2021 Toyota Tundra 225 Race Picks

NASCAR Camping World Truck Series Betting Preview
Saturday May 22nd, 2021. 1:10PM (EST) at Circuit of the Americas
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com

The Camping World Truck Series will have the luxury of kicking off the first official race at the Circuit of the Americas on Saturday with the running of the Toyota Tundra 225. For Truck Series teams and drivers, this Saturday’s race will feature the 2nd of 4 road course venues on the revamped 2021 schedule. Circuit of the Americas is a 3.426 mile road course that has a little bit of everything. With no prior races and only one practice session on Friday, this is truly a wild card race that should offer a plethora of betting opportunities. Take a look as we breakdown Circuit of the Americas and provide our 2021 Toyota Tundra 225 race picks!

In the effort of time and to avoid repetitiveness, I am not going to spend a lot of time breaking down the layout at Circuit of the Americas (COTA). I will have a full breakdown of the layout in Sunday’s Cup Series preview that will provide more insight into the racing surface. For now, I want to put focus on both of Saturday’s races which will feature a double header between the Camping World Truck Series followed by the Xfinity Series’ running of the Pit Boss 250 at 4:00PM (EST). While several Cup Series stars will compete in the Xfinity Series race on Saturday to prepare for Sunday’s EchoPark Texas Grand Prix, the Truck Series entry list does not feature Cup Series veterans. However, there are several drivers making their first start of the season which includes former Cup Series driver Paul Menard. Menard will be piloting the #66 truck for Thorsport Racing. Meanwhile, Michele Abbate, Logan Bearden, Brad Gross, Roger Reuse and Samuel Lecomte are among several drivers making their first starts of the season.

Obviously without any overly threatening names on the entry list, most would expect the Camping World Truck Series’ regulars to thrive in Saturday’s event that will feature 143 miles and 42 overall laps. While the race is relatively short, COTA is the 2nd largest road course venue on the schedule behind Daytona. Unlike Daytona which consists mostly of the 2.5 mile oval, COTA provides a very challenging layout that features extreme elevation changes, acute corner radius, heavy braking zones, and ultimately very speedy portions of the track that should yield exciting racing. Bettors specifically should not look past the “speed” aspect. While COTA provides a challenging layout of different turns and braking points, there are very fast portions of the track that will favor the trucks that have raw speed.

Handicapping Notes

Without any track history to observe, this week’s Toyota Tundra 225 will be a unique handicapping event. Furthermore if you consider the impacts of COVID in 2020, several of the road course races were replaced. As a result, we have only witnessed two road course races in the Truck Series over the last two years which have both taken place at Daytona. We will obviously give credit to the drivers that have shown solid skills at Daytona and I will also look back at the veteran drivers that have participated in events at Canadian Tire Motorsports Park for reference as well. Ultimately, we will use those prior data elements combined with practice results to draw our conclusions this week. Additionally, we should keep good notes this week as Truck Series teams/drivers will participate at Watkins Glen and Canadian Tire Motorsports Park later this season. I would imagine Saturday’s performance should have strong similarities to those events later in the season and perhaps will prepare us for strong betting opportunities at those venues.

Friday’s Practices

Earlier today, Truck Series’ teams and drivers participated in a 50 minute practice session. At the end of the session, Zane Smith captured the top speed with a lap time of 2:17.39. Smith’s fast lap was relatively surprising based on his prior performance at road course venues. Nevertheless, Smith adapted fast to COTA’s tough layout. Behind Smith, more expected names like Sheldon Creed and Ben Rhodes were all within the top 5 on the speed charts. Rhodes is looking to build off his win at Daytona’s road course in February. Meanwhile, I believe Creed may be the best road course talent in the field and garnishes my vote for the overall top dog going into Saturday

Despite my excitement for practices, it is important to note that COTA is so big that we don’t get many consistent laps. I never like to judge practice times off fast laps but that is basically what we are dealing with this week in terms of practice observations. I did watch raw laps times which showed solid consistency from the likes of Creed, Rhodes, Gilliland, and Crafton. I already had Gilliland in my target list this week and Friday’s 50 minute session validated my early week thoughts. Outside of the top guys, I was a little surprised at John Hunter Nemechek, Austin Hill, and Derek Kraus who all appeared to be slower than expected. I think Hill is one of the better talents in the field, at this style of racing, but only posted the 12th fastest lap on the board. Nevertheless, all of these drivers will have plenty of time to find their rhythm on Saturday around this 3.426 ile layout.

Betting Targets

I remain convinced that Sheldon Creed is the overall favorite and likely best driver going into Saturday’s event. Ben Rhodes obviously deserves respect following his win at Daytona and additional speed shown in today’s practice session. Perhaps Zane Smith deserves some consideration as the only driver that was within the same lap range (actually better) than Creed but I’m just not overly confident Smith will have the consistency to pull out a victory. Perhaps Matt Crafton deserves some dark horse respect but in my betting career; Crafton never delivers when you need it

For H2H match-ups and fantasy purposes, I would encourage my audience to play close attention to the likes of Todd Gilliland, Kaz Grala, and Raphael Lessard. Gilliland and the #38 team are not getting the respect they deserve for their performance and that is reason to take notice. Gilliland has posted finishes of 6th or better in 3 of the last 4 races. More importantly, Gilliland posted his best finish (4th) of the season back at Daytona’s road course in the 2nd week of the season. I really like Gilliland’s upside in this race and because he is not getting a lot of respect; we may be able to steal value.

For Grala and Lessard, both drivers have road course experience. Grala made the most of his opportunity with the #02 truck back at Daytona which resulted in a 8th place finish and has shown a consistent trend of producing finishes that are better than the equipment he is piloting. Lastly, Lessard is the more risky option due to his inconsistency. Lessard had a strong run at Bowmanville in 2019 and finished 3rd in the inaugural Daytona road course event. In a situation where drivers do not have experience on this racing surface, I believe that plays into Lessard’s strength. I believe the #4 team can provide a relatively high ceiling despite the inconsistency risk. As a result, Lessard deserves consideration for fantasy and match-up opportunities as well.

*Sharp approval for match-up purposes: Matt Crafton and Austin Hill

Drivers to Fade

For fade options, I am vaulting Grant Enfinger and John Hunter Nemechek into the fade category this week. Nemechek is not necessarily a sharp fade option but I just think he is overvalued as a driver that is routinely the overall betting favorite. Nemechek has not shown any overly impressive skills on the road course venues and while I am sure he could produce a solid finish; I will take my chances fading him at a place like COTA where drivers do not have any prior experience to leverage.

Additionally, I would label Grant Enfinger as a strong fade in all formats. Enfinger has never been a strong road course talent through the last several years and now we have to face this new COTA layout with inferior equipment as he moves over to the #9 team this week. This is the perfect storm to fade Enfinger and find much better value on the opposite side of match-ups. Lastly, you also kind of have to consider fading Derek Kraus this week. The #19 looked relatively awful on the stopwatch and I’m not aware of much road course experience for the young driver. COTA is obviously a much more challenging venue that Daytona and perhaps his lack of road course skills are starting to show.

Draftkings Toyota Tundra 225 Optimal Lineup

2021 Toyota Tundra 225 Betting Picks

*Final*

Sheldon Creed +325 (1 unit)
Todd Gilliland +1400 (.75 unit)
Austin Hill +1500 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Todd Gilliland -110 over Parker Chase (2 units)
Sheldon Creed -130 over JHN (2 units)