2021 EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Race Picks

NASCAR Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday May 23rd, 2021. 2:30PM (EST) at Circuit of the Americas
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

For the first time in history, NASCAR’s Cup Series will take the green flag at Circuit of the Americas in the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix. Located on the southside of Austin, Texas, Circuit of the Americas (COTA) is a well-known road course that has hosted events from several notorious racing series including IndyCar, Formula One, and others. NASCAR’s former Rolex Sports Car Series even hosted an event at COTA back in 2013 before the series was disbanded. Now for the first time, the Cup Series’ best will have a chance to tackle the most difficult road course on the schedule and place NASCAR’s footprint on the 3.426 mile, 20 turn spectacle that is Circuit of the Americas!

For handicapping, this will be the 2nd event this season where we don’t have any previous track history to analyze. The other event was back in March when the Cup Series debuted on Bristol’s dirt surface. Admittedly, these events are relatively rare in NASCAR where we approach a venue that does not yield any prior history to consider in the realm of betting. Fortunately, NASCAR’s increasing interest in road course venues has provided additional data over the last few years that will be useful for handicapping purposes. The implementation of Charlotte’s ROVAL, Daytona’s Road Course, and even the Indianapolis G.P have all been products of NASCAR’s desire for more road course racing. Therefore, we will take a look at prior road course performance and discuss the similarities/differences to expect this week at Circuit of the Americas.

COTA Layout

The first thing that everyone should consider this weekend is the 20 turn layout that compiles the 3.426 mile racing surface at Circuit of the Americas. The 20-turns are the most among NASCAR’s road courses and the length of the 3.426 miles ranks 2nd behind Daytona’s Road Course. I have tried to find different ways to describe COTA to make it easy for everyone. Daytona’s Road Course is basically a bigger ROVAL which made preparation relatively easy when the Cup Series made their debut in 2019. For COTA, it’s not that simple. COTA has a little bit of everything. For starters, drivers will attack the 3.426 mile layout in a counterclockwise direction that is similar to the ROVAL and Daytona’s RC. Outside of that simple comparison to the ROVAL and Daytona, I would suggest the rest of the layout is more comparable to both Watkins Glen and Sonoma.

After taking the green flag, drivers will make a steep 133 foot climb before getting hard on the brakes and making a near 120 degree turn to start the journey on the southside of the course. After exiting turn 1, the southside of the course from 2-10 are reminiscent of Sonoma by aggressively attacking sweeping “S” shaped corners at high speeds. Additionally, turn 11 mirrors turn 11 at Sonoma which will be the slowest part of the race track. In this turn, drivers will prepare for an acute “U” shaped transition from northbound to southwest. Despite the slow transition, this will be an important part of the track especially on corner exit as it leads to the biggest straightaway in NASCAR. From turns 11-12, it is over 1-mile of straight asphalt that will produce extremely fast speeds. If drivers struggle on corner exit from turn 11, they will pay for it throughout the speediest part of the race track.

After we get through the “Sonoma” end of the speedway and drivers complete the long straightaway, drivers will enter the “Watkins Glen” portion of the speedway. Turns 13-17 feature both an inner and outer loop that draws similar comparisons to the Glen. Turns 17-19 are nearly an ideal inverted version of turns 8-11 at the Glen which will lead drivers to the final turn (20) which will be another critical part of the track. Turn 20 is another sharp near 90 degree type turn that will feature the final passing zone and will be very crucial to establish speed down the frontstretch which is the 2nd speediest portion of the entire track.

Obviously you may be wondering what in the heck does all of this mean and why am I taking the time to describe all corners of the track when a visual probably provides more substance? Well, visuals are always great but sometimes you really need to dissect a track to understand how drivers will attack this speedway. If you don’t understand the intrinsic details, it will be impossible to align that to the drivers skill sets which are needed for sharp predictions. Lastly, this breakdown of a lap at COTA tells me that drivers/teams need to have everything from good handling machines, fast top-end speed, and ultimately a driver that is going to get the best out of their equipment. This road course is truly challenging and there are many ways to make mistakes at this place. Most importantly, the surface is worn out and tire wear (long run speed) will be a very critical aspect to deciding the outcome of this event

Road Course Stats

I did not have any specific data elements to compile for loop data this week because as I described above; COTA is truly a unique road course. Instead, I extracted statistics from the last 9 road course events dating back to the start of the 2018 season. I am not going to spend a ton of time talking about these metrics as I believe the visual below is sufficient. I feel like the majority of what these statistics indicate is already handicapping road course knowledge. We know Chase Elliott has been the best driver at the road courses and we also know that Martin Truex has been 2nd best. Therefore, I don’t really see many surprises in the top-half of this data outside of the fact that Kurt Busch has been really solid at the road course venues with a 9.44 average finishing position which is 5th best on the list.

Driver	Average Rating	Average Finish	Races	Wins	Top 5’s	Top 10’s	Laps Led	Average Start
Chase Elliott	125.7	8.11	9	5	6	7	275	4.9
Martin Truex Jr.	120.6	5.44	9	2	5	7	142	7.6
Kevin Harvick	100.3	7.89	9	0	2	7	69	10.4
Kyle Larson	96	15.14	7	0	0	3	60	4.6
Denny Hamlin	95.2	9.11	9	0	4	5	31	10.7
Christopher Bell	95.1	15.33	3	1	1	1	11	20.7
Kurt Busch	91.8	9.44	9	0	3	6	10	15.7
Kyle Busch	90.6	21.33	9	0	3	3	38	8.8
William Byron	88.8	17.78	9	0	0	4	71	10.9
Ryan Blaney	86.7	12.67	9	1	4	5	30	15.9
Brad Keselowski	85.1	14.33	9	0	2	3	39	14.4
Alex Bowman	82.9	9.67	9	0	2	5	2	15.7
Erik Jones	82.8	13.56	9	0	3	5	2	19.2
Cole Custer	82.5	14.67	3	0	0	1	0	22.3
Joey Logano	82.2	15	9	0	2	5	15	9.3
Aric Almirola	73.4	15.67	9	0	0	2	0	15
Chris Buescher	70.7	14.67	9	0	1	1	0	18.3
Daniel Suarez	69.9	19.56	9	0	1	1	2	21.1
Michael McDowell	68.8	17.78	9	0	0	2	0	17.9
Matt DiBenedetto	67.5	17.56	9	0	1	2	0	22.7
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	65.5	19.44	9	0	0	0	2	21.4
Tyler Reddick	64.9	22.67	3	0	0	0	0	19.3
Ryan Preece	64.3	22	6	0	0	1	8	18.2
Ryan Newman	59.7	20.89	9	0	0	1	0	21.6
Austin Dillon	58.6	26.63	8	0	0	0	0	21
Chase Briscoe	52.7	32	1	0	0	0	0	18
Bubba Wallace	48	26.67	9	0	0	0	0	26.4
Anthony Alfredo	46.3	22	1	0	0	0	0	31
Corey LaJoie	42.6	30.5	6	0	0	0	0	25.7
James Davison	42.3	27.33	3	0	0	0	0	38
Ross Chastain	40.2	29.5	6	0	0	0	0	30.3
Justin Haley	37.7	29	2	0	0	0	0	26.5
Garrett Smithley	34.9	33	3	0	0	0	0	32
Timmy Hill	32.4	32.8	5	0	0	0	0	35.4
J.J. Yeley	32.1	32.8	5	0	0	0	0	33.6
Josh Bilicki	31.8	35	5	0	0	0	0	31
Cody Ware	30.7	32.5	4	0	0	0	0	32
Quin Houff	28.2	33.67	3	0	0	0	0	29.7

Practice Observations

Finally, I get to make practice observations! I miss this part of my handicapping preparation and glad bettors have the opportunity to observe some pre-race data this week. With that being said, I’m not sure if we really learned the most realistic expectations from today’s practice. We finally had the opportunity to hold a practice session and drivers had to compete on an extremely wet and rain-soaked surface. Lap times were very slow due to the wet conditions and I’m honestly not sure how much I trust practice observations. Some expected names were at the top of the speed charts including the likes of Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott. William Byron and Joey Logano were actually the top two in fastest times despite either driver having a very illustrious road course resume.

Meanwhile, it seems like some other drivers were taking things very cautiously. Kevin Harvick was listed all the way back in the 32nd position. We know Harvick should have more speed after a really impressive effort in today’s Pit Boss 250 with B.J. McLeod Motorsports. Additionally, guys like A.J Allmendinger, Martin Truex, and Daniel Suarez were all outside the top 20 in fastest lap times. We know those 3 drivers have tremendous road course backgrounds so I am not buying into the single lap speed narrative witnessed in today’s practices which also took place on relatively awful track conditions. As a result, I am not going to spend too much time considering practice data from today even if the forecast suggests rain could be a factor again on Sunday.

Betting Targets

Without question, Chase Elliott is the best road course driver in the sport and by a fairly solid margin. To make matters worse, all drivers from Hendrick Motorsports have captured victories this season and Elliott (the reigning champion) is still searching for that 1st victory. Rest assured, the #9 team have this event circled as their best opportunity and nobody should discount their chances. With that being said, I also believe that it would be absolutely foolish to ignore Martin Truex as an even better odds option. Remember the road course utilizes the same 750HP package that has produced Truex’s 3 victories and while the #19 team missed the setup last week, I would not expect that to be a trend from what we have witnessed thus far in 2021. Not to mention, Truex is also one of the best drivers in the sport at managing tires and that will be an important component to this race.

Aside from the two obvious choices, I believe Kyle Busch’s stock is definitely growing after a relatively dominant debut at COTA in today’s Pit Boss 250. Busch recorded his 98th Xfinity Series win this afternoon after leading 35 of 46 laps and honestly it was not even close. Busch was by far the fastest driver on the track and excelled on the long-run. Obviously, it is a completely different race tomorrow but don’t underestimate the importance of track time on this new layout. I know Busch’s odds have decreased significantly in the last several hours but he still has decent value.

Outside of Rowdy, my focus turns to H2H betting targets in the realm of match-ups. A few of my favorite drivers in the realm of match-ups include Kurt Busch, Christopher Bell, and Ross Chastain. I mentioned Kurt Busch’s stats on the road course earlier and I still think he holds much better value than the drivers in his range of betting odds. Christopher Bell has been a very good road course driver throughout his career and while the cat may be out of the bag following his win at Daytona; he still deserves betting respect. Lastly, I think Ross Chastain may be among the sharper H2H choices this week. Chastain showed a lot of speed in today’s Xfinity Series race despite the inferior equipment factor. Furthermore, Chastain backed up that speed in today’s practice with the 7th fast lap of the session. Chastain has been showing improvement in terms of performance in recent weeks and this may be an excellent spot to have a breakout (top 10 type) performance.

Drivers to Fade

I have several drivers that I always keep in mind when the road courses appear on the schedule for fade reasons. Austin Dillon is one of the drivers that stays at the top of that list and if I can find value fading the #3 car; rest assured I will take it. In 17 career starts at road courses, Dillon has never recorded a top 10 finish and only has 1 top 15 finish in the last 10 starts. On a new surface where experience will not pay any dividends, this should be an excellent spot to fade Dillon who is simply not good at this style of racing. I would also throw Ryan Newman and Tyler Reddick into similar categories as drivers that simply do not gel with this style of racing. Like Dillon, the problem will be finding value on the other side of those match-ups.

I don’t usually play the speculation game but if rain is prominent in the Austin area on Sunday; I believe that really hurts a few of the top names like Martin Truex Jr and Denny Hamlin. It was supposed to be a rain-filled afternoon at Circuit of the Americas today but the skies cleared for the Xfinity Series race. So while I will not pull the trigger on speculative weather conditions until much closer to race time, we have to keep in mind that this race could be impacted by Mother Nature. Lastly, let me throw out one final name for sharp fade consideration. The driver that I will label a sharp fade includes Joey Logano. Logano finished 2nd on the speed charts in today’s practices and his odds are already lower than they should be. Logano has struggled at road courses especially in situations where it was his first performance at those venues. This is a very difficult venue and without any experience, I would strongly expect Logano to be a mere average driver on Sunday and definitely not one that should be approaching “favorite” style betting odds.

Draftkings EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Optimal Lineup

2021 EchoPark Texas Grand Prix Betting Picks

*Final*

Kyle Busch +1000 (.75 unit)
Kyle Larson +1200 (.5 unit)
Kevin Harvick +2200 (.5 unit)
Kurt Busch +3300 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

*Match-ups and props courtesy of Bovada and MyBookie

Kyle Busch -110 over Denny Hamlin (3 units)
Kyle Larson -130 over Ryan Blaney (3 units)
Tyler Reddick -130 over Michael McDowell (3 units)
Number of Lead Lap Finishers over 29.5 -125 (2 units)