25.7	30.3	26.0	31.0	-45	0	0	533
Gray Gaulding	34.8	31.7	34.3	30.7	33.0	-27	0	0	526
Matt Mills	31.7	29.0	36.3	34.3	34.0	-31	0	0	406

Friday’s Practices and Expectations

As we move into expectations, it is important to note that several high-caliber drivers will be competing on Saturday including the likes of Chase Briscoe, Tyler Reddick, Ty Dillon, and Ty Gibbs. Despite the prestigious names, I am not sure if Briscoe or Reddick will be threats for the victory. Both drivers are providing supportive type narratives to the teams they are driving for this weekend. Reddick will be driving for Jordan Anderson Racing in just their 2nd start and Briscoe will be stepping behind the #99 car for B.J McLeod Motorsports. WIth that being said, I will admit that I was surprised by Cole Custer’s performance at COTA last week in the first start for Jordan Anderson Racing so we can’t completely rule out Reddick’s chances.

In Friday’s lone practice session, Riley Herbst topped the board with a lap of 178.436mph. Herbst was followed by Daniel Hemric, A.J Allmendinger, Ty Gibbs, Brandon Jones, Austin Cindric, and Chase Briscoe among the top 7 drivers. If you noticed in the loop data set above, Allmendinger actually leads all drivers with the highest average rating (116.4) at the 1.5 mile venues. Personally, I think Allmendinger deserves a nod of approval along with the Joe Gibbs Racing cars. I mentioned above that Charlotte is very dependent on raw aerodynamic speed and that is exactly what we have seen out of the JGR brigade, Allmendinger, and Cindric throughout the season. Needless to say, it is not surprising to see those drivers at the top of the board this week over guys like Briscoe, Reddick, and some of the J.R. Motorsports drivers.

It would be irresponsible if I did not mention track conditions during Friday’s practice session. Rain had come through the Charlotte area before Friday’s Xfinity Series practice and by the time track drying efforts concluded; practice was held on a relatively cool and green (non-rubbered) surface. Therefore, expectations for Saturday will be much different. With that being said, Ty Gibbs was wicked fast in Friday’s practice session. Despite being 4th on the board, Gibbs lap times were impressive throughout each lap in the session. Teammates Daniel Hemric and Brandon Jones were also trending positively which solidifies my argument towards backing JGR this weekend.

On the other side of the spectrum, I was least impressed with the speed from Harrison Burton and Noah Gragson. Burton kills my JGR argument but honestly he has been the least impressive JGR driver this season. I mentioned earlier that I don’t think this would be a great weekend for J.R. Motorsports drivers but I was still surprised that Noah Gragson was so far off in terms of consistent lap speed. I’m going to assume the team was struggling with handling issues though I did not see that topic reported. I am also assuming Gragson will be better on Saturday especially if the track slickens but the #9 team was definitely struggling in Friday’s session.

Targets and Fades

For “H2H” purposes, I am going to list a chart format this week instead of long written out responses. Hopefully this provides additional insight to everyone as needed. With all of the practices and weekend activities, I am running short on time and putting majority focus into Sunday’s Coca Cola 600.

Rank	Targets	Fades
1	Ty Gibbs	Chase Briscoe
2	A.J Allmendinger	Harrison Burton
3	Daniel Hemric	Noah Gragson
4	Ryan Sieg	Jeb Burton
5	Brandon Jones	Austin Cindric

Draftkings Alsco Uniforms 300 Optimal Lineup

2021 Alsco Uniforms 300 Race Picks

*Final

Ty Gibbs +600 (1 unit)
Daniel Hemric +700 (1 unit)

H2H Matchups and Props

AJ Allmendinger +100 over Austin Cindric (2 units)
Daniel Hemric -110 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Brandon Jones -110 over Harrison Burton (2 units)